For the latest natural gas weather:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/6607/
Friday's closing comments:
Surging Production Trips Up Natural Gas Futures Despite Heat
Natural gas futures lost ground during an uneventful session Friday as strong production limited the impact of sizzling temperatures forecast for key demand markets into the first week of July. "
Those sizzling temps were dialed in before Friday. You saw them every day last week, on the forecasts here. Extended maps turned cooler on Thu/Fri for the East........that's why we were lower.
for week ending June 22, 2018 | Released: June 28, 2018 at 10:30 a.m. | Next Release: July 6, 2018
| Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary textCSVJSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (06/22/17) | 5-year average (2013-17) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Region | 06/22/18 | 06/15/18 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
| East | 430 | 406 | 24 | 24 | 533 | -19.3 | 543 | -20.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| Midwest | 425 | 401 | 24 | 24 | 673 | -36.8 | 586 | -27.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| Mountain | 133 | 127 | 6 | 6 | 184 | -27.7 | 159 | -16.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| Pacific | 251 | 246 | 5 | 5 | 280 | -10.4 | 299 | -16.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| South Central | 835 | 828 | R | 7 | 7 | 1,140 | -26.8 | 988 | -15.5 | ||||||||||||||||
| Salt | 252 | 258 | -6 | -6 | 341 | -26.1 | 289 | -12.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nonsalt | 583 | 570 | R | 13 | 13 | 798 | -26.9 | 699 | -16.6 | ||||||||||||||||
| Total | 2,074 | 2,008 | R | 66 | 66 | 2,809 | -26.2 | 2,575 | -19.5 | ||||||||||||||||
| R=Revised. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
****The reported revision caused the stocks for June 15, 2018, to change from 2,004 Bcf to 2,008 Bcf. As a result, the implied net change between the weeks ending June 08 and June 15 changed from 91 Bcf to 95 Bcf.
The period below and temperatures was used for the weekly EIA number released last Thursday at 9:30am CDT:
These are the temperatures that occurred during the 7 day period that will be used for the upcoming EIA report released this week:
Looking at the price of natural gas at longer and longer time frames gives one a different(wider) perspective...........now if you are a day trader.........who cares (-:
Natural gas 3 month
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Natural gas 1 year below
Natural gas 5 years below
| Natural gas 10 years below
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Good article from last month on fundamentals in natural gas.
'Tremendous Growth' in Natural Gas Demand, Production Equals Flat Prices This Summer, Says NGSA
"An analysis of weather forecasts, the economy, consumer demand, and production and storage of natural gas points to neutral price pressure this summer, according to the Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA).
"Our expectation for flat price pressure is based on a forecast for tremendous growth in demand that is matched by even more impressive growth in production," NGSA said in its 2018 Summer Outlook for Natural Gas"
More from the article:
"NGSA expects record demand this summer to be "fueled by record growth in electric sector demand for natural gas due to massive natural gas-fired generation additions since last summer, along with temporary coal-to-gas switching" that together will add up to a 10% increase in demand from the sector compared with summer 2017. Demand from the residential and commercial sectors is expected to increase by 7% and industrial demand is expected to increase slightly as well.
At the same time, liquefied natural gas exports will increase 1.6 Bcf/d compared with last summer, and exports to Mexico will increase 0.5 Bcf/d, according to NGSA forecasts.
"When all sectors are combined, overall demand is projected to be more than 6 Bcf/d (9%) greater than the summer of 2017 and thus to place upward pressure on natural gas prices compared to last summer," NGSA said.
But that upward pressure will be met by production that "is projected to smash through previous robust levels," placing nearly equal downward pressure on prices.
In an assessment of energy markets released earlier this month, FERC said demand for gas from power generators may approach record highs this summer.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is forecasting natural gas power burn will average 35.16 Bcf/d in June, July and August, just 0.3 Bcf/d less than the record high set in summer 2016 and 3 Bcf/d higher than last year, according to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission analysis.
Using data from EIA and Energy Ventures Analysis, NGSA analyzes factors that place upward or downward pressure on natural gas prices, but does not forecast actual prices. In addition to the influence of demand and production, NGSA said expected higher gas injections into storage would place upward pressure on prices this summer, economic factors including steady growth in gross domestic product would bring neutral pressure, and weather conditions including temperatures expected to be 5% cooler than summer 2017 would produce downward pressure.
Wild card factors that could play a hand in summer natural gas prices include "an unpredicted and very active hurricane/storm season...which would mainly affect demand, since most onshore producing gas fields are not vulnerable to hurricanes," NGSA said."
You will find the comprehensive weather outlook right here:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/6607/
Note that the extended maps(6-10 day/8-14 day) are hot. Why isn't this bullish for natural gas tonight?
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
One reason is that models are LESS hot than they were last week.
The last solution of the European model is BEARISH and much cooler after day 11. The map below is for July 13th.
Forecast updates I saw earlier today vs Fri were cooler in week 1 through early week 2, but were warmer late week 2. Because the cooler changes were larger than the later warmer changes and because the cooler changes were earlier and thus more likely to verify, NG fell.