Just got off the telephone with my son. Will pass along some information with no opinion
Steel prices have exploded to the point that steel is in very short supply. If you have used your quota for the month, then you will not likely be able to buy more. Steel is available from the steel jockeys at greatly inflated prices, but buying directly from the mill is a task in and of itself. Foreign steel is inferior in quality and most buyers want domestic steel. My son buys truck load lots of slab or flat steel, then cuts and sizes in house
Agriculture demand for tractors, combines etc is projected to increase sales by 50 %. Yes that is correct. A 50 % increase in sales
Brazil is buying a lot of new machinery. However, Brazil has steep tariffs unless produced in Brazil. Well the problem is to find shipping space to ship the parts to Brazil for domestic assembly
Just this past yr I see two housing developments of considerable size for our small municipality. The folks are selling high priced houses in the big city and moving to our community and buying a new house and most times have money left over.
Lumber prices are going up a lot, vechicles cost an arm and a leg. I think my 2016 truck 4x4 is worth as much as I paid for it. My car isn't worth any thing much as it has an accident history as a deer hit it and we had to use our insurance to fix it. Nobody wants a car with accident history
China is having problems finding enough empty containers for all the goods they want to sell to the world
One person said he hoped people would switch from buying goods to spending money on doing some thing like a cruise or even a resturant meal
It seems like somebody has money to spend and they want their stuff now
Is this inflation or pent up demand
What will things look like a yr from now???. Will we be wearing masks and locked down, or spending money, what will unemployment be, will the economy be open for business.
So many things have happened in the past yr. What could happen in the coming yr in just about anything you can think about from int rates to the deficit or???
I am still on the inflation band wagon. I read a majority agree with me. if what I read about other people is any where close to being true.
Thanks for the great comments Wayne!
Nice summary. The container problem got a big writeup this week. Seems a lot got sent to Africa full of masks & PPE and just left there because the shippers had no interest in picking them up - https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/06/business/global-shipping.html
I think in 2 months everybody will be vaccinated or have a prior infection, so summer will start to chill,, and back to normal (maybe a little more careful) by fall. Except not on cruise ships. They've had years of bad publicity, norovirus, below decks exposes, etc. Not going to be nearly as many people wanting to take a cruise.
Not sure interest rates or inflation are coming back soon. There's just too much idle money sitting in banks and bonds ready to drop on any creditworthy borrower.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/63690/#66511
New positive cases(dropped from 265K/day to 50K/day) and hospitalizations peaked in January.
9%+ of the population has had verified COVID + many more never tested had it! 23%+ have been vaccinated with the 1st shot. 32%+ of the population, many that need it the most now have protection. The graphs below have been telling us that we reached herd immunity back in January!
Why are they still pushing the almost worthless cloth masks instead of the ones that actually protect people, the N95 masks?
Buy and wear ONLY N95 masks if you have not been vaccinated. I had no problems after being vaccinated, my wife got pretty sick after the 2nd shot but bounced right back.
Find this data here: https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en
So happy you got the shot!
I was walking yesterday on a suddenly perfect Spring Day after a few of freezing, and ran into a 79 year old chap who was just skipping with joy after getting his second dose.
Odd how the population sorted out:
10% - Meddlesome gits who want to enforce pointless rules
30% - Anti mask crazies
60% - More or less understand risk & just want to get through this healthy
At least where I live. YMMV
Amazing how awesome that it was for some of us to get vaccinated!
I think your assessment of different reactions from people to wearing the masks is right on.
Wayne. Everything worthwhile is in short supply. From toilet paper to electronics.
Higher quality steel has inflated by at least 30%. Expected to go higher by local sources. Aluminum and copper have been going up since covid set in last spring. Almost doubled in price.
Asphalt used in shingle manufacturing, is causing the prices of shingles to go up 10% on 4/1. And expected to go up even more through the summer. Don't know how much, as oil has been going up since Obiden got elected. Up over 50% already. And shows no sign of slowing down. And you know what that will mean for gasoline and other oil related products.
Lumber has doubled in price. And more. Whether stick or plywood. I remember when it did this back in the 90's with the great owl protests in the northwest. Lumber nearly doubled. It took over 3 years for wood products to settle back down again.
I remember when farmers would wear a machine slap out. They would repair it until it could no longer be repaired. Of course, they didn't have the "disposable" attitude that society has today. I do know a few farmers that replace their machinery every 3-4 years. Why? Because of the new technology in the tractors and combines. It's not that they will necessarily do a better job than the older equipment. But it might save a few hours of labor in a season. GPS guidance and such.
Low interest rates and more printed money, is driving the housing market now. Especially with new subdivisions popping up as fast as they can. Yes, people want to move out of the inner city, because tax rates in larger cities are going up. With no resulting benefits. Only a further drain on their own resources. Can't blame them. This will eventually backfire, due to the unlimited spending by the dems in congress. Fiat money being spent to "benefit" foreign countries, to be laundered back through to them by "donations". It's how you become a multimillionaire on a congressional salary. The debt accrual due to this, is immense. And this debt is no longer just on our children, it's being saddled on our grandchildren now.
Where will all this lead in the future? To a worldwide restructuring. For those countries that have already conditioned their people to poverty via the state, it will be like every other day in their lives. For those who have lived better....
As for those of you who are in total praise of the vaccine, more power to you, I wish you well. Personally, I'd rip out the throat of the person trying to give it to me. I don't care what the CDC has to say about it. They are compromised. I go to deeper sources.