INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - March 5, 2021, 7:57 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Friday, March 5, 2021  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. January U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services

 



 

 

                       Trade Balance (USD) (expected -67.5B; previous -66.61B)

 



 

 

                       Exports (USD) (previous 189.96B)

 



 

 

                       Exports, M/M%

 



 

 

                       Imports (USD) (previous 256.57B)

 



 

 

                       Imports, M/M%

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. February U.S. Employment Report

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +218K; previous +49K)

 



 

 

                       Unemployment Rate (expected 6.3%; previous 6.3%)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 29.96)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.06)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.20%)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +5.3%; previous +5.38%)

 



 

 

                       Overall Workweek (previous 35)

 



 

 

                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0.3)

 



 

 

                       Government Payrolls (previous +43K)

 



 

 

                       Private Payroll (previous +6K)

 



 

 

                       Participation Rate (previous 61.4%)

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg (previous -250K)

 



 

 

3:00 PM ET. January Consumer Credit

 



 

 

                       Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (expected +12.0B; previous +9.7B)

 



 

 

Monday, March 8, 2021  

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. February Employment Trends Index

 



 

 

                       ETI (previous 99.27)

 



 

 

                       ETI, Y/Y%

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. January Monthly Wholesale Trade

 



 

 

                       Inventories, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 



 

 

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was slightly lower in late-overnight trading as it extends the decline off February's high.The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 25% retracement level of the March-February-rally crossing at 12,169.99 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,309.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 12,937.85. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,141.45. First support is the overnight low crossing at 12,304.50. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the March-February-rally crossing at 12,169.99.



The March S&P 500 was slightly higher in late-overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, February's low crossing at 3656.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3876.99 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3876.99. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 3959.25. First support is Thursday's low  crossing at 3720.50. Second support is February's low crossing at 3656.50. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off September's high, monthly support crossing at 155-05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 161-20 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 159-01. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 161-20. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 156-08. Second support is long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 155-05.



June T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off the January 27th high, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 131.278 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 134.081 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 133.080. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 134.081. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 131.310. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 131.278. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



April crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the October-2018 high crossing at $67.23 is the next upside target. Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at $59.24 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $65.48. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $67.23. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $59.24. Second support is the February 12th low crossing at $57.31.    



April heating oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signals that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $200.04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $181.78 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $193.80. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $200.04. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $181.78. Second support is the February 12th low crossing at $171.81.



April unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $189.41 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $204.11 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $204.11. Second resistance is the October 8th 2018 high crossing at $221.41. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $189.41. Second support is the February 12th low crossing at $175.76. 



April Henry natural gas was slightly lower overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.725 would signal that a trend change has taken place. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.857 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.857. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 3.060. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.725. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-February rally crossing at 2.596.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was higher in overnight trading as it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-January-decline crossing at $92.59 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $90.47 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the September-January-decline crossing at $91.93. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-January-decline crossing at $92.59. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $90.47. Second support is February's low crossing at $89.68.



The March Euro was lower overnight as it renewed the decline off January's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at $118.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $121.46 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $120.94. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $121.46. First support is the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at $119.18. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at $118.22.

 

The March British Pound was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3919 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off September's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2020-decline crossing at 1.4577 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3985. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.4245. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3740. Second support is February's low crossing at 1.3568.  



The March Swiss Franc was slightly higher in late-overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.0716 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0960 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0960. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1073. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.0742. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.0716. 

 

The March Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish  signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $78.64 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off February's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $80.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $80.19. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $80.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $78.64. Second support is January's low crossing at  $77.63.  



The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 0.0918 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0944 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0938. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0944. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.0921. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 0.0918.

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off January's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1634.70. is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1779.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1748.40. Second resistance is 20-day moving average crossing at $1779.30. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1634.70. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1533.30.



May silver was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at $24.059. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $27.077 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $27.077. Second resistance is the February 23rd high crossing at $28.470. First support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at $25.111. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at $24.059.  



May copper was higher overnight it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.9764 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off October's low, the August-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 4.5400 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 4.3755. Second resistance is the August-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 4.5400. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.9764. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.7490.   



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



May corn was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the February 11th low crossing at $5.23 1/4 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off February's low, February's high crossing at $5.72 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $5.72. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.36. First support is the February 11th low crossing at $5.23 1/4. Second support is the the 25% retracement level of the August-February-rally crossing at $5.14.     



May wheat was lower overnight and trading below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.51 1/2. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.51 1/2 would open the door for a possible test of February's low crossing at $6.28 1/2. If May resumes the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at $6.93 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $6.88 1/2. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $6.93. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.51 1/2. Second support is February's low crossing at $6.28 1/2. 

 

May Kansas City wheat was lower overnight as it extends Thursday's breakout below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.24 3/4. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.24 3/4 would open the door for a possible test of February's low crossing at $6.08 1/4. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.37 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the rally off February's low, the December-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.05 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $6.64. Second resistance is the December-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.05 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.24 3/4. Second support is February's low crossing at $6.08 1/4. 



May Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at $6.62 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.29 3/4 would open the door for a larger-degree decline into early-March. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $6.58 3/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $6.62. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.29 3/4. Second support is the January 25th low crossing at $6.15.       

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



May soybeans higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past eight-days.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.92 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If May resumes the rally above February's high crossing at $14.45 3/4, the 75% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $15.39 1/2 on the monthly continuation chart is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $14.45 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $15.39 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.92. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.64 1/2.  



May soybean meal was slightly lower overnight trading as it extends the trading range of the past six-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the January 25th low crossing at $413.40 would signal a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for a possible test of the 38% retracement level of August-January rally crossing at $396.90. Closes above the February 9th high crossing at $442.10 would mark an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is the February 9th high crossing at $442.10. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $463.60. First support is February's low crossing at $413.40. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $396.90.       


May soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends this winter's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 53.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 47.58 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 51.77. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 53.45. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 49.57. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 47.58.      


LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



April hogs closed down $0.75 at $87.18. 



April hogs closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $84.92 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April renews the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $92.25 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $90.68. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $92.25. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $84.92. Second support is the February 18th low crossing at $83.62. 



April cattle closed down $0.80 at $118.60 



April cattle closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If April extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the October-February-rally crossing at $117.72 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $122.37 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $122.372. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $126.70. First support is today's low crossing at $118.50. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-February-rally crossing at $117.72. 



April Feeder cattle closed down $2.13 at $139.17. 


April Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at $135.03 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 142.66 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at $145.80. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $147.00. First support today's low crossing at $138.40. Second support is January's low crossing at $135.03.          



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



May coffee closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.04 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off February's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at 14.42 is the next upside target.        



May cocoa closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 87% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 27.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.04 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.          



May sugar closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If May renews the rally off last-April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 18.42 is the next upside target.     



May cotton closed lower on Thursday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 89.09 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 83.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 90.59 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.      

Comments
By metmike - March 5, 2021, 11:59 a.m.
Like Reply

thanks tallpine!


Thanks tallpine!

natural gas got clobbered by and incredibly bearish EIA report:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/65814/


Corn export sales were horrible:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/66151/


USDA next week:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/66245/


South American weather:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/62048/