KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, March 4, 2021
7:30 AM ET. February Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous -6.74%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 755K; previous 730K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -111K)
Continuing Claims (previous 4419000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -101K)
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Revised Productivity & Costs
Non-Farm Productivity (expected -4.7%; previous +4.6%)
Unit Labor Costs (expected +6.7%; previous -6.6%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 599.2K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 238.7K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 182.5K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. January Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders, M/M% (expected +2.0%; previous +1.1%)
Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +1.3%)
Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +1.4%)
Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1943B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -338B)
12:00 PM ET. February Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, March 5, 2021
8:30 AM ET. January U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Trade Balance (USD) (expected -67.5B; previous -66.61B)
Exports (USD) (previous 189.96B)
Exports, M/M%
Imports (USD) (previous 256.57B)
Imports, M/M%
8:30 AM ET. February U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +218K; previous +49K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 6.3%; previous 6.3%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 29.96)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.06)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.20%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +5.3%; previous +5.38%)
Overall Workweek (previous 35)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0.3)
Government Payrolls (previous +43K)
Private Payroll (previous +6K)
Participation Rate (previous 61.4%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg (previous -250K)
3:00 PM ET. January Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (expected +12.0B; previous +9.7B)
Monday, March 8, 2021
10:00 AM ET. February Employment Trends Index
ETI (previous 99.27)
ETI, Y/Y%
10:00 AM ET. January Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high.The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 12,491.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,372.44 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,372.44. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 13,900.50. First support is January's low crossing at 12,491.25. Second support is the December 10th low crossing at 12,217.00.
The March S&P 500 was lower overnight.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3813.12 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of February's low crossing at 3656.50. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3883.39 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3883.39. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 3959.25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3813.12. Second support is February's low crossing at 3656.50.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were steady to lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 163-22 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off August's high, a test of the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 157-20 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 161-05. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 163-22. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 157-23. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 157-20.
March T-notes were slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 135.171 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off the January 27th high, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 131.278 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 134.196. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 135.171. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 133.105. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 131.278.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
April crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April resumes the rally off November's low, the October-2018 high crossing at $67.23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $60.03 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $63.79. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $67.23. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $60.03. Second support is the February 12th low crossing at $57.31.
April heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates above the 20-day moving average crossing at $180.20. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signals that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $180.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If April renews the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $200.04 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $191.30. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $200.04. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $180.20. Second support is the February 12th low crossing at $171.81.
April unleaded gas was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $187.63 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April resumes the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $204.11 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $198.94. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $204.11. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $187.63. Second support is the February 12th low crossing at $175.76.
April Henry natural gas was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.867 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.725 would signal that a trend change has taken place. First resistance resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.867. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 3.060. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.725. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-February rally crossing at 2.685.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was higher in overnight trading as it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, February's high crossing at $91.61 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $90.43 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $91.41. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $91.61. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $90.43. Second support is February's low crossing at $89.68.
The March Euro was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, February's low crossing at $119.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $121.54 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-February-decline crossing at $122.69. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-February-decline crossing at $123.18. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $119.94. Second support is February's low crossing at $119.60.
The March British Pound was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3916 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off September's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2020-decline crossing at 1.4577 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.4245. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2020-decline crossing at 1.4577. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3916. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3735.
The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight and has broken out below the weekly uptrend line as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.0716 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1091 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.1004. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1091. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.0808. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.0716.
The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $78.63 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off February's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $80.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $80.19. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $80.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $78.63. Second support is January's low crossing at $77.63.
The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 0.0926 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0946 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0941. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0946. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.0931. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 0.0926.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off January's high,the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1634.70. is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1785.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1758.40. Second resistance is 20-day moving average crossing at $1784.90. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1634.70. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1533.30.
May silver was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the November-January-uptrend line crossing near $26.004 would confirm a trend change and open the door for a test of the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at $25.111. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $27.156 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $27.155. Second resistance is the February 23rd high crossing at $28.470. First support is the November-January-uptrend line crossing near $26.004. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at $25.111.
May copper was sharply lower overnight it the decline off February's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.9500 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off October's low, the August-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 4.5400 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 4.3755. Second resistance is the August-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 4.5400. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.9500. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.7391.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was steady to lower overnight as the market continues to struggle for direction. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the February 11th low crossing at $5.23 1/4 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off February's low, February's high crossing at $5.72 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $5.72. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.36. First support is the February 11th low crossing at $5.23 1/4. Second support is the the 25% retracement level of the August-February-rally crossing at $5.14.
May wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.50 3/4. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.50 3/4 would open the door for a possible test of February's low crossing at $6.28 1/2. If May resumes the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at $6.93 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $6.88 1/2. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $6.93. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.50 3/4. Second support is February's low crossing at $6.28 1/2.
May Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.24. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.24 would open the door for a possible test of February's low crossing at $6.08 1/4. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.39 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the rally off February's low, the December-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.05 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $6.64. Second resistance is the December-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.05 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.24. Second support is February's low crossing at $6.08 1/4.
May Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off Monday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at $6.62 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.28 1/2 would open the door for a larger-degree decline into early-March. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $6.58 3/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $6.62. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.28 1/2. Second support is the January 25th low crossing at $6.15.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.89 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If May resumes the rally above January's high crossing at $14.33, the 75% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $15.39 1/2 on the monthly continuation chart is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $14.45 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $15.39 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.89 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.61.
May soybean meal was higher overnight trading as it extends the trading range of the past six-weeks, which crosses at $413.40. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the January 25th low crossing at $413.40 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for a possible test of the 38% retracement level of August-January rally crossing at $396.90. Closes above the February 9th high crossing at $442.10 would mark an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is the February 9th high crossing at $442.10. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $463.60. First support is February's low crossing at $413.40. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $396.90.
May soybean oil was higher overnight and is poised to resume this winter's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 53.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 47.22 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 50.95. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 53.45. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 49.11. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 47.22.