Highs days 3-7 shows  The most intense Heat backing up. Hot start Northeast but cooling.

How do these temperatures compare to average at this time of year:

High temperature departures:

Low Temperature Departures:

From the GFS ensemble mean products. Temperature anomalies for the start of this week..........record heat Northeast..............cooling Upper MIdwest.

Temperature anomalies at the end of week 2.....most intense heat shifted west.

Tremendous disagreement on where the heat ridge/dome will be in week 2.

Canadian model ensembles:

384h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 17, 2018 00 UTC

GFS ensembles at the end of week 2

Last 6z GFS has massive heat ridge for southern 1/2 of the country......strong cooling far Northeast to upper Midwest.

	gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht
gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick	gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht

CFS week 3 and 4. Cooling it off in the Midwest.......turning dry. 

Precip below

NWS guidance for 8-14 day forecast for this afternoon(sneak peak at what it will show)

Precip below:

Main feature: Front in the Plains to Western Cornbelt to Upper Midwest.

https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather

Satellite picture.

Rains the past 24 hours.  Central Plains to MN/WI/IA.  Heat ridge with warm air alot capped areas east of that. 

You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal". 

most importantly........forecast rains.

Rains the next 7 days . Rains starting to shrink in the the Western belt.

Day 1:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

Day 2:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112

Day 3:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

Days 4-5:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

Days 6-7:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

Total accumulation

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1526397762

Areas with excessive rain potential. Hit the map for full screen. 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml

Current Day 1 Forecast Valid 15Z 06/11/18 - 12Z 06/12/18

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

Current Day 2 Forecast Valid 12Z 06/12/18 - 12Z 06/13/18

Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format 

Current Day 3 Forecast

Severe Storm Risk. Push your cursor on the map for full screen.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook	Forecaster: Hart/Kerr Issued: 18/1240Z Valid: 18/1300Z - 19/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Slight Risk
Current Day 2 Outlook	Forecaster: Bunting Issued: 18/0600Z Valid: 19/1200Z - 20/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
Current Day 3 Outlook	Forecaster: Bunting Issued: 18/0731Z Valid: 20/1200Z - 21/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
Current Day 4-8 Outlook

Look below at how the dryness across the key production areas of IA/IL/IN into OH was wiped out and the dry browns were replaced with wet blues........and the longs have been singing the blues.

http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/cliwatch/drought/drought.jsp

Quick Drought Response Index (QuickDRI) 

Map for: June 3, 2018 (Week 22)

       

Map for: June 24, 2018 (Week 25)

                    

metmike

I dont trade the Ags much anymore but ive gotta say your weather posts are quite something!

Thanks

Thanks John!

Latest extended forecasts.....still hot and pretty dry, except the southeast belt.

Temperature Probability  6-10 day

Precipitation Probability

Temperature Probability 8-14 day

Precipitation Probability