KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, February 26, 2021
8:30 AM ET. January Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous -0.2%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.3%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.5%)
8:30 AM ET. January Advance Economic Indicators Report
9:45 AM ET. February Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (previous 63.8)
10:00 AM ET. February University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 79.0)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 74.0)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 3.0%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.7%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 86.7)
3:00 PM ET. January Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous +0.8%)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed sharply lower on Thursday erasing all this week's gains due to the continued rise in bond yields. Investors are also are factoring in today's unemployment report, which fell by 0.4 percentage point to 6.3 percent in January, while non-farm payroll employment increased by +49,000 today.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 31,210.98 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow extends this month's rally into uncharted territory making upside targets hard to project. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 32,009.64. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 31,210.98. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 30,845.27.
The March NASDAQ 100 closed sharply lower on Thursday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,123.08 confirming that a top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, January's low crossing at 12,491.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 13,478.55 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 13,478.55. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 13,900.50. First support is February's low crossing at 12,727.25. Second support is January's low crossing at 12,491.25.
The March S&P 500 closed sharply lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3799.17 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 3959.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3799.11. Second support is February's low crossing at 3656.50.
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June T-bonds closed down 1-22/32's at 158-10.
June T-bonds closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off last-August's high. A short covering rally tempered early-session losses and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off November's high, the January-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 155-05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 164-06 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 162-00. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 164-06. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 157-20. Second support is the January-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 155-05.
June T-notes closed down 1285-pts. At 148.065.
June T-notes closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off last-August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off the January 27th high, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 131.278 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 135.057 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 134.159. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 135.057. First support is today's low crossing at 131.310. Second support is the the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 131.278.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
April crude oil closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off November's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the October-2018 high crossing at $67.23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $58.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $63.81. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $67.23. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $60.86. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $58.20.
April heating oil posted another new high for the year on Thursday but closed slightly lower due to profit taking. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $200.04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $175.42 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $191.30. Second resistance is the the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $200.04. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $182.67. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $175.42.
April unleaded gas closed slightly lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of is recent gains. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $204.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $181.37 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $198.76. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $204.11. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 189.49. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $181.37.
April Henry natural gas closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.711 signals that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.904 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 3.060. Second resistance is the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3.396. First support is February's low crossing at 2.727. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.711.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The March Dollar closed slightly lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing 89.16 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off January's low, February's high crossing at 91.61 is the next upside target. First resistance is the February 17th high crossing at 91.05. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 91.60. First support is today's low crossing 89.67. Second support is January's low crossing at 89.16.
The March Euro closed higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-February-decline crossing at 122.69 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.04 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-February-decline crossing at 122.69. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-February-decline crossing at 123.18. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.04. Second support is the February 17th low crossing at 120.29. Second support is February's low crossing at 119.60.
The March British Pound closed sharply lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3850 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness. If March extends the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2020-decline crossing at 1.4577 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1.4245. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2020-decline crossing at 1.4577. First support is the 10-day moving averagecrossing at 1.3977. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3850.
The March Swiss Franc closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off Tuesday's high, the November 23rd low crossing at 1.0972 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1159 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1159. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1248. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1.1001. Second support is the November 23rd low crossing at 1.0972.
The March Canadian Dollar posted a downside reversal with today's lower close as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 80.51 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.58 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 80.21. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 80.51. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.58. Second support is January's low crossing at77.63.
The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Thursday as it resumed the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 0.0934 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0951 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0951. Second resistance is the February 10th high crossing at 0.0958. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 0.0942. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 0.0934.
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April gold closed sharply lower on Thursday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April resumes the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1725.30. is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1814.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1814.90. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1951.70. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $1759.00. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1725.30.
May silver closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off last-Friday's low, February's high crossing at 30.350 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.459 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 30.350. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 30.727. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.459. Second support is the January 27th low crossing at 24.715.
May copper posted a downside reversal as it closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off March's low, the August-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 454.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 381.05 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 437.55. Second resistance is the the August-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 454.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 400.97. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 381.05.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May Corn closed down $0.07 1/4-cents at $5.49.
May corn closed lower on Thursday due to today's disappointing export sales report. Today's export sales report showed 17.8 million bushels in old crop sales, a marketing year low plus another 5.7 million bushels in new crop sales for a total of 23.5 million bushels. That was at the low end of trade estimates, which ranged between 21.7 million and 63.0 million bushels. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above February's high crossing at $5.72 are needed to renew the rally off August's low. If May renews the decline off February's high, the 25% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at $5.14 is the next downside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $5.72. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $6.36. First support is the 25% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at $5.14. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.10 1/4.
May wheat closed down $0.09 3/4-cents at $6.75 3/4.
May wheat closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned rally, January's high crossing at $6.93 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.55 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term.First resistance is January's high crossing at $6.93. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.34 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.55 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.45 1/2.
May Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.10 1/2-cents at $6.52 1/2.
May Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this winter's rally, the December-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.05 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.35 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $6.64. Second resistance is the December-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.05 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.35 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.18 1/4.
May Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.07-cents at $6.50 1/2.
May Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If May extends Wednesday's rally, January's high crossing at $6.62 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.38 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at crossing at $6.62. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $6.77. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.38 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.21 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans closed down $0.18 1/4-cents at $14.07 1/2.
May soybeans posted a key reversal down as it closed lower on Thursday following a disappointing export sales report. Today's export sales report show that old crop soybean sales fell over 72% below the prior four-week average, to 6.2 million bushels. New crop sales came in at 2.6 million bushels, for a total of 8.8 million bushels. That was on the lower end of trade estimates, which had a wide range of 7.3 million to 47.8 million bushels. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off January's low, psychological resistance crossing at $14.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.78 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is January's high crossing at $14.33. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $14.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.78 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.40 1/4.
May soybean meal closed down $4.30 to $423.00.
May soybean meal closed lower on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past five-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the February 9th high crossing at $442.10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the February 11th low crossing at $418.30 would renew the decline off January's high while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is January's high crossing at $471.40. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $478.40. First support is the January 25th low crossing at $413.40. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $396.90.
May soybean oil closed down 36 pts. at 49.67.
May soybean oil closed lower on Thursday due to weak export sales for soybeans. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline the monthly continuation chart crossing at 53.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 45.74 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 50.95. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline the monthly continuation chart crossing at 53.45. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 47.16. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 45.74.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed up $0.33 at $89.75.
April hogs closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off November's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April renews the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $92.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $82.45 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $90.68. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $92.25. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $86.08. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $82.45.
April cattle closed down $0.55 at $121.68
April cattle closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If April extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.67 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $123.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If April renews the rally off October's low, the December-2019 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $127.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $126.70. Second resistance is the December-2019 high crossing at $127.90. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.67. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the October-February rally crossing at $119.86.
April Feeder cattle closed up $0.33 at $145.08.
April Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April resumes the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at $147.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $142.04 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at $145.80. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $147.00. First support is February's low crossing at $140.05. Second support is January's low crossing at $135.03.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off November's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at 14.42 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.74 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
May cocoa closed sharply higher for the second day in a row on Thursday as it extended the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, the 75% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 26.63 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.66 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
May sugar closed lower on Thursday as it posted a key reversal down. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.98 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off last-April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 18.42 is the next upside target.
May cotton posted a huge key reversal down with today's limit down close signaling that a short-term top has likely been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 87.17 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off April's low, the June-2018 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 96.50 is the next upside target.
Thanks tallpine