KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Monday, February 22, 2021  

8:30 AM ET. January CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index

                       NAI (previous 0.52)

                       NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.61)

10:00 AM ET. January Leading Indicators

                       Leading Index, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

                       Leading Index (previous 109.5)

                       Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

                       Lagging Index, M/M%  (previous +0.1%)

10:30 AM ET. February Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

                       Business Activity (previous 7.0)

                       Mfg Production Idx (previous 4.6)

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes

The Dow closed modestly lower on Friday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this month's rallyinto uncharted territory making  upside targets hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 31,041.99 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is today's high crossing at 31,647.53. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 31,041.99. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 30,719.53. 

The March NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off Tuesday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,497.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off September's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 13,900.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,497.90. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,066.68.   

The March S&P 500 closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off Tuesday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3856.79 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 3959.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3856.79. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3781.95.  

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March T-bonds closed down 1-10/32's at 163-06.

March T-bonds closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off the January 28^th high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 rally crossing at 157-20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 167-07 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 167-07. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 169-20. First support is today's low crossing at 162-26. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 rally crossing at 157-20. 

March T-notes closed down 120-pts. at 135.115.

March T-notes closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off last-August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading.  Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off the January 27^th high, the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 134.305 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.233 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 136.104. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.233. First support is today's low crossing at 135.105. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the continuation chart crossing at 134.305. 

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April crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $56.18 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off November's low, the October-2018 high crossing at $67.23 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $62.15. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $67.23. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $58.96. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $56.18.  

April heating oil closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off November's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of  the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $200.04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $169.69 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First  resistance is the 62% retracement 1evel of  the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $183.37. Second resistance is the the 75% retracement level of  the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $200.04. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $176.96. Second support is the 20-day moving average  crossing at $169.69.  

April unleaded gas closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $204.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $175.36 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $192.47. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $204.11. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 182.19. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $175.36.    

April Henry natural gas closed higher on Friday leaving yesterday's key reversal down unconfirmed. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off January's low, the October-2020 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3.396 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.808 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 3.060. Second resistance is the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3.396. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.808. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.685.  

CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""

The March Dollar closed lower on Friday erasing all of the gains off Tuesday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off February's high, January's low crossing 89.16 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off January's low, February's high crossing at 91.6 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 91.61. Second resistance is the November 30^th high crossing at 91.96. First support is the January 21^st low crossing 90.03. Second support is January's low crossing at 89.16.  

The March Euro closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off Tuesday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.68 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the November 23rd low crossing at 118.33 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.68. Second resistance is the January 22nd high crossing at 122.03. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 120.29. Second support is February's low crossing at 119.60.  

The March British Pound closed higher on Friday as it extended the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2020-decline crossing at 1.4156 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3772 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.4039. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2020-decline crossing at 1.4156. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3772. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3627. 

The March Swiss Franc closed slightly lower on Friday as it remains belowthe 10-day moving average crossing at 1.1186. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off Tuesday's high, February's low crossing at 1.1064 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1264 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1201. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1264. First support is February's low crossing at 1.1064. Second support is the November 30^th low crossing at 1.1036. 

The March Canadian Dollar closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 80.51 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.47 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is January's high crossing at 79.44. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 80.51. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.47. Second support is January's low crossing at 77.63. 

The March Japanese Yen closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0954 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 0.0934 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0950. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0954. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 0.0942. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 0.0934.  

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April gold closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off January's high.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If April extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1725.30. is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1856.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1827.20. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1956.30. First support is today's low crossing at $1759.00. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1725.30.  

March silver closed higher on Friday as it extended the trading range of the past six-days. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, February's high crossing at 30.350 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.129 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 30.350. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 30.727. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.129. Second support is the January 27^th low crossing at 24.715. 

March copper closed sharply higher on Friday as it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2011-2016-low crossing at 429.67 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 368.59 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 409.10. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2011-2016-low crossing at 429.67. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 379.61. Second support is the 20-day moving average  crossing at 368.59.  

GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

March Corn closed down $0.07 1/2-cents at $5.42 3/4. 

March corn closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews last-week's decline, the 25% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at $5.13 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $5.72 1/4 are needed to renew the rally off August's low. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $5.72 1/4 is the next upside target. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $6.36. First support is the 25% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at $5.13 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.99 1/4.     

March wheat closed down $0.11 3/4-cents at $6.50 3/4.  

March wheat closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. This week's breakout above last-Tuesday's high marked an upside breakout of the January-February ascending triangle and opened the door for a test of January's high crossing at $6.93. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.37 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term.First resistance is January's high crossing at $6.93. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.34 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.37 1/2. Second support is the December 28th crossing at $6.07.        

March Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.05-cents at $6.31 3/4.

March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and  the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes this winter's rally, the December-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.05 3/4 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.06 3/4 is the next downside target.First resistance is January's high crossing at $6.60. Second resistance is the December-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.05 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.06 3/4. Second support is the January 8^th low crossing at $5.87 1/4.       

March Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.03-cents at $6.28 3/4. 

March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If March renews the rally off December's low, January's high crossing at $6.53 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below February's low crossing at $6.09 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.05 3/4. First resistance is January's high crossing at crossing at $6.53 1/2. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $6.58. First support is the January 25th low crossing at $6.05. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.05 3/4.      

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March soybeans closed up $0.02 1/4-cents at $13.77 1/4.

March soybeans closed higher on Friday while extending the trading range of the past four-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at $14.36 1/2 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.21 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $14.36 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly chart crossing at $15.39 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.21 3/4. Second support is January's low crossing at $12.98.

March soybean meal closed down $1.60 to $424.30. 

March soybean meal closed lower on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $418.80 would renew the decline off January's high while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at $443.70 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at $471.40. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $478.40. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $418.80. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $401.40.       

March soybean oil closed up 64 pts. at 47.55. 

March soybean oil closed higher on Friday as it posted a new contract high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline the monthly continuation chart crossing at 47.97 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 45.22 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 47.85. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline the monthly continuation chart crossing at 47.97. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 45.22. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 42.72.      

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 

April hogs closed down $0.43 at $84.50. 

April hogs closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $80.22 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $92.25 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $87.25. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $92.25. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $83.32. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $80.22. 

April cattle closed up $0.75 at $123.68 

April cattle closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If April extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.17 is the next downside target. If April renews the rally off October's low, the December-2019 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $127.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $126.70. Second resistance is the December-2019 high crossing at $127.90. First support is February's low crossing at $121.25. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.17. 

April Feeder cattle closed up $0.93 at $142.68. 

April Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $141.79 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If April resumes the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at $147.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $147.00. Second resistance is the August-2020 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $148.40. First support is February's low crossing at $140.05. Second support is January's low crossing at $135.03.         

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

May coffee closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned rally, January's high crossing at 13.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 12.59 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.        

May cocoa closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.76 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends Wednesday's decline, the November 12^th low crossing at 23.27 is the next downside target.         

May sugar gapped up and closed higher on Friday and posted a new contract high as it extends the rally off last-April's low. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off last-April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 17.23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.57 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.     

March cotton closed higher on Friday as it extends this month's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, the July-2018 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 89.98 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 83.97 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.