KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, February 19, 2021
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 460.9K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 983.2K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 635.4K)
9:45 AM ET. February US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (expected 59.0; previous 59.1)
9:45 AM ET. February US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (expected 58.0; previous 57.5)
10:00 AM ET. January Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (expected 6.66M; previous 6.76M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (expected -1.5%; previous +0.7%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (expected 1.9)
Median Price (USD) (expected 309800)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +12.9%)
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Advance Quarterly Services
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales
Monday, February 22, 2021
8:30 AM ET. January CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous 0.52)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.61)
10:00 AM ET. January Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Leading Index (previous 109.5)
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
10:30 AM ET. February Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous 7.0)
Mfg Production Idx (previous 4.6)
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The Dow closed lower on Thursday due to a rise in jobless claims and bond yields. However, a short covering rebound in the afternoon session tempered some of today's early losses. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this month's rallyinto uncharted territory making upside targets hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 31,027.71 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 31,643.70. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 31,027.71. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 30,691.41.
The March NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off Tuesday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,488.71 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 13,900.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,488.71. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,046.90.
The March S&P 500 closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off Tuesday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3853.99 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 3959.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3853.99. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3777.55.
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March T-bonds closed unchanged at 164-13.
March T-bonds closed unchanged on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off the January 28th high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 rally crossing at 157-20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 167-17 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 167-17. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 169-26. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 163-17. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 rally crossing at 157-20.
March T-notes closed up 30-pts. at 135.270.
March T-notes closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off last-August's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off the January 27th high, the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 134.305 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.257 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 136.149. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.056. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 135.150. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the continuation chart crossing at 134.305.
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April crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday after testing the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $62.15.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the October-2018 high crossing at $67.23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $55.88 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $62.15. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $67.23. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $58.66. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $55.88.
April heating oil closed lower on Thursday after spiking above the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $183.37 in early-session trading. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $200.04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $168.67 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement 1evel of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $183.37. Second resistance is the the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $200.04. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $175.85. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $168.67.
April unleaded gas closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $204.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $174.24 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $192.47. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $204.11. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 180.85. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $174.24.
April Henry natural gas posted a key reversal down with today's lower close signaling that suggest that today's high marked a double top with November's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off January's low, the October-2020 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3.396 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.785 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3.060. Second resistance is the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3.396. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.785. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.673.
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The March Dollar closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the gains off Tuesday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, the November 30th high crossing at 91.96 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off February's high, January's low crossing 89.16 is the next downside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 91.61. Second resistance is the November 30th high crossing at 91.96. First support is the January 21st low crossing 90.03. Second support is January's low crossing at 89.16.
The March Euro closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off Tuesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, the November 23rd low crossing at 118.33 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.68 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.68. Second resistance is the January 22nd high crossing at 122.03. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 120.29. Second support is February's low crossing at 119.60.
The March British Pound closed sharply higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2020-decline crossing at 1.4156 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3757 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.3987. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2020-decline crossing at 1.4156. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3757. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3615.
The March Swiss Franc closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's decline but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.1178. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off Tuesday's high, February's low crossing at 1.1064 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1267 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1209. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1267. First support is February's low crossing at 1.1064. Second support is the November 30th low crossing at 1.1036.
The March Canadian Dollar closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.45 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at 79.44 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 79.31. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 79.44. First support is January's low crossing at 77.63. Second support is the December 28st low crossing at 77.63.
The March Japanese Yen closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidated the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 0.0934 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0955 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0950. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0955. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 0.0942. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 0.0934.
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April gold closed slightly higher on Thursday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If April extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1725.30. is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1858.10 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the January 29th high crossing at $1878.90. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $1966.80. First support is today's low crossing at $1773.90. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1725.30.
March silver closed lower on Thursday as it extended the trading range of the past six-days. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, February's high crossing at 30.350 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off February's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.078 is the next downside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 30.350. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 30.727. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.737. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.078.
March copper closed sharply higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 398.95 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 361.52 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 393.10. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 398.95. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 374.59. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 366.55.
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March Corn closed down $0.02 1/4-cents at $5.50 1/4.
March corn closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. This week's closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.48 have tempered the near-term bearish outlook. If March renews last-week's decline, the 25% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at $5.13 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $5.72 1/4 are needed to renew the rally off August's low. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $5.72 1/4 is the next upside target. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $6.36. First support is the 25% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at $5.13 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.96 3/4.
March wheat closed up $0.18 1/2-cents at $6.62 1/2.
March wheat closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off last-week's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. This week's breakout above last-Tuesday's high marked an upside breakout of the January-February ascending triangle and opened the door for a test of January's high crossing at $6.93. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.36 would open the door for additional weakness near-term.First resistance is January's high crossing at $6.93. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.34 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.36. Second support is the December 28th crossing at $6.07.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.12 1/4-cents at $6.36 3/4.
March Kansas City wheat posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes this winter's rally, the December-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.05 3/4 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.05 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $6.60. Second resistance is the December-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.05 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.05 1/4. Second support is the January 8th low crossing at $5.87 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.08 3/4-cents at $6.31 3/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If March renews the rally off December's low, January's high crossing at $6.53 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below February's low crossing at $6.09 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.04. First resistance is January's high crossing at crossing at $6.53 1/2. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $6.58. First support is the January 25th low crossing at $6.05. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.04.
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March soybeans closed down $0.08 3/4-cents at $13.75.
March soybeans closed lower on Thursday while extending the trading range of the past four-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are is possible near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at $14.36 1/2 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.17 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $14.36 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly chart crossing at $15.39 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.17 1/4. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the April-January rally crossing at $12.83 1/2.
March soybean meal closed up $5.80 to $425.90.
March soybean meal closed lower on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at $443.70 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $424.00 would renew the decline off January's high while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is January's high crossing at $471.40. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $478.40. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $424.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $401.40.
March soybean oil closed up 14 pts. at 46.91.
March soybean oil closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline the monthly continuation chart crossing at 47.97 is the next upside target. If March fills Tuesday's gap crossing at 46.24 or gaps down and leaves Tuesday's gap unfilled, it would mark an island top that could lead to a sharp technical sell off due to profit taking. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 45.01 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 46.64. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline the monthly continuation chart crossing at 47.97. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 45.01. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 42.52.
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April hogs closed up $0.03 at $84.93.
April hogs closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $92.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $79.68 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $87.25. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $92.25. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $82.78. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $79.68.
April cattle closed down $1.23 at $122.93
April cattle closed lower on Thursday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at $123.08 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If April extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.00 is the next downside target. If April renews the rally off October's low, the December-2019 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $127.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $126.70. Second resistance is the December-2019 high crossing at $127.90. First support is February's low crossing at $121.25. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.00.
April Feeder cattle closed down $1.00 at $140.75.
April Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $141.72 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If April resumes the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at $147.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $147.00. Second resistance is the August-2020 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $148.40. First support is February's low crossing at $140.05. Second support is January's low crossing at $135.03.
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May coffee closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned rally, January's high crossing at 13.38 is the next upside target. If May renews the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 12.09 is the next downside target.
May cocoa posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Wednesday's breakout and close below the December 22nd low crossing at 24.09 mark a downside breakout of the December-February-trading range and the resumption of the decline off November's high. If May extends Wednesday's decline, the November 12th low crossing at 23.27 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.79 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
May sugar closed sharply higher on Thursday and posted a new contract high as it extends the rally off last-April's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off last-April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 17.23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.49 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
March cotton closed higher on Thursday as it extends this month's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, the July-2018 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 89.98 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 83.65 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
thank you tallpine!