KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, February 18, 2021
8:30 AM ET. February Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (expected 19.2; previous 26.5)
Prices Paid (previous 45.4)
Employment (previous 22.5)
New Orders (previous 30.0)
Prices Received (previous 36.6)
Delivery Times (previous 30.0)
Inventories (previous 12.6)
Shipments (previous 22.7)
8:30 AM ET. January New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (expected 1.66M; previous 1.669M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (expected -0.5%; previous +5.8%)
Building Permits (expected 1.67M; previous 1.709M)
Building Permits, M/M% (expected -2.3%; previous +4.5%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 770K; previous 793K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -19K)
Continuing Claims (previous 4545000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -145K)
8:30 AM ET. January Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (expected +1.0%; previous +0.9%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.4%)
Petroleum Prices (previous +9.1%)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2518B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -171B)
11:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 469.014M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -6.645M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 256.412M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +4.259M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 161.106M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.732M)
Refinery Usage (previous 83.0%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.183M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +1.655M)
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, February 19, 2021
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 460.9K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 983.2K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 635.4K)
9:45 AM ET. February US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (expected 59.0; previous 59.1)
9:45 AM ET. February US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (expected 58.0; previous 57.5)
10:00 AM ET. January Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (expected 6.66M; previous 6.76M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (expected -1.5%; previous +0.7%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (expected 1.9)
Median Price (USD) (expected 309800)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +12.9%)
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Advance Quarterly Services
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales
Monday, February 22, 2021
8:30 AM ET. January CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous 0.52)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.61)
10:00 AM ET. January Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Leading Index (previous 109.5)
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
10:30 AM ET. February Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous 7.0)
Mfg Production Idx (previous 4.6)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight due to a jump in interest rates.The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,487.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this winter's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 13,900.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,487.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,048.25.
The March S&P 500 was steady to lower overnight as it consolidates some of this winter's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3853.94 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 3959.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3853.94. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3777.54.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were higher in late-overnight trading as they consolidate some of this month's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off August's high, a test of the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 157-20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 167-17 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 167-17. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 169-26. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 163-17. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 157-20.
March T-notes were higher due to short covering overnight as they consolidate some of this month's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off the January 27th high, the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 134.305 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.256 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.256. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 137.074. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 135.150. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 134.305.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
April crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it tested the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $62.48.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the October-2018 high crossing at $67.23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $55.92 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $62.48. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $67.23. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $58.74. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $55.92.
April heating oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signals that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $200.04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $168.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $185.04. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $200.04. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $176.01. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $168.75.
April unleaded gas was slightly higher overnight as it extended Wednesday's rally above the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $188.13. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $204.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $174.31 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $192.47. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $204.11. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $180.99. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $174.31.
April Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off December's low, the October-2020 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3.396 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.790 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3.060. Second resistance is the October-2020 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3.396. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.906. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.790.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was lower in overnight trading as it consolidates some of the rally off Tuesday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, February's high crossing at $91.61 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off last-Friday's high, the January 21st low crossing at $90.03 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $91.05. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $91.61. First support is the January 21st low crossing at $90.03. Second support is January's low crossing at $89.16.
The March Euro was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Tuesday's high.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, February's low crossing at $119.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $121.68 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $121.68. Second resistance is the January 22 high crossing at $122.03. First support is February's low crossing at $119.60. Second support is the November 23rd low crossing at $118.33.
The March British Pound was higher overnight as it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2017-2020-decline crossing at 1.4156 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3756 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.3953. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2017-2020-decline crossing at 1.4156. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3756. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3614.
The March Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Tuesday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off Tuesday's high, February's low crossing at 1.1064 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1267 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the January 22nd high crossing at 1.1331. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.1441. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.1122. Second support is February's low crossing at 1.1064.
The March Canadian Dollar was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $78.45 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at $79.44 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $79.35. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $80.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $78.45. Second support is January's low crossing at $77.63.
The March Japanese Yen was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, last-August's low crossing at 0.0938 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0955 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0955. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0961. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 0.0942. Second support is last-August's low crossing at 0.0938.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1725.30. is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1831.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1831.90. Second resistance is 50-day moving average crossing at $1858.20. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $1767.90. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1725.30.
March silver was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $26.081 would confirm that a top has been posted. If March extends the rally off February's low, February's high crossing at $30.350 is the next upside target. First resistance is the January 5th high crossing at $28.105. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $30.350. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $26.746. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $26.081.
March copper was sharply higher overnight it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2016-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3.9710 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.6155 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3.9310. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2016-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3.9710. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.7475. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.6663.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was steady to lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off February's high, the 25% retracement level of the August-February-rally crossing at $5.13 1/2 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.36 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $5.74 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.36. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $5.24 3/4. Second support is the the 25% retracement level of the August-February-rally crossing at $5.13 1/2.
March wheat was slightly higher overnight. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at $6.61 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.35 1/2 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $6.61 1/4. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $6.71. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.35 1/2. Second support is the January 25th low crossing at $6.24 1/4.
March Kansas City wheat was higher overnight. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at $6.44 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off last-Tuesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.05 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $6.60. Second resistance is the December-2014 high crossing at $7.05 3/4. First support is February's low crossing at $6.04 1/2. Second support is the January 8th low crossing at $5.87 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the symmetrical triangle, which has formed over the past two months. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at $6.38 would signal an upside breakout of the symmetrical triangle thereby opening the door for a possible test of January's high crossing at $6.53 1/2. If March resumes the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.02 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $6.38. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $6.53 1/2. First support is February's low crossing at crossing at $6.05. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.05.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans were steady to lower overnight as they extend the trading range of the past four-weeks.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at $14.36 1/2 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.17 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $14.09 1/2. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $14.36 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.17 1/2. Second support is the January 25th low crossing at $12.98.
March soybean meal was steady to lower overnight trading as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at $443.70 would mark an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $424.10 would open the door for a possible test of the 38% retracement level of August-January rally crossing at $4.01.60. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $443.70. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $471.40. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $424.10. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $401.40.
March soybean oil was lower due to profit taking overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 44.99 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 47.97 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 47.64. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 47.97. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 44.99. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 42.52.
thanks tallpine!