KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, February 10, 2021
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 981.1)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +8.1%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 334.6)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +0.1%)
Refinance Idx (previous 4746.2)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +11.4%)
8:30 AM ET. January CPI
CPI, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.4%)
Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0.1%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous +4.0%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
CPI, Y/Y% (expected +1.5%; previous +1.4%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +1.5%; previous +1.6%)
8:30 AM ET. January Real Earnings
10:00 AM ET. January Online Help Wanted Index
10:00 AM ET. December Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 475.659M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.994M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 252.153M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +4.467M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 162.838M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.009M)
Refinery Usage (previous 82.3%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 18.528M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -1.153M)
2:00 PM ET. January Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt
Thursday, February 11, 2021
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 755K; previous 779K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -33K)
Continuing Claims (previous 4592000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -193K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 7520.3K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1457.4K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 736.7K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2689B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -192B)
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, February 12, 2021
10:00 AM ET. February University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 80.9; previous 79.2)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 73.8)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 87.7)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off February's low. Investors remain optimistic while waiting for U.S. consumer prices data for January. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,309.96 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 13,769.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,309.96. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,919.33.
The March S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends this winter's rally into uncharted territory. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3823.86 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3924.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3823.86. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3751.11.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were lower overnight following a bounce off Monday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 168-17 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. If March resumes the decline off August's high, a test of the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 164-04 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 168-17. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 170-23. First support is Monday's low crossing at 166-03. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 164-04.
March T-notes were steady to lower overnight following a two-day bounce off Monday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off the January 27th high, January's low crossing at 136.010 is the next likely downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 137.119 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 137.119. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 138.055. First support is Monday's low crossing at 136.145. Second support is January's low crossing at 133.010.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
April crude oil was higher overnight as it extends this week's breakout above the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $57.48. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $62.48 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $54.17 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $58.63. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $62.48. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $55.53. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $54.17.
April heating oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signals that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $183.37 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $163.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $175.93. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $183.37. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $168.20. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $163.98.
April unleaded gas was higher in late-overnight trading as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the January-2020 high crossing at $180.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $169.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the January-2020 high crossing at $180.43. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $188.13. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $173.34. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $169.25.
April Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Friday's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the February 2nd gap crossing at 2.716 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If April renews the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 3.052 is the next upside target. First resistance resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 2.980. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 3.052. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.788. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.704.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was lower in overnight trading for the fourth day in a row as it extends the decline off last-Friday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $90.44 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off January's low, the November 30th reaction high crossing at $91.96 is the next upside target. First resistance is the November 30th high crossing at $91.96. Second resistance is the November 23rd high crossing at $92.73. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $90.44. Second support is the January 21st low crossing at $90.03.
The March Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $121.68 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off January's high, the November 23rd low crossing at $118.33 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $121.68. Second resistance is the January 22 high crossing at $122.03. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $119.60. Second support is the November 23rd low crossing at $118.33.
The March British Pound was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-March's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the September-2018 high crossing at 1.3867 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3568 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the September-2018 high crossing at 1.3867. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2017-2020-decline crossing at 1.4156. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3696. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3568.
The March Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it extends the short covering rally off last-Friday's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1265 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, this winter's head-and-shoulders top projects a potential decline to 1.1013. First resistance is the January 22nd high crossing at 1.1331. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.1441. First support is the November 30th low crossing at 1.1036. Second support is the downside target of this winter's head-and-shoulders top crossing at 1.1013.
The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at $79.44 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off January's high, the December 21st low crossing at $77.21 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $79.35. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $80.50. First support is January's low crossing at $77.63. Second support is the December 21st low crossing at $77.21.
The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight following a three-day short covering rally off last-Friday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0959 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, October's low crossing at 0.0945 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0959. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0962. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 0.0946. Second support is last-October's low crossing at 0.0945.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off the January 29th. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the January 29th high crossing at $1878.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April renews the decline off January's high, November's low crossing at $1771.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the January 29th high crossing at $1878.90. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $1966.80. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $1784.60. Second support is November's low crossing at $1771.30.
March silver was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the January 5th high crossing at $28.105 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $25.742 would confirm that a top has been posted. First resistance is the January 5th high crossing at $28.105. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $30.350. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $26.307. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $25.742.
March copper was sharply higher overnight it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the February-2013 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3.7925 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.5813 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3.7810. Second resistance is the February-2013 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3.7925. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.6174. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.5813.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn lower overnight due to follow-through selling after posting a key reversal down on Tuesday as traders were disappointed over the USDA's meager cut in this year's carryout and their limited increase in export demand. The low-range close sets the stage for a lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.36 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. If March extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.36 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $5.74 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.36. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.36 1/2. Second support is the January 25th low crossing at $4.92 1/2.
March wheat was lower overnight as it extends Tuesday's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off last-Monday's low, January's high crossing at $6.93 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.29 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at $6.93. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.34 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.29 1/2. Second support is the December 28th low crossing at $6.07.
March Kansas City wheat was lower overnight as it extends Tuesday's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at $6.60 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at $6.04 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at $6.60. Second resistance is the December-2014 high crossing at $7.05 3/4. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $6.04 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.97 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends the January-February trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, the November-2017 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.58 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at $6.05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at $6.53 1/2. Second resistance is the November-2017 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.58. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at crossing at $6.05. Second support is January's low crossing at $5.93 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans were lower overnight despite shrinking domestic stocks along with harvest delays in Brazil.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at $14.36 1/2 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 25% retracement level of the April-January rally crossing at $12.83 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $14.09 1/2. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $14.36 1/2. First support is the January 25th low crossing at $12.98. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the March-January rally crossing at $12.83 1/2.
March soybean meal was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $438.20 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this month's decline the 50-day moving average crossing at $420.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $438.20. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $471.40. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $420.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $401.40.
March soybean oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidated some of its recent gains. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 47.97 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 43.97 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 46.67. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 47.97. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 43.97. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 41.61.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed down $0.28 at $80.38.
April hogs closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned rally, the July-2019 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $81.98 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 81.07. Second resistance is the July-2019 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $81.98. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $78.27. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $76.10.
April cattle closed down $0.13 at $123.83
April cattle closed lower on Tuesday after spiking to to a new high for the year in early-trading. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If April extends the rally off October's low, the December-2019 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $127.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.33 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $125.68. Second resistance is the December-2019 high crossing at $127.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.33. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.12.
April Feeder cattle closed up $1.70 at $143.18.
April Feeder cattle closed higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April resumes the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at $135.03 is the next downside target. If April renews the rally off January's low, the August-2020 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $148.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $147.00. Second resistance is the August-2020 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $148.40. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $140.05. Second support is January's low crossing at $135.03.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at 13.57 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 12.02 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March cocoa closed higher on Tuesday as it extended the trading range of the December-February trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the January 4th high crossing at 26.61 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, the November 16th gap crossing at 23.95.
March sugar closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 17.23 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.36 is the next downside target.
March cotton closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it extended this year's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, the July-2018 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 89.98 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 79.75 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
thanks tallpine!