Natural Gas Friday-Sunday
10 responses | 0 likes
Started by metmike - June 29, 2018, 10:07 a.m.

August Natural Gas Called Lower as Production Overshadowing Cooling Demand

     metmike..............the reason to be lower is actually cooler extended models

Comments
By metmike - June 29, 2018, 10:09 a.m.
Like Reply

http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report-+66 bcf

 for week ending June 22, 2018   |  Released: June 28, 2018 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: July 6, 2018 


Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary textCSVJSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(06/22/17)
5-year average
(2013-17) 
Region06/22/1806/15/18net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East430  406  24  24   533  -19.3  543  -20.8  
Midwest425  401  24  24   673  -36.8  586  -27.5  
Mountain133  127  6  6   184  -27.7  159  -16.4  
Pacific251  246  5  5   280  -10.4  299  -16.1  
South Central835  828 R 7  7   1,140  -26.8  988  -15.5  
   Salt252  258  -6  -6   341  -26.1  289  -12.8  
   Nonsalt583  570 R 13  13   798  -26.9  699  -16.6  
Total2,074  2,008 R 66  66   2,809  -26.2  2,575  -19.5  
R=Revised.


****The reported revision caused the stocks for June 15, 2018, to change from 2,004 Bcf to 2,008 Bcf.  As a result, the implied net change between the weeks ending June 08 and June 15 changed from 91 Bcf to 95 Bcf.

By metmike - June 29, 2018, 10:10 a.m.
Like Reply

The period below and temperatures was used for the  weekly EIA number released today at 9:30am CDT:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20180622.7day.mean.F.gif

                                    


            

                

By WxFollower - June 29, 2018, 1:37 p.m.
Like Reply

“  metmike..............the reason to be lower is actually cooler extended models

 I agree with Mike. The GFS and Euro 0Z ensemble means were cooler for the 2 week period overall vs yesterday morning. The GFS ensemble mean was actually warmer in late week 2, but the cooler changes in week 1 through early week 2 were larger and, therefore, outweighed the warmer late week 2 in the 0Z GFS ensemble. 

By silverspiker - June 29, 2018, 2:21 p.m.
Like Reply

[​IMG]


Thank You men for your weather workings... I never have put this much thought into Natural

Gas trading and weather as I have now... an interesting new train of thought !!!

By metmike - June 29, 2018, 7:54 p.m.
Like Reply

Surging Production Trips Up Natural Gas Futures Despite Heat

     5:27 PM    

Natural gas futures lost ground during an uneventful session Friday as strong production limited the impact of sizzling temperatures forecast for key demand markets into the first week of July. 

Those sizzling temps were dialed in before today. Extended maps turned cooler yesterday and today..........that's why we were lower. 

By metmike - June 29, 2018, 7:56 p.m.
Like Reply

12z ensembles........heat ridge backed up west. Trought in the East.

Forecast Hour:  360
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gefs-mean-sprd/12/gefs-mean-sprd_namer_360_500_vort_ht.gif

   

gefs-mean-sprd_namer_360_500_vort_ht.gif

By metmike - June 29, 2018, 7:59 p.m.
Like Reply

            12z Canadian model.............trough and cooler temps in the northeast quadrant.........where alot of people live and use alot of electricity for residential air conditioning..........that's generated by burning natural gas.

384h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 15, 2018 12 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)

By metmike - June 29, 2018, 8:02 p.m.
Like Reply

European model a bit more bullish with location of the dome (for grains) but has cooling in the Northeast too.



Loading Maps...

By metmike - June 30, 2018, 11:47 a.m.
Like Reply

Overnight European MUCH different with alot of cooling:

Loading Maps...

By metmike - June 30, 2018, 12:11 p.m.
Like Reply

Oil and gas rig count.


http://www.wtrg.com/rotaryrigs.html