August Natural Gas Called Lower as Production Overshadowing Cooling Demand
metmike..............the reason to be lower is actually cooler extended models
for week ending June 22, 2018 | Released: June 28, 2018 at 10:30 a.m. | Next Release: July 6, 2018
Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary textCSVJSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (06/22/17) | 5-year average (2013-17) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Region | 06/22/18 | 06/15/18 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
East | 430 | 406 | 24 | 24 | 533 | -19.3 | 543 | -20.8 | |||||||||||||||||
Midwest | 425 | 401 | 24 | 24 | 673 | -36.8 | 586 | -27.5 | |||||||||||||||||
Mountain | 133 | 127 | 6 | 6 | 184 | -27.7 | 159 | -16.4 | |||||||||||||||||
Pacific | 251 | 246 | 5 | 5 | 280 | -10.4 | 299 | -16.1 | |||||||||||||||||
South Central | 835 | 828 | R | 7 | 7 | 1,140 | -26.8 | 988 | -15.5 | ||||||||||||||||
Salt | 252 | 258 | -6 | -6 | 341 | -26.1 | 289 | -12.8 | |||||||||||||||||
Nonsalt | 583 | 570 | R | 13 | 13 | 798 | -26.9 | 699 | -16.6 | ||||||||||||||||
Total | 2,074 | 2,008 | R | 66 | 66 | 2,809 | -26.2 | 2,575 | -19.5 | ||||||||||||||||
R=Revised. |
****The reported revision caused the stocks for June 15, 2018, to change from 2,004 Bcf to 2,008 Bcf. As a result, the implied net change between the weeks ending June 08 and June 15 changed from 91 Bcf to 95 Bcf.
The period below and temperatures was used for the weekly EIA number released today at 9:30am CDT:
“ metmike..............the reason to be lower is actually cooler extended models
I agree with Mike. The GFS and Euro 0Z ensemble means were cooler for the 2 week period overall vs yesterday morning. The GFS ensemble mean was actually warmer in late week 2, but the cooler changes in week 1 through early week 2 were larger and, therefore, outweighed the warmer late week 2 in the 0Z GFS ensemble.
Thank You men for your weather workings... I never have put this much thought into Natural
Gas trading and weather as I have now... an interesting new train of thought !!!
Surging Production Trips Up Natural Gas Futures Despite Heat
5:27 PM
Natural gas futures lost ground during an uneventful session Friday as strong production limited the impact of sizzling temperatures forecast for key demand markets into the first week of July.
Those sizzling temps were dialed in before today. Extended maps turned cooler yesterday and today..........that's why we were lower.
12z ensembles........heat ridge backed up west. Trought in the East.
Forecast Hour: 360
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gefs-mean-sprd/12/gefs-mean-sprd_namer_360_500_vort_ht.gif
12z Canadian model.............trough and cooler temps in the northeast quadrant.........where alot of people live and use alot of electricity for residential air conditioning..........that's generated by burning natural gas.
384h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 15, 2018 12 UTC
Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)
European model a bit more bullish with location of the dome (for grains) but has cooling in the Northeast too.
Overnight European MUCH different with alot of cooling: