KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Monday, January 25, 2021  

8:30 AM ET. December CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index

                       NAI (previous 0.27)

                       NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.56)

10:30 AM ET. January Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

                       Business Activity (previous 9.7)

                       Mfg Production Idx (previous 25.5)

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes

The Dow closed lower on Friday due to profit taking as investors keep an eye on COVID restrictions in Europe while a new round of stimulus runs into opposition in the Senate. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this month's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 30,612.67 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 31,272.22. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 30,612.67. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 30,210.03. 

The March NASDAQ 100 posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,543.03 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 13,392.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,543.03. Second support is the December 12^th low crossing at 12,217.00.   

The March S&P 500 closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3685.31 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 3846.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3766.34. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3685.31.  

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March T-bonds closed up 18/32's at 169-00.

March T-bonds posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 170-12 would confirm that a low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 rally crossing at 164-04 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 170-12. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 172-05. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 167-11. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 rally crossing at 164-04. 

March T-notes closed up 55 pts. at 137.020.

March T-notes closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off Tuesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 137.083 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes this month's decline, monthly support on the continuation chart crossing at 134.298 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 137.083. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 137.187. First support is January's low crossing at 136.010. Second support is monthly support on the continuation chart crossing at 134.298.  

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

March crude oil closed lower on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $50.84 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $57.64 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $53.94. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $57.64. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $50.84. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $47.46.  

March heating oil close lower on Friday while extending the trading range of the past two-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $154.58 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's  low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $168.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $162.46. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of  the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $168.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at  $154.58. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $144.67. 

March unleaded gas closed slightly lower on Friday while extending the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $170.66 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $147.62 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $157.40. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $170.66. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 147.62. Second support is the 50-day moving average  crossing at $135.44.    

March Henry natural gas closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at 2.268 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.656 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, the November 30^th high crossing at 2.910 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 2.835. Second resistance is the November 30^th high crossing at 2.910. First support is today's low crossing at 2.425. Second support  is December's low crossing at 2.268.  

CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""

The March Dollar posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last-Friday's high, January's low crossing at 89.16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 90.81 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 90.81. Second resistance is the November 30^th high crossing at 91.96. First support is January's low crossing at 89.16. Second support is monthly support crossing at 88.15. 

The March Euro closed slightly higher on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.20 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 120.68 would open the door for a possible test of December's low crossing at 119.63. First resistance is January's high crossing at 123.68. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 125.39. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 120.68. Second support is December's low crossing at 119.63. 

The March British Pound closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off May's low, the February-2019 crossing at 1.3728 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 1.3456 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the December 21^st low crossing at 1.3200. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 1.3750. Second resistance is the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 1.3456. Second support is the December 21^st low crossing at 1.3200.

The March Swiss Franc closed slightly lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.1540 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1218 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 1.1441. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.1540. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1218. Second support is the November 30^th low crossing at 1.1036. 

The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.87 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 80.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 79.44. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 80.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.87. Second support is the November 13^th low crossing at 75.96.

The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0966 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short covering gains. If March resumes this month's decline, December's low crossing at 0.0956 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 0.0975. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0981. First support is January's low crossing at 0.0958. Second support is December's low crossing at 0.0956.  

PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""

April gold closed lower on Friday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1881.90 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes this month's decline, November's low crossing at $1771.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $1966.80. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $1978.20. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $1804.70. Second support is November's low crossing at $1771.30.

March silver closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 24.040 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.101 would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is January's high crossing at 28.105. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 29.380. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 24.040. Second support is the December 9^th low crossing at 23.695. 

March copper closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day low crossing at 348.97 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 379.25 is the next upside target. First resistance is the January 8th high crossing at 373.40. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 379.25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 348.97. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 345.00.  

GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

March Corn closed down $0.23 3/4-cents at $5.00 1/2. 

March corn closed sharply lower due to profit taking on Friday despite strong export sales extending the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.95 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $5.72 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $5.41 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $5.72 1/4 is the next upside target. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.95 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.54 1/2.    

March wheat closed down $0.26 1/4-cents at $6.34 1/2.  

March wheat closed sharply lower for the four-day in a row on Friday and close below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.43 1/2 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.17 3/4 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off December's low, long-term resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.34 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high  crossing at $6.93. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.34 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.09. Second support is the December 28th crossing at $6.07.        

March Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.22 1/2-cents at $6.13 1/4.

March Kansas City wheat closed sharply lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.10 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes this winter's rally, the December-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.05 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $6.60. Second resistance is the December-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.05 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.10 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.79 3/4.      

March Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.22 3/4-cent at $6.12 1/2. 

March Minneapolis wheat closed sharply lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at crossing at $6.10 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, monthly resistance crossing at $6.58 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at crossing at $6.53 1/2. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $6.58. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing  at crossing at $6.10 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.81 1/2.      

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

March soybeans closed down $0.58 1/2-cents at $13.11 3/4.

March soybeans closed sharply lower due to profit taking on Friday. Today's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.46 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $12.44 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $13.85 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at $14.36 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly chart crossing at $15.39 1/4. First support is the 25% retracement level of the April-January rally crossing at $12.83 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $12.44 3/4.

March soybean meal closed down $16.60 to $421.60. 

March soybean meal closed sharply lower on Friday as it extended this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at $437.20 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $408.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $448.80 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at $471.40. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $478.40. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $408.90. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $401.40.       

March soybean oil closed down 116 pts. at 42.27. 

March soybean oil closed sharply lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off October's low, the March-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 45.05 is the next upside target. If March extends the decline off January's high the 50-day moving average crossing at 39.68 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 44.69. Second resistance is the March-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 45.05. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 41.01. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 39.68.      

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 

April hogs closed up $2.25 at $76.15. 

April hogs closed sharply higher on Friday as it renewed the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned rally, the November 4^th 2019 high crossing at $77.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.68 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 76.25. Second resistance is the November 4th 2019 high crossing at $77.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $72.68. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $70.79. 

April cattle closed up $2.58 at $122.53 

April cattle closed sharply higher on Friday as it extends the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If April extends this week's rally, the January-2020 high crossing at $124.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $117.62 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $122.60. Second resistance is the January-2020 high crossing at $124.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.81. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $117.62. 

March Feeder cattle closed up $5.00 at $144.15. 

March Feeder cattle closed sharply higher on Friday as it renewed the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading.  Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's rally, the August-2020 high crossing at $145.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $136.91 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $144.15. Second resistance is the August-2020 high crossing at $145.30. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $138.23. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $136.91.         

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

March coffee closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.18 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at 13.57 is the next upside target.     

March cocoa closed lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, the November 16^th gap crossing at 23.95. Closes above the January 4^th high crossing at 26.61 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.                          

March sugar closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off January's high. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.72 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 17.23 is the next upside target. 

March cotton posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday due to profit taking. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.62 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off April's low, monthly resistance crossing at 84.47 is the next upside target.