KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, January 15, 2021
8:30 AM ET. December PPI
PPI, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.1%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0.1%)
Personal Consumption (previous +0.3%)
8:30 AM ET. December Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected -0.1%; previous -1.1%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected -0.4%; previous -0.9%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous -0.8%)
8:30 AM ET. January Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (expected 6.0; previous 4.9)
Employment Idx (previous 14.2)
New Orders Idx (previous 3.4)
Prices Received (previous 10)
9:15 AM ET. December Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.4%)
Capacity Utilization % (expected 73.7%; previous 73.3%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.3)
10:00 AM ET. November Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (expected +0.5%; previous +0.7%)
10:00 AM ET. January University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - preliminary data
Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 79.4; previous 81.4)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 74.7)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 91.8)
Monday, January 18, 2021
N/A U.S: Martin Luther King Day. Financial markets closed
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed lower on Thursday as early gains evaporated to end lower as investors awaited the roll-out of President-elect Joe Biden's plan for another large-scale round of federal spending to tide over an economy suffering from a renewed surge in COVID-19 cases. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this month's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 29,881.82 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 31,223.78. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 29,881.82. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30,540.37.
The March NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 12,491.25 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off September's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 13,065.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 12,491.25. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,408.41.
The March S&P 500 closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Multiple closes below the reaction low crossing at 3636.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 3824.40. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3636.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3650.01.
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March T-bonds closed down 1-03/32's at 168-09.
March T-bonds closed sharply lower on Thursday after a two-day bounce off Tuesday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 rally crossing at 164-04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 171-10 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 169-30. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 171-10. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 167-11. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 rally crossing at 164-04.
March T-notes closed down 65 pts. at 136.180.
March T-notes closed lower on Thursday following a two-day bounce off Tuesday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 137.176 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes this month's decline, monthly support on the continuation chart crossing at 134.298 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 137.029. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 137.156. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 136.010. Second support is monthly support on the continuation chart crossing at 134.298.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
March crude oil closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $57.64 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $49.72 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $53.94. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $57.64. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $51.22. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $49.72.
March heating oil closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $168.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $151.88 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $162.19. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $168.80. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $155.06. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $151.88.
March unleaded gas closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $170.66 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $143.54 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $157.40. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $170.66. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 149.17. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $143.54.
March Henry natural gas closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.609 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the November 30th high crossing at 2.910 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2.835. Second resistance is the November 30th high crossing at 2.910. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.609. Second support is December's low crossing at 2.268.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The March Dollar closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the December 21st high crossing at 90.95 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off September's high, monthly support crossing at 88.15 is the next downside target. First resistance is the December 21st reaction high crossing at 90.95. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 91.09. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 89.16. Second support is monthly support crossing at 88.15.
The March Euro closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the December 21st low crossing at 121.58 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 125.39 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 123.68. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 125.39. First support is the December 21st low crossing at 121.58. Second support is the December 9th low crossing at 120.90.
The March British Pound closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off May's low, the February-2019 crossing at 1.3728 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 1.3456 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3402. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.3716. Second resistance is the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.3456. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3402.
The March Swiss Franc closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the December 28th low crossing at 1.1241 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.1540 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.1441. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.1540. First support is the December 28th low crossing at 1.1241. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1195.
The March Canadian Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it renewed the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 80.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.64 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 79.23. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 80.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.64. Second support is the November 13th low crossing at 75.96.
The March Japanese Yen closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0967 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes this month's decline, December's low crossing at 0.0956 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 0.0975. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0981. First support is Monday's low crossing at 0.0958. Second support is December's low crossing at 0.0956.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
February gold closed lower on Thursday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this month's decline, November's low crossing at $1767.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $1887.50 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at $1962.50. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $1973.30. First support is Monday's low crossing at $1817.10. Second support is November's low crossing at $1767.20.
March silver closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 24.365 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at 29.380 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 28.105. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 29.380. First support is Monday's low crossing at 24.365. Second support is the December 9th low crossing at 23.695.
March copper closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 379.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 345.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 373.40. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 379.25. First support is the reaction low crossing at 345.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 343.90.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March Corn closed up $0.09 3/4-cents at $5.34 1/4.
March corn closed higher on Thursday posting a new high close for the current rally. Early weakness failed to fill Wednesday's gap crossing at $5.17 1/4 before turning higher into the close. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $5.72 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.74 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $5.41 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $5.72 1/4 is the next upside target. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.01 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.74 1/2.
March wheat closed down $0.09 1/2-cents at $6.70.
March wheat closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, long-term resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.34 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.33 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $6.80 3/4. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.34 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.33 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.12 1/2.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.11 1/2-cents at $6.37 1/4.
March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's rally, the December-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.05 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.94 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $6.40 3/4. Second resistance is the December-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.05 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.94. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.72 3/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.11 3/4-cents at $6.40 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If March extends the rally off December's low, monthly resistance crossing at $6.58 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at crossing at $5.93 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at crossing at $6.43 1/2. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $6.58. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at crossing at $6.11 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.93 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans closed down $0.24 1/4-cents at $14.30 1/2.
March soybeans closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off August's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally, the 75% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $15.39 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.09 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $14.36 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly chart crossing at $15.39 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $13.70. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.09 1/2.
March soybean meal closed up $7.90 to $464.90.
March soybean meal closed higher on Thursday erasing most of Wednesday's loss. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $478.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $427.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $471.40. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $478.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $443.40. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $427.60.
March soybean oil closed up 93 pts. at 43.11.
March soybean oil closed higher on Thursday ending a decline off last-Wednesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 41.69 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October's low, the March-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 45.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 44.69. Second resistance is the March-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 45.05. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 41.69. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 38.91.
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February hogs closed down $0.55 at $66.30.
February hogs closed lower on Thursday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at $65.77 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 69.07 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 69.07. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $72.00. First support is the reaction low crossing at $65.77. Second support is December's low crossing at $63.00.
February cattle closed down $0.18 at $112.08
February cattle closed lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If February extends the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at $110.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $114.13 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at $116.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $116.63. First support is January's low crossing at $111.35. Second support is December's low crossing at $110.55. Third support is November's low crossing at $109.00.
March Feeder cattle closed down $0.95 at $133.38.
March Feeder cattle posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday as it extends the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the November 20th low crossing at $132.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $139.16 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $136.38. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $139.16. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $132.67. Second support is the November 20th low crossing at $132.45.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-November decline crossing at 13.17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.99 would open the door for additional weakness near-term.
March cocoa closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, the November 16th gap crossing at 23.95. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at 26.61 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
March sugar closed sharply higher on Thursday as it renewed the rally off last-April's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, weekly resistance crossing at 17.23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.31 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
March cotton closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, monthly resistance crossing at 84.47 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.22 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.