INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - Jan. 12, 2021, 4:36 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Wednesday, January 13, 2021  



7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey



                       Composite Idx (previous 827.2)



                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +1.7%)



                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 313.8)



                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -1.6%)



                       Refinance Idx (previous 3917.6)



                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +3.0%)



8:30 AM ET. December CPI



                       CPI, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.2%)



                       Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)



                       Energy Idx, M/M% (previous +0.4%)



                       Food Idx, M/M% (previous -0.1%)



                       Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.1%)



                       CPI, Y/Y% (expected +1.3%; previous +1.2%)



                       Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +1.7%; previous +1.6%)


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes



The Dow closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this month's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 29,881.82 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 31,193.40. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 29,881.82. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29,758.36.  



The March NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If March extends the rally off September's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 12,491.25 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 13,065.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 12,491.25. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,332.01.   



The March S&P 500 closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Multiple closes below the reaction low crossing at 3636.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 3824.40. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3636.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3619.57.  



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



March T-bonds closed up 6/32's at 168-08.

  

March T-bonds closed lower on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 rally crossing at 164-04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 171-24 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 170-22. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 171-24. First support is today's low crossing at 167-11. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 rally crossing at 164-04. 



March T-notes closed up 5 pts. at 136.140.



March T-notes closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off August's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, monthly support on the continuation chart crossing at 134.298 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 137.237 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 137.107. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 137.198. First support is today's low crossing at 136.010. Second support is monthly support on the continuation chart crossing at 134.298.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



March crude oil closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $57.64 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $49.14 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $53.29. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $57.64. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $50.21. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $49.11.  



March heating oil closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $168.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $150.44 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $160.22. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $168.80. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at  $152.64. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $150.44. 



March unleaded gas closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $170.66 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $141.44 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $155.82. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $170.66. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 146.04. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $141.44.    



March Henry natural gas posted a downside reversal and closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the November 30th high crossing at 2.910 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.606 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.725. Second resistance is the November 30th high crossing at 2.910. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.606. Second support is December's low crossing at 2.268.  



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The March Dollar closed lower on Tuesday following a three-day correction off last-Wednesday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the December 21st high crossing at 90.95 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off September's high, monthly support crossing at 88.15 is the next downside target. First resistance is the December 21st reaction high crossing at 90.95. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 91.23. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 89.16. Second support is monthly support crossing at 88.15. 



The March Euro closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 125.39 is the next upside target. Closes below the December 21st low crossing at 121.58 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 123.68. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 125.39. First support is the December 21st low crossing at 121.58. Second support is the December 9th low crossing at 120.90.  



The March British Pound closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish with today's rally signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off May's low, the February-2019 crossing at 1.3728 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3541 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3373. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 1.3710. Second resistance is the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3728. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3541. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3373. 

 

The March Swiss Franc posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the December 28th low crossing at 1.1241 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.1540 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.1441. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.1540. First support is the December 28th low crossing at 1.1241. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1181.



The March Canadian Dollar posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 80.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 79.19. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 80.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.50. Second support is the November 13th low crossing at 75.96.



The March Japanese Yen closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, December's low crossing at 0.0956 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0967 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 0.0975. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0981. First support is Monday's low crossing at 0.0958. Second support is December's low crossing at 0.0956.  



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



February gold closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this month's decline, November's low crossing at $1767.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at  $1896.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $1962.50. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $1973.30. First support is Monday's low crossing at $1817.10. Second support is November's low crossing at $1767.20.



March silver closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.995 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at 29.380 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 28.105. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 29.380. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.995. Second support is the December 9th low crossing at 23.695. 



March copper closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 345.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 379.25 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 373.40. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 379.25. First support is the reaction low crossing at 345.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 341.62. 



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March Corn closed up $0.25-cents at $5.17 1/4. 



March corn closed limit up on Tuesday following today's bullish WASDE report. The USDA lowered the 2020 U.S. corn yields from 175.8 bushels per acre in November down to 172 bpa. This is well below the average trade guess of 175.3 bpa. This resulted in a cut in November's corn production estimate from 14.507 billion bushels down to 14.182 billion bushels. Corn stocks declined by 150 million bushels to 1.552 billion bushels. That was below the average trade guess of 1.559 billion bushels. The limit-up close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, the May-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $5.22 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.64 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the May-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $5.22 3/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $5.72 1/4 is the next upside target. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.90. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.64.    



March wheat closed up $0.301/4-cents at $6.65.  



March wheat closed sharply higher on Tuesday following today's friendly WASDE grain stocks report. Today's quarterly stocks fell from 2.159 billion bushels on September 1 down to 1.671 billion bushels on December 1. This is below the average trade guess at 1.695 billion bushels. Projected 2020/21 ending wheat stocks fell another 26 million bushels to 836 million bushels, which is 19% lower than the same point a year ago.Winter wheat plantings came in higher than expected at 31.991 million acres. The average trade guess came in at 31.528 million acres. Hard red winter plantings account for  22.3 million acres. Soft red winter wheat were 6.23 million acres and white winter wheat 3.48 million acres. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.77 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.27 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $6.70. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.77. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.27. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.10 1/4.        



March Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.28 1/4-cents at $6.22 1/4.

 

March Kansas City wheat closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's rally, the October-2018 high crossing at $6.38 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.87 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $6.26 1/2. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $6.38 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.87 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.69 3/4.      



March Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.14 3/4-cents at $6.20 3/4. 



March Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If March extends the rally off December's low, monthly resistance crossing at $6.58 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at crossing at $5.86 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at crossing at $6.30. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $6.58. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at crossing at $6.02 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.86.      

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March soybeans closed down $0.45 3/4-cents at $14.18 1/4.



March soybeans closed sharply higher on Tuesday. The USDA’s soybean yield estimate declined from 50.7 bushels per acre in November to 50.2 bpa. The pre-report trade estimates was 50.5 bpa. Production estimates were also lower, from 4.170 billion bushels in November down to 4.135 billion bushels. This was also below trade estimates of 4.158 billion bushels. Beginning stocks were higher however, improved exports led to a decline in soybean supplies, which declined by 14 million bushels.  Ending stocks fell to 140 million bushels, which was in line with the average trade guess of 139 million bushels. U.S. soybean supplies remain at their second tightest level on record as strong global and domestic demand sends global buyers scrambling for our grain. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally, the 75% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $15.39 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.85 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $14.28 1/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly chart crossing at $15.39 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $13.46. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.85 3/4.



March soybean meal closed up $18.60 to $465.40. 



March soybean meal closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $478.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $420.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $468.70. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $478.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $436.40. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $420.10.       



March soybean oil closed unchanged at 42.63. 



March soybean oil closed unchanged on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-April's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 41.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October's low, the March-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 45.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 44.69. Second resistance is the March-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 45.05. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 41.30. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 38.53.      

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



February hogs closed up $0.10 at $68.58. 



February hogs closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $67.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February renews the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $73.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $72.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $73.83. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $67.75. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $66.85.  



February cattle closed down $0.70 at $112.70 



February cattle closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If February extends the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at $110.55 is the next downside target. If February resumes the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at $116.63 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at $116.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $116.63. First support is January's low crossing at $111.35. Second support is December's low crossing at $110.55. Third support is November's low crossing at $109.00.   



March Feeder cattle closed down $3.10 at $133.80. 


March Feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it renewed the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the November 20th low crossing at $132.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $139.83 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at $143.70. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $145.30. First support is today's low crossing at $133.73. Second support is the November 20th low crossing at $132.45.         



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are poised to turn neutral to bullish with additional strength. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.44 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average  crossing at 11.92 would open the door for additional weakness near-term.    



March cocoa closed higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, the November 16th gap crossing at 23.95. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at 26.61 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.                        



March sugar closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 17.23 is the next upside target. 



March cotton closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, monthly resistance crossing at 84.47 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.63 would confirm that a short-term top  has been posted.   

Comments
By metmike - Jan. 13, 2021, 3:40 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine