Grains Wednesday
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Started by metmike - June 27, 2018, 9:49 a.m.

Weather turning bullish by usual Summer standards.........but this is not a usual Summer.

Too much rain recently means hot/dry is not so bullish for the first week.

Also, China situation hangs heavy over the market. 

See the complete weather at the links below:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/6326/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/6319/


The June USDA monthly crop report will be released at 11 am CDT on Friday. Always full of surprises and some early Independence Day Fireworks.

Comments
By Jim_M - June 27, 2018, 9:53 a.m.
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The weather pattern change creates enough uncertainty to put a floor under prices.  It doesn't take long for extreme heat to boil out excess water.  

By metmike - June 27, 2018, 9:53 a.m.
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Thanks Jim!

Models don't agree on week 2.

GFS/Canadian cooler but dry. European model has dome of death:

           European model below...........massive heat ridge:

Loading Maps...


  

GFS ensembles at 2 weeks below.......heat ridge much farther west, cooler in the East with upper level trough. It is pretty dry though. 

Forecast Hour:  360

   

gefs-mean-sprd_namer_360_500_vort_ht.gif

By metmike - June 27, 2018, 9:55 a.m.
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Crop condition/ratings from Monday Afternoon:

Nothing noteworthy.

Corn -1% to 77% gd/ex

beans unch at 73% gd/ex

Spring Wheat 77% gd/ex  -1% from last week.

Oats 72% +2%

Cotton 42% gd/ex  +4%    Cotton 19% P/VP -7% from last week, WOW!

https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog2618.txt

By metmike - June 27, 2018, 9:56 a.m.
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By mcfarm - June 26, 2018, 6:57 a.m.

https://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=790526&mid=6834302#M6834302    despite the record rains in northern Iowa and S Minn and many crops hurting this is an estimate of crop yield to date....pretty fancy numbers



By metmike - June 27, 2018, 10:28 a.m.
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NWS guidance for 8-14 day forecast for this afternoon(sneak peak at what it will show) This is from the GFS ensembles that have the heat farther west vs the European model.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/ens700_maps.d11.klnT.prb.gif

Precip below:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/sfc_count_sup814_prec.gif

By metmike - June 27, 2018, 1:16 p.m.
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12z GFS was not bullish(6z GFS was)

Lastest 12z GFS at 2 weeks, below:            

            

      gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht
      gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht
      gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick
      gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht
      gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht_s.gif
By metmike - June 27, 2018, 2:33 p.m.
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                By MarkB - June 26, 2018, 11 p.m.            

            

Travelling through AL, TN, KY, and southern IN this past weekend, nearly all the corn I saw was already at least 5'-6' tall and healthy looking. Very few bad spots. As long as they get enough rain to kernel out, they will be good.


Marketwise, I'm thinking the lows have pretty much been dialed in with the planting progress. Now we wait to see if any weather anomolies reduce production at harvest.

By metmike - June 27, 2018, 2:34 p.m.
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                By cutworm - June 26, 2018, 11:48 p.m.            

            

My early planted corn is starting to tassel . Very early for 112 day corn in this area.

By Jim_M - June 27, 2018, 2:57 p.m.
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Most of the corn in my area is easily shoulder high.  

By silverspiker - June 27, 2018, 3:14 p.m.
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70 percent of corn in E central and se iowa that I saw last week was 6 feet high ; with only about 10 percent 

spiking(curling) otherwise healthy...

... should be tasseling shortly...

--- Heavy Props To Seed Genetics !

... I ALSO REMEMBER JUNE 30 REPORT LAST YEAR !!!   

... BOY DO I REMEMBER THAT DAY !!!