sorry, but this is both financial (trading) and political.
my general sense is this... when trump was in office, investors around the world were more likely to invest money in the u.s.a., because they liked the idea of low taxes, and less bureaucracy. for the most part, this supported stocks, bonds, and the buck (the buck was mostly flat during the trump years).
this is mostly about money flows based on the perception about business friendly policy.
under biden i think this perception will change a bit. even if he picks someone like yellon for the treasury, who many may view as a moderate.
under biden i think that it is less likely we will see the same money flow internationally. so if may be less likely that people around the world will want to move money into u.s. bonds, u.s. stocks, and the buck.
maybe that is why the buck is continuing that slide against the yen,... and the euro is trying to break up against the buck.
this trend, along with the gradual recovery against covid, means we should see commodities going higher.
but, ... after we get past covid, i see very weak gdp growth under biden.
anyone here want to give a critique here? what did i miss.
I love all your posts bear because in addition to providing useful market information, you manage to do it without sarcasm or patronizing tones. (very rare here at the MF)
I have no argument with your points here except to mention that the dollar is actually down under the Trump administration. Perhaps because he and politicians in both parties blew a hole in the deficit? Also, I expect continued $$ weakness as more spending to avoid any economic pain is likely on the way as well.
i see the dollar decline over the last 9 months as something separate from trump policies. lets call it the covid decline. (in the buck). without covid, i think that decline may not have happened, or would have been less severe.
but, at this point, yes, there will be pressure all around the globe for central banks to print, print, print, and govts to spend to address the pain of covid.
is there NO one who believes that it is my responsibility to "save for a rainy day", anymore? do we all just expect that authorities should give lots of handouts when times are tough?
my apologies again, this will be a little further off topic... but...
in the old days... maybe 100 years ago... we all would say that a city, like santa fe, should build up a rainy day fund (when times are good), to serve as a buffer against the next recession.
it was my responsibility to save for a rainy day. and i should not expect a handout when times get tough. we, as a society, seem to no longer hold to this wisdom.
now when times get tough, we want an authority to step in and rescue us (from our own lack of planning).
so both parties want a stimulus package, but they just argue about the size.
this may not cause the dollar to crash this week. but it will guarantee we get more future inflation.
more govt intrusion long term means more inflation, and more stagnation.
sorry, this is not the kind of thing i would make a short term trade on. but it tells us the long term trend.
Thanks bear and joj!
Dollar, 1 year chart below:
%20Overview%20MarketWatch(2).png)
Dollar, 3 year chart below:
%20Overview%20MarketWatch(1).png)
Dollar, 30+ years below:
%20Overview%20MarketWatch.png)
The us $ is breaking down below the sept 1 low at 91.75 Currently 91.594 Next stop 88 ish