INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Nov. 24, 2020, 7:40 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Tuesday, November 24, 2020 



7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index



8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index



                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -1.0%)



                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +1.4%)



                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +1.7%)



9:00 AM ET. September U.S. Monthly House Price Index



9:00 3rd Quarter U.S. Quarterly House Price Index



9:00 AM ET. September S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices



                       10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +1.1%)



                       10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +4.7%)



                       20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +1.1%)



                       20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +5.2%)



                       National Idx, M/M% (previous +1.1%)



                       National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +5.7%)



10:00 AM ET. November Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey



                       Mfg Idx (previous 29)



                       Shipments Idx (previous 30)



10:00 AM ET. November Consumer Confidence Index



                       Cons Conf Idx (expected 98.3; previous 100.9)



                       Expectation Idx (previous 98.4)



                       Present Situation Idx (previous 104.6)



4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin



                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +4.2M)



                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.3M)



                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -5.0M)


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"



The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Meanwhile, Dow futures extended Monday's rally on vaccine optimism and signs of an orderly U.S. political transition. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,568.56 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If the NASDAQ 100 renews this month's rally, September's high crossing at 12,444.75 is the next upside target. First resistance September's high crossing at 12,444.75. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 12,465.25. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,731.63. Second is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,568.56.  



The December S&P 500 was higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible near-term. Closes below the November 9th gap crossing at 3502.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is November's high crossing at 3658.40. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3479.40. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3424.06. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were lower overnight as it consolidates some of this month's rally. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 172-24 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 174-05 would open the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at 175-27. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 174-05. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 175-27. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 172-24. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 169-17.



December T-notes were  slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this month's rally. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 137.069 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.252 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.252. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 139.085. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 137.069. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-August-rally crossing at 137.160. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



January crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off November's low, August's high crossing at $44.59 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $40.18 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $43.74. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $44.59. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $40.18. Second support is the reaction low crossing at $37.82.    



January heating oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off November's low, August's high crossing at $137.01 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.05 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $134.30. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $137.01. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $127.02. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.38. 



January unleaded gas was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January renews the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $134.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $112.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at $122.72. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $134.28. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $116.56. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $114.14. 



January Henry natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above last-Monday's gap crossing at 3.074 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of the March-October-rally crossing at 2.562 is the next downside target.First resistance resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.901. Second resistance is last-Monday's gap crossing at 3.074. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 2.656. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-October-rally crossing at 2.562.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off November's high, September's low crossing at $91.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving averagecrossing at $93.29 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving averagecrossing at $93.29. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $94.33. First support is Monday's low crossing at $92.00. Second support is September's low crossing at $91.75.



The December Euro was higher overnight as it extends this month's trading range. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $117.89 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at $120.38 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at $119.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $120.38. First support is the reaction low crossing at $117.54. Second support is November's low crossing at $116.13. 



The December British Pound was higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at 1.3488 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3155 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1.3400. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3488. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3155. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3023.



The December Swiss Franc was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets  the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off November's high, November's low crossing at 1.0874 is the next downside target. If December extends the rally off the November 11th low, November's high crossing at 1.1144 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 1.1144. Second resistance is the September-2018 high crossing at 1.1319. First support is November's low crossing at 1.0874. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.0789.



The December Canadian Dollar was higher overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish  signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $75.82 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the October-2018 high crossing at $79.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at $77.36. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $79.05. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $75.82. Second support is October's low crossing at $74.69.  



The December Japanese Yen was steady to higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's sharp decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0954 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 0.0970 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 0.0970. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March rally crossing at 0.0979. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0954. Second support is October's low crossing at 0.0943.  



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off November's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1771.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1897.10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1897.10. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $1966.10. First support is the overnight low crossing at $1803.50. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1771.40.



December silver was lower overnight while extending the September-November trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at $23.600 would open the door for a possible test of October's low crossing at $22.625. If December renews the rally off October's low, the September 15th high crossing at $27.865 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at $26.135. Second resistance is the September 15th high crossing at $27.865. First support is October's low crossing at $22.625. Second support is September's low crossing at $21.810. 



December copper was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. The high-range overnight trade  sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the  RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the June-2018 high crossing at 3.4140 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.1588 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3.3160. Second resistance is the June-2018 high crossing at 3.4140. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.1588. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.0914.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was sharply lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of this month's gains. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are poised to turn neutral to bearish with additional weakness. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.11 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off August's low, the June-2016 high on the monthly chart crossing at $4.43 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $4.29 3/4. Second resistance is the June-2016 high on the monthly chart crossing at $4.43 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.11 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.97 1/2.       



December wheat was lower overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off October's high, the 38% retracement level of the June-October-rally crossing at $5.77 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at $6.26 1/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $6.38 1/4. First support is the 38% retracement level of the June-October-rally crossing at $5.77 1/2. Second support is 50% retracement level of the June-October-rally crossing at $5.58 3/4.



December Kansas City wheat was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off  November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.34 3/4 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off the October 28th low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $6.05 1/2 is the next upside target.First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $5.79 3/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $6.05 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.34 3/4. Second support is the October 14th low crossing at $5.23 1/2.



December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 62% retracement of the August-October rally crossing at $5.37 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.52 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at $5.71 3/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $5.87 3/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at $5.40 1/2. Second support is the 62% retracement of the August-October rally crossing at $5.37 1/4.   



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



January soybeans were lower due to profit taking overnight as they consolidate some of the rally off August's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends this month's rally, monthly resistance marked by the June-2016 high crossing at $12.08 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.25 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $12.00. Second resistance is monthly resistance marked by the June-2016 high crossing at $12.08 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $11.67 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.25.



December soybean meal was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $387.50 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $404.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $401.40. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $404.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $387.50. Second support is the October 12th low crossing at $352.30.   

   

December soybean oil was sharply lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are poised to turn neutral to bearish with additional weakness that would signal that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 36.12 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off October's low, monthly resistance crossing at 41.25 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 39.32. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 41.25. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 37.84. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 36.12.



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By metmike - Nov. 24, 2020, 11:50 a.m.
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