If you look at crude oil it has made an $80 move from negative $38 to the low 40s. And it has gone sideways since then for several months. The next few months could make for a long winter with the virus inhibiting people from traveling. But if/when the vaccine becomes widely available, people who have not vacationed or seen loved ones will travel in droves. I can see 30-50 bucks on the upside. Play it in futures or in energy. stocks.
Of course "all things being equal" is the caveat as well as a successful distribution of the vaccines.
maybe just maybe Biden/Harris outlawing crude and fossil fuels in general might play a slightly bigger role in the future of crude
While I agree with everything you are saying, IF Biden does a lock down for say 3 or 4 weeks, we could see $25 oil again and buying here would crush you if you are leveraged and make a buy and hold feel pain before you were rewarded. Timing is everything. I mean in the next 20 years, Israel could attack Iran also, but buying and holding oil for that would also be crazy.
I don't think Biden has the authority to lock down. I think it is state by state.
I think there will be lock downs in many places and people will travel less for their own personal safety, but I think that is mostly known and in the market. I'll be a buyer in the mid 30's.
I can't believe the perma oil Bull of MF is hesitating to join me in a bullish argument for crude.