INO Morning Market Commentary
1 response | 0 likes
Started by tallpine - Nov. 17, 2020, 8:02 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Tuesday, November 17, 2020 



7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index



8:30 AM ET. October Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services



                       Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +1.9%)



                       Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +0.6%; previous +1.5%)



                       Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +1.5%)



8:30 AM ET. October Import & Export Price Indexes



                       Import Prices (expected +0.0%; previous +0.3%)



                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.7%)



                       Petroleum Prices (previous -4.2%)



8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index



                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -1.2%)



                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +1.1%)



                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +1.1%)



9:15 AM ET. October Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization



                       Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +1.0%; previous -0.6%)



                       Capacity Utilization % (expected 72.2%; previous 71.5%)



                       Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous -0.5)



10:00 AM ET. November NAHB Housing Market Index



                       Housing Mkt Idx (expected 85; previous 85)



10:00 AM ET. September Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales



                       Total Inventories (expected +0.6%; previous +0.3%)



11:00 AM ET. Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Q3 Household Debt and Credit Report



4:00 PM ET. September Treasury International Capital Data



4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin



                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -5.1M)



                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.3M)



                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -5.6M)



Wednesday, November 18, 2020 



7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey



                       Composite Idx (previous 833.9)



                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -0.5%)



                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 293.5)



                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -2.6%)



                       Refinance Idx (previous 3973.1)



                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +0.6%)



8:30 AM ET. October New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits



                       Total Starts (expected 1.45M; previous 1.415M)



                       Housing Starts, M/M% (expected +2.5%; previous +1.9%)



                       Building Permits (expected 1.56M; previous 1.553M



                       Building Permits, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +5.2%)



10:00 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Advance Quarterly Services



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report



                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 488.706M)



                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +4.277M)



                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 225.356M)



                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.309M)



                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 149.289M)



                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -5.355M)



                       Refinery Usage (previous 74.5%)



                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.18M)



                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +1.818M)



2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"



The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight.The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the NASDAQ 100 renews this month's rally, September's high crossing at 12,444.75 is the next upside target. If this resistance level is cleared, monthly resistance crossing at 12,465.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,503.45 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance September's high crossing at 12,444.75. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 12,465.25. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,657.56. Second is the 50-day moving average crossing at 10,503.45.  



The December S&P 500 was lower overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3406.96 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 3658.40. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3452.22. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3406.96. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were higher in late-overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 172-19 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 167-19 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 172-19. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 174-13. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 169-17. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 167-19.



December T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.098 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off November's high, June's low crossing at 137.025 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.098. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.285. First support is the 87% retracement level of the June-August-rally crossing at 137.160. Second support is June's low crossing at 137.025. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



December crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off November's low, August's high crossing at $44.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $39.22 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $43.06. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $44.33. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $39.22. Second support is the reaction low crossing at $37.06.    



December heating oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $116.11 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off November's low, the August 18th high crossing at $132.61 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $129.82. Second resistance is the August 18th high crossing at $132.61. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $116.11. Second support is the November 6th low crossing at $113.59. 



December unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $111.35 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $131.93 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $123.41. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $131.93. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $111.35. Second support is the November 6th low crossing at $107.57.



December Henry natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's huge decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, June's low crossing at 2.637 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's gap  crossing at 2.949 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance resistance is Monday's gap crossing at 2.949. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.081.  First support is Monday's low crossing at 2.675. Second support is June's low crossing at 2.637.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off November's high, September's low crossing at $91.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving averagecrossing at $93.37 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving averagecrossing at $93.37. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $94.33. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $92.12. Second support is September's low crossing at $91.75.



The December Euro was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at 120.38 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at $117.54 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the November's high crossing at $119.42. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $120.38. First support is November's low crossing at $116.13. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at $115.42. 



The December British Pound was steady to higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at 1.3488 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3100 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.3326. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3488. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3100. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2981.



The December Swiss Franc was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned  neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, November's high crossing at 1.1144 is the next upside target. If December renews last-week's decline, November's low crossing at 1.0874 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 1.1144. Second resistance is the September-2018 high crossing at 1.1319. First support is November's low crossing at 1.0874. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.0789. 



The December Canadian Dollar was slightly lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the October-2018 high crossing at $79.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $75.77 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $77.36. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $79.05. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $75.77. Second support is October's low crossing at $74.69.  



The December Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off last-Wednesday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0956 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews last-week's decline, October's low crossing at 0.0943 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-March rally crossing at 0.0969. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March rally crossing at 0.0979. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 0.0947. Second support is October's low crossing at 0.0943.  



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was slightly lower overnight as it extends last-week's trading range. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1907.90 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off last-Monday's high, the July 16th low crossing at $1819.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $1966.10. Second resistance is the September 16th high crossing at $1983.80. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $1848.00. Second support is the July 16th low crossing at $1819.90.



December silver was lower overnight while extending the September-November trading range. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off October's low, the September 15th high crossing at $27.865 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at $23.600 would open the door for a possible test of October's low crossing at $22.625. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $26.135. Second resistance is the September 15th high crossing at $27.865. First support is October's low crossing at $22.625. Second support is September's low crossing at $21.810. 



December copper was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the June-2018 high crossing at 3.4140 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.0698 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3.2625. Second resistance is the June-2018 high crossing at 3.4140. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.0698. Second support is November's low crossing at 3.0280.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally November's low, the June-2016 high on the monthly chart crossing at $4.43 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at $4.01 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $4.28. Second resistance is the June-2016 high on the monthly chart crossing at $4.43 1/2. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $4.01 3/4. Second support is the November's low crossing at $3.93.       



December wheat was higher overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.07 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 38% retracement level of the June-October-rally crossing at $5.77 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at $6.26 1/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $6.38 1/4. First support is the 38% retracement level of the June-October-rally crossing at $5.77 1/2. Second support is  50% retracement level of the June-October-rally crossing at $5.58 3/4.



December Kansas City wheat was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off the October 28th low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $6.05 1/2 is the next upside target. If December extends the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.26 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $5.79 3/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $6.05 1/2. First support is the October 28th low crossing at $5.32. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.26 3/4.



December Minneapolis wheat was steady to lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are  neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above November's high crossing at $5.71 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at $5.40 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at $5.71 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $5.87 3/4. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $5.43 3/4. Second support is October's low crossing at $5.30 1/4.   



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



January soybeans were higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends this month's rally, monthly resistance marked by the June-2016 high  crossing at $12.08 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average  crossing at $10.99 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $11.72. Second resistance is monthly resistance marked by the June-2016 high crossing at $12.08 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $11.32 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.99 1/4.



December soybean meal was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $404.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $384.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $401.10. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $404.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $384.90. Second support is the October 12th low crossing at $352.30.   

   

December soybean oil was steady to higher overnight as it renewed the rally off March's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the November-2016 high on the monthly chart crossing at 38.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 34.99 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 37.50. Second resistance is the November-2016 high on the monthly chart crossing at 38.35. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 36.32. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 34.99.



Comments
By metmike - Nov. 17, 2020, 11:42 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks Tallpine!


Beans still on fire.


NG getting crushed by mild November temps.