Big week of export inspections for U.S. #corn and #soybeans, but slower for #wheat. Some 80% of the beans were to #China, and about 40% of the corn was to China.

I am going to go out on a limb and say that USA grain stocks are less than thought. Both 2019 and 2020 seems to be less. SA seems to have sold as much as they can. Russia needs to recover from drought conditions

And the final biggie. I am positive that china has a food shortage. Evidence is the increased purchases of grain from the USA. China isn't buying grain from the USA unless they need the grain and all other sources have been exhausted. China isn't doing us any favors because they like us

They have to buy our grain to avoid a food shortage

Our local corn grain prices have increased by 50 cents/bu. with increased prices holding all the way out until new crop

And of coarse all eyes are still on SA production with La Nina still hanging around

I agree Wayne.

And SA is all sold out. This was somewhat predictable in a global market where the US is such a major supplier. 

The rest of the world does not have enough extra corn and beans to supply all of China's needs. And even if they did, China's extra demand for their crops, causes world prices to go higher, taking US prices up because other countries want to buy US grains if our prices are lower than global prices.

So it seems very likely that SA is about to become a major buyer of US meal and beans between now and when their new crop is harvested.

Because of the drought in Brazil, the crop is getting planted a few weeks late. The drought is breaking in Brazil with nice rains(no telling what the weather will be like a month from now though) but the late planting means 3+ weeks longer before their new crop is harvested and 3 more weeks of the world and SA having to buy from the US.

I am reminded of an old saying:

 Major bull markets begin with demand and end on shortage (crop failure) 

Wise words cutworm!

Brazil on Saturday suspended the 8% import tariff on #corn/soy from outside the Mercosur trade bloc until early 2021, fueling rumors of U.S. purchases. When was the last time USA shipped at least a full cargo (say ~60kt+) of beans to Brazil?

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the last time USA exported a material amount of #soybeans to #Brazil was in 1997-98 with about 638,000 tonnes. The record was in 1994-95 at 710kt, and both of those volumes were about 3% of the year's total U.S. exports. 

@kannbwx

Today (Oct. 21) is the second trading day in October without a flash sale from the USDA. Oct. 9 was the other. Markets were open on Oct. 12 but USDA was observing a federal holiday, and there was no flash. But I'm not counting that as a miss.

Export sales:

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/highlite.htm

Another big week of export sales for U.S. #corn and #soybeans, but #wheat was on the lighter side.

 #China bought 1.22 mmt beans (incl. 395kt switched from unknown) and 434kt corn. #Japan bought 490kt corn (incl. 163kt switched from unknown). #Mexico bought 377kt corn.

@kannbwx

2hUSDA confirms the following U.S. export sales for delivery in 2020/21: 152,404 tonnes of #soybeans to #Mexico 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown130,000 tonnes of white #wheat to South Korea That's 10.5 mln bu of soybeans and 4.8 mln bu of wheat.

2020/21 U.S. export sales to #China through Oct. 15:

 #Soybeans 24.9 mln tonnes (915 mln bu)+28% on 2014's record for the date55% of total soy sales

 #Corn 10.55 mln tonnes (415 mln bu)More than double 2013's record for date37% of total corn sales\\

2020/21 U.S. export sales to #China through Oct. 15 (cont.):

 #Wheat 1.54 mln tonnes (56.5 mln bu)113% more than same date in 201710% of total wheat sales

 #Sorghum 2.22 mln tonnes (87.3 mln bu)5 yr high

 #Cotton 3.26 mln running bales (709kt)+87% YOY39% of total

2020 U.S. export sales to #China through Oct. 15 (cont.):

 #Pork 685,565 tonnes+72% YOYTop 2020 buyer; 38% of total

 #Beef 42,829 tonnesNearly 6x year ago5% of total sales (7th largest buyer)