CORN CYCLE
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Started by tjc - June 23, 2018, 2:54 p.m.

  Good afternoon, MarketForum

  Perhaps you can grace me with a polite response/discussion of my corn cycle analysis.

  Corn made a daily and either a Half Primary or Primary LOW on Tuesday, June 19, 2018 at 339.

  I would prefer this June date be a HALF primary 18 weeks out from an April 20, 2018 primary  low at 385  as this would project a last week of August PRIMARY LOW, as opposed the June date being a PRIMARY low 27 weeks from the December 12, 2017 low at 335 thereby projecting a last week of October Primary low.  (As a landlord, I want this pain OVER!)

  IN EITHER SCENARIO, I believe corn fully tests its August 2016 low of 301.

  Based upon the weather forecast prior to the Sunday night open, Monday could produce a significant DIP, which if it does NOT take out THE 339 low, may provide a good/great buying opportunity for a 2-3-5 week rally.  Watch the fib 25, 32, 50, 62 % retracements at 357, 362, 375, and 384.

  BE PREPARED to SELL  

  NOTE:  A 50 % retracement to 375 and THEN an equal leg drop of 73 cents (412 HIGH to 339 LOW) results in 302!!

  Farmers clean out the bins!  Specs get ready to sell.

  MetMike will keep us posted of growing conditions/weather--perhaps just enough of a weather scare to get us half way back!

  TRADE WELL!!

Comments
Re: CORN CYCLE
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By mcfarm - June 24, 2018, 7:57 a.m.
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and managed money finally short as of last week {19th].......I also want this pain over

Re: CORN CYCLE
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By tjc - June 26, 2018, 11:21 a.m.
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  As I was 'fortunate' enough to project, corn/beans had a test of low Monday.  MetMike now suggests a potential dramatic change in wet/cool weather trend to a dry/heat dome.  Perhaps a 'nice' fib retracement coming.

  I will repeat--be prepared to sell in a few weeks

By metmike - June 26, 2018, 11:55 a.m.
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Much appreciated tjc.

It's a good buying set up "IF"  the market thinks we will turn hot and dry for 2 weeks.

What the market thinks will happen matters to prices well before it happens.............which is why I didn't say "IF" we turn hot and dry.

"IF" we do turn hot and dry for 2+ weeks, then of course the lows are in but we can still go higher than this for awhile without that happening "IF" the market thinks it will happen for a week.

I should also note that in almost any other Summer, extended maps this hot/dry would have us sharply higher today......but its been too wet in many key locations. The first week of hot/dry would be good for those places..........that's why we need 2 weeks for me to have some confidence.

On the lows in August.......wow! That's pretty low. Seasonally, early August is in fact when we often have our Summer bottom.........after all the risk premium is drained out and crop is considered just about made........but each year is different.

If we have heat in mid July onward, we will NOT be going lower. Heat fill will take potential away, no matter how good the crop looks and how high ratings are. 

Heat fill for corn:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/5754/

By metmike - June 26, 2018, 12:28 p.m.
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                By metmike - June 26, 2018, 12:18 p.m.            

         From Natural Gas Tuesday.

tjc,

I have tremendous respect for your technical analysis and dial it into my thinking when looking at markets and considering personal trades.

We are fortunate to have you sharing it and your trades here. Same thing with the opinions/work of our other regular and some times not so regular contributors.

Thanks Much!

I think that there are loads of people who read stuff here and enjoy it but don't feel their contribution would add anything..........not so.

The market psychology is made up of a composite of many thousands of opinions. Some of them are wrong, some are right.

metmike and tjc are sometimes wrong about where the markets are going, even if 90% of our analysis is right on the money. 

If the China thing matters more than everything else(in grains)......our analysis, absent the China thing doesn't matter. 

If the funds are piling on the shorts, selling 10's of thousands of contracts/day....no matter what and don't care about our great analysis, our analysis will lose money. 

So please provide your opinions, especially if they disagree with ours!

Help keep us tuned into the overall picture. 

By tjc - June 26, 2018, 1:53 p.m.
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  EXACTLY!!

  I prefaced my corn cycle with a request for discussion.  Had hoped to garner many thoughts, whether technical, fundamental or just personal observations.  

  Please comment.  I would prefer NOT to get blindsided because someone failed to share!