KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, October 15, 2020
5:30 AM ET. IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings plenary session
8:30 AM ET. October Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (expected 12.0; previous 17.0)
Employment Idx (previous 2.6)
New Orders Idx (previous 7.1)
Prices Received (previous 6.5)
8:30 AM ET. October Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (Expected 14.0; previous 15.0)
Prices Paid (previous 25.1)
Employment (previous 15.7)
New Orders (previous 25.5)
Prices Received (previous 18.4)
Delivery Times (previous 12.2)
Inventories (previous -10.8)
Shipments (previous 36.6)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 830K; previous 840K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -9K)
Continuing Claims (previous 10976000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -1003K)
8:30 AM ET. September Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (expected +0.1%; previous +0.9%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.7%)
Petroleum Prices (previous +2.9%)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3831B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +75B)
11:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 492.927M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.501M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 226.747M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.435M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 171.796M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.962M)
Refinery Usage (previous 77.1%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 18.345M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.898M)
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, October 16, 2020
8:30 AM ET. September Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +0.7%; previous +0.6%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.7%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.7%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1225.7K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 2590.7K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 568K)
9:15 AM ET. September Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.4%)
Capacity Utilization % (expected 71.8%; previous 71.4%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.3)
10:00 AM ET. August Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (expected +0.4%; previous +0.1%)
10:00 AM ET. October University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 80.4; previous 78.9)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 73.3)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 87.5)
4:00 PM ET. August Treasury International Capital Data
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 were sharply lower overnight pressured by fading hopes for a pre-election U.S. stimulus deal and tightening restrictions due to the coronavirus pandemic. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,409.80 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If the NASDAQ 100 extends the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at 12,444.75 is the next upside target. First resistance Tuesday's high crossing at 12,249.00. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 12,444.75. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,409.80. Second support is September's low crossing at 10,656.50.
The December S&P 500 was lower overnight as it extends the decline off Monday's high.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3370.77 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at 3568.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3532.80. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 3568.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3370.77. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 3228.49.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 176-11 would open the door for a possible test of the September 29th high crossing at 177-12. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 173-10 would open the door for a possible test of June's low crossing at 171-16. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 176-11. Second resistance is the September 29th high crossing at 177-12. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 173.10. Second support is June's low crossing at 171-16.
December T-notes were higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 139.104 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off September's high, August's low crossing at 138.185 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 139.104. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 139.290. First support is the August 28th low crossing at 138.185. Second support is the June 16th low crossing at 138.135.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
November crude oil was lower overnight as it extends the September-October trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $40.99 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below September's low crossing at $36.58 would renew the decline off August's high. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $40.92. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $44.05. First support is September's low crossing at $36.58. Second support is the June 12th low crossing at $35.54.
November heating oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $114.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.40 would open the door for additional short-term gains. First resistance is the the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.40. Second resistance is the August 31st high crossing at 127.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $114.60. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 108.97.
November unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $117.20 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. If November resumes the rally off September's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $128.26 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at $124.62. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $128.26. First support is October's low crossing at $109.58. Second support is September's low crossing at $106.60.
November Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Monday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.655 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 3.002 is the next upside target.First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 2.955. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 3.002. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.655. Second support is October's low crossing at 2.373.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off September's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $93.77 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December extends the decline off September's high, the September 10th low crossing at $92.68 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at $94.72. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at $96.33. First support is the September 10th low crossing at $92.68. Second support is September's low crossing at $91.75.
The December Euro was lower in overnight trading as it extends the decline off last-Friday's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, September's low crossing at $116.31 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $118.20 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the September 10th high crossing at $119.42. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $120.38. First support is September's low crossing at $116.31. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $115.42.
The December British Pound was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2896 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off September's low, the August 6th high crossing at 1.3191 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1.3086. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3483. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.2733. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.2502.
The December Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0916 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off September's low, the September 10th high crossing at 1.1081 is the next upside target. First resistance is the September 10th high crossing at 1.1081. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.1138. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.0789. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.0679.
The December Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.38 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at 76.97 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 76.35. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 76.97. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 74.97. Second support is September's low crossing at 74.53. Third support is the 38% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 73.72.
The December Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, October's high crossing at 0.0954 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 0.0940 is the next downside target. First resistance is October 2nds high crossing at 0.0954. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 0.0963. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 0.0943. Second support is September's low crossing at 0.0940.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off August's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1771.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1939.10 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1939.10. Second resistance is the September 16th high crossing at $1983.80. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $1877.10. Second support is September's low crossing at $1851.00. Third support is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1771.40.
December silver was lower is late-overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $20.953 is the next downside target. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $26.101 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.101. Second resistance is the September 15th high crossing at $27.865. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $22.965. Second support is September's low crossing at $21.810. Third support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at $20.953.
December copper was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 2.1210 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.9934 would signal that a short-term top might be in or is near. First resistance is September's high crossing at 3.1210. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.2302. First support is October's low crossing at 2.8345. Second support is August's low crossing at 2.7960.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $4.10 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.79 3/4 would confirm that a top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $3.98. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $4.10 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.79 3/4. Second support is the September 28th low crossing at $3.60 1/2.
December wheat was higher overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off June's low, the October-2018 high crossing at $6.21 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.75 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $6.21. Second resistance is the July-2018 high crossing at $6.29 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.93 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.75 1/2.
December Kansas City wheat was higher overnight. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $5.79 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.11 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $5.51 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $5.79 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.31 3/4. Second support is the the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.11.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $5.60 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.38 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at $5.54 3/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $5.60 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.38 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.32 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends this summer's rally, monthly resistance crossing at $10.82 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.28 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $10.79 3/4. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $10.82 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.28 1/4. Second support is the September 29th low crossing at $9.85 3/4.
December soybean meal was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes this summer's rally, monthly resistance crossing at $404.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $348.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $372.10. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $404.90. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $357.70. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $348.60.
December soybean oil was sharply lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.80 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 35.49 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 34.46. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 35.49. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 31.82. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 30.68.