@kannbwx

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39m

Would #corn stocks be even lower had it not been for covid/ethanol? Maybe, maybe not, but don't forget that farmers responded to the terrible prices by cutting 5 mln acres off intentions. That's worth close to a billion bushels on production.

Yield for U.S. #corn and #soybeans was very similar to/unchanged from last month, but harvested area was reduced for both after a review of certified acreage data from FSA. Corn and soy production both come in below trade expectations as a result.

metmike: Extremely bullish beans!

@kannbwx

Ending stocks for U.S. #soybeans come in at 290 mln bushels for 2020/21, well below trade expectations, on a harvest reduction, increase in exports, and a smaller carryin. #Corn comes in slightly above the trade guess, though close, and #wheat is a hair below.

metmike: Very bullish for beans!

@kannbwx

World ending stocks were generally lighter than expected (especially for #soybeans), though new-crop #wheat lands much higher. #Russia's 2020 harvest was increased 5 mmt. #Ukraine's #corn harvest was cut by 2 mmt. #China's 20/21 bean demand +1 mmt to 100 mmt.

USDA puts 2020/21 ending stocks for U.S. #soybeans at 290 million bushels, down 37% from the Sept. estimate.

 The last time USDA printed a number below 290 mbu? June 2016 for the 2016/17 MY (final 301 mbu). 

The last time stocks were 290 mbu or lower? 2015/16 (final 197 mbu).

U.S. #corn carryout 2020/21: from 3.3 billion bushels in June to 2.17 billion in October, a decline of 35%.

 The June-Oct 2012 decline was larger, both by % and bu (-67% and -1.26 bln bu). But a major crop disaster did not befall the 2020 harvest like it did in 2012.

Throw in a little La Nina dryness in SA and things could get very interesting for beans.  

Yes Jim, the market will be keying on rain forecasts and amounts for huge producer Mato Grosso!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/59680/

Yield for U.S. #corn and #soybeans was very similar to/unchanged from last month, but harvested area was reduced for both after a review of certified acreage data from FSA. Corn and soy production both come in below trade expectations as a result.

 CT was reduced by under 1%, which was actually bearish vs expectations of ~2%. So, despite the bullish effect on CT this week from H Delta (about a 3 cent rise) due to the expected damage on the Mississippi Delta crop, a major region, prices fell back almost a penny after the report to not far above session lows. However, there still was a small gain today due to the storm having earlier affected the market.

Thanks much Larry!

I considered starting a cotton thread this week and especially appreciate your comments on that market.

Am in Detroit with Dad for a couple more days.