KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Monday, June 25, 2018

8:30 AM ET. May CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index

                       NAI (previous 0.34)

                       NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.46)

10:00 AM ET. May New Residential Sales

                       New Home Sales (previous 662K)

                       New Home Sales, M/M% (previous -1.5%)

                       New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 5.4)

10:30 AM ET. June Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

                       Business Activity (previous 26.8)

                       Mfg Production Idx (previous 35.2)

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""

The September NASDAQ 100 closed slightly lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7182.14 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off April's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 7358.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7182.14. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6964.06. 

The September S&P 500 closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2719.41 is the next downside target. If September resumes the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 2796.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 2795.50. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2796.30. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 2737.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2719.41. 

The Dow closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the decline off June's high, the late-May low crossing at 24,247.84 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 24,955.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's gap crossing at 24,825.77. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 24,955.90. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 24,451.99. Second support is the late-May's low crossing at 24,247.84.      

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September T-bonds closed up 2/32's at 144-01.

September T-bonds closed slightly higher on Friday while extending this month's trading range.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 146-06 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 142-01 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 145-28. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 146-06. First support is the reaction low crossing at 142-01. Second support is May's low crossing at 139-11.     

September T-notes closed down 5-points at 119-270.

September T-notes closed slightly lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 120.060 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 117.300 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 120.060. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 121.030. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 118.295. Second support is May's low crossing at 117.300.     

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

August crude oil closed sharply higher on Friday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at 67.87 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. Today's rally was triggered by news that OPEC agreed to a smaller-than-expected production boost than traders had expected. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 61.43 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 68.97. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 72.70.First support is Monday's low crossing at 63.40. Second support is April's low crossing at 61.43. 

August heating oil closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If August extends the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 216.21 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 216.21. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 219.13. First support is Monday's low crossing at 206.89. Second support isthe 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.35. 

August unleaded gas closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 208.46 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If August extends the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 192.52 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 208.46. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 211.38. First support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 198.78. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 192.52.

August Henry natural gas closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.883 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August resumes the rally off May's low, monthly resistance crossing at 3.111, is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3.043. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3.111. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.883. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2.8214.  

CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""

The September Dollar closed lower on Friday confirming yesterday's key reversal down. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.82 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off February's low, weekly resistance crossing at 97.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 95.22. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.82. Second support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 92.82.     

The September Euro closed higher on Friday following Thursday's key reversal up. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 119.40 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If September extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 119.40. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.90. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.78.    

The September British Pound closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off April's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1.3533 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off April's high, weekly support crossing at 1.3048 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.3533. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3631. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 1.3152. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.3048. 

The September Swiss Franc closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above June's high crossing at 1.0302 would renew the rally off May's low while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If September resumes this month's decline, a test of May's low crossing at 1.0057 is the next downside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0302. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 1.0431 is the next upside target. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 1.0086. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.0057. 

The September Canadian Dollar posted a key reversal up on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 74.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.73 is needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.09. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.73. First support is today's low crossing at 74.82. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 74.54.  

The September Japanese Yen closed slightly lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9213 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 0.8992 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9213. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.9320. First support is May's low crossing at 0.9051. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the October-March-rally crossing at 0.9006.   

PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""

August gold closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off April's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off April's high, last-December's low crossing at 1251.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1294.10 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1286.30. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1294.10. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 1262.40. Second support is last-December's low crossing at 1251.90.

July silver closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 16.651 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the aforementioned decline, May's low crossing at 16.070 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 16.651. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 17.350. First support is the reaction low crossing at 16.190. Second support is May's low crossing at 16.070.        

July copper closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, May's low crossing at 301.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 314.49 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 311.77. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 314.49. First support is today's low crossing at 301.35. Second support is May's low crossing at 301.00.   

GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

July Corn closed unchanged at 3.57. 

July corn closed unchanged on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.62 1/4 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. If July renews the decline off May's high, monthly support crossing at 3.35 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.62 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.75. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 3.38 3/4 Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.35 1/2.  

July wheat closed down 5 3/4-cents at 4.89 1/2. 

July wheat closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.12 3/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. Closes below this year's uptrend line crossing near 4.81 would open the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 4.59. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.07 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.12 3/4. First support is this year's uptrend line crossing near 4.81. Second support is March's low crossing at 4.59.        

July Kansas City Wheat closed down 4 1/2-cents at 4.88 3/4. 

July Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.27 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 4.50 1/4. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.12 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.27. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.71 3/4. Second support is January's low crossing at 4.50 1/4. 

July Minneapolis wheat closed down 3 3/4-cents at 5.49. 

July Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, monthly support crossing at 5.15 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.68 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.68 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.88. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 5.41 3/4. Second support is monthly support crossing at 5.15 1/2.  

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

July soybeans closed up 16-cents at 8.96 1/2. 

July soybeans closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.13 1/2 would confirm that a low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May's high, the March-2009 low crossing at 8.38 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.13 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.60 3/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 8.41 1/2. Second support is the March-2009 low crossing at 8.38 1/4.

July soybean meal closed up $8.10 at 339.90. 

July soybean meal closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 355.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 317.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 341.10. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 355.80. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 320.30. Second support is January's low crossing at 317.00. 

July soybean oil closed up 4-points. At 29.23. 

July soybean oil closed higher on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.32 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May's high, the November-2015 low crossing at 26.99 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 29.64. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.32. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 27.79. Second support is the November-2015 crossing at 26.99.

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 

July hogs closed lower $0.65 at $79.82. 

July hogs closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.07 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off April's low, the late-February high crossing at 84.67 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 83.83. Second resistance is the late-February high crossing at 84.67. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.60. Second support is June's low crossing at 75.20.  

October cattle closed up $0.40 at 109.40. 

October cattle closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 110.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 109.80. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 110.05. First support is the reaction low crossing at 103.50. Second support is May's low crossing at 101.50.

August Feeder cattle closed up $0.73 at $149.20. 

August Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 153.88 is the next upside target. Closes below last Friday's low crossing at 142.17 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 150.75. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 153.88. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 142.18. Second support is May's low crossing at 136.25.    

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

July coffee closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 11.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.88 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 

July cocoa closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.21 is the next upside target. If July renews the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 21.02 is the next downside target.  

July sugar closed higher on Friday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off April's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2016-2018-decline crossing at 13.03 is the next upside target. If July renews the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 11.12 is the next downside target.  

July cotton closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, the late-April low crossing at 81.36 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.67 would confirm that a low has been posted.