Coffee used to rally in May, dialing in risk premium for a potential frost/freeze but the last severe one(s) were in 1994 because they moved the coffee plantations farther north, closer to the equator after devastating freezes in the previous decades in far Southern Brazil.
Global warming has helped out a bit too.
This is where they grow coffee in Brazil.....the worlds biggest producer.
The higher the number below, the greater the production. 1=highest.
map of coffee production in brazil agrob
History of frosts/freezes and droughts in Brazil thru 2000.
http://www.coffeeresearch.org/market/frost.htm
http://www.coffeeresearch.org/market/frosthistory.htm
Date | Severity (Damage) | Coffee Frost or Drought |
1902 (Late July/early August) | Devastating | F* |
1918 (June 24-26) | Severe | F* |
1942 (Late June/early July) | Severe | F* |
1943 | Moderate | F* |
1953 (July 4-5) | Severe | F* |
1955 (July 30-August 1) | Severe | slight F |
1957 | Severe | F* |
1962 (July 25-26) | Minor | F* |
1963 (August 5-6) | Moderate | F and D |
1965 | Minor | F* |
1966 (August 6) | Severe | slight F |
1967 (June 8) | Minor | F* |
1969 (July 9-10) | Moderate | F* |
1972 (July 8-9) | Moderate | F* |
1975 (July 17-19) | Very Severe | F* |
1978 (August 13-16) | Moderate | F* |
1979 (June 1) | Moderate | F* |
1981 (July 20-22) | Severe | F* |
1984 (August 25) | Minor | F* |
1985 (August-November) | Minor | D |
1988 | Minor | F* |
1994 (June 25-26 and July 9-10) | Severe/Very Severe | F and D |
1999 (August to November) | Severe (40% crop lost) | D |
2000 (July 17) | Moderate (est) | F* |
* In most cases frost or drought was not indicated by the source. Although only F is written in these cases it is likely a combination of the two forces that caused a devastating coffee crop.
A cold wave is coming thru the next 2 days but should not be cold enough to threaten the coffee. The coffee growing region is in the far, top right of the screen just northeast of where the blues are.
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850anom_f048_shbg.gif
The last 7 days:
Coffee 3 months below
Coffee 5 years below
Drought in Brazil in 2014 caused a spike
Drought in Brazil and bad weather globally in 2010 caused the 2011 spike