INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - June 22, 2018, 8:02 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Friday, June 22, 2018  

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. June US Flash Services PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Services (expected 56.5; previous 55.7)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. June US Flash Manufacturing PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Mfg (expected 56.5; previous 56.6)

 



 

 

Monday, June 25, 2018

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. May CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index

 



 

 

                       NAI (previous 0.34)

 



 

 

                       NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.46)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. May New Residential Sales

 



 

 

                       New Home Sales (previous 662K)

 



 

 

                       New Home Sales, M/M% (previous -1.5%)

 



 

 

                       New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 5.4)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. June Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

 



 

 

                       Business Activity (previous 26.8)

 



 

 

                       Mfg Production Idx (previous 35.2)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7183.21 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off the late-April low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 7358.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7183.21. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6964.47.    



The September S&P 500 was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2719.40 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 2796.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 2795.50. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2796.30. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 2737.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2719.40.     



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were lower overnight while extending this month's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 144-06 would open the door for a possible test of May's high crossing at 145-28. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 142-01 are needed to renew the decline off May's high. First resistance is May's high crossing at 145-28. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 146-03. First support is the reaction low crossing at 142-01. Second resistance is May's low crossing at 139-11.  



September T-notes were lower overnight as they extend June's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 120.060 would confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for a possible test of May's high crossing at 121.030. If September resumes the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 117.300 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 120.060. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 121.030. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 118.295. Second support is May's low crossing at 117.300.   



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS: AugustNymex crude oil was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 67.82 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 61.43 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 67.82. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 68.52. First support is Monday's low crossing at 63.40. Second support is April's low crossing at 61.43.  



August heating oil was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 216.16 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 219.13. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 224.21. First support is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.35. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 199.62.



August unleaded gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 192.52 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 208.28 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 204.34. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 208.28. First support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 198.55. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 192.52.



August Henry natural gas was lower overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rebound off Tuesday's low, Monday's high crossing at 3.043 is the next upside target. If August resumes this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.884 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3.043. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3.111. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.884. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2.821.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was lower overnight following Thursday's key reversal down. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.83 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 97.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 95.22. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.83. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 92.50.



The September Euro was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 117.62 would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.90. If September extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 117.62. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.90. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.79.



The September British Pound was higher overnight as it consolidated some of this year's decline.Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above June's high crossing at 1.3533 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off April's high, weekly support crossing at 1.3048 is the next downside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1.3533. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3631. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 1.3152. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.3048.  



The September Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0210 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. Closes above the 25% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 1.0300 are needed to renew the rally off May's low. If September extends this month's decline, May's low crossing at 1.0057 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 1.0300. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 1.0431. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 1.0086. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.0057. 



The September Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 74.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving averagecrossing at 76.73 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.08. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.73. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 74.54. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 72.83.  



The September Japanese Yen was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9212 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 0.9051 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9212. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.9320. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 0.9073. Second support is May's low crossing at 0.9051. 



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off April's high, last-December's low crossing at 1251.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1294.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1286.20. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1294.00. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 1262.40. Second support is last-December's low crossing at 1251.90.



July silver was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last Thursday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, May's low crossing at 16.070 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 16.644 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 16.644. Second resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 17.350. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 16.190. Second support is May's low crossing at 16.070. 



July copper was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 301.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 314.52 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 311.78. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 314.52. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 301.80. Second support is May's low crossing at 301.00. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



July corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.75 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off May's high, long-term support crossing at 3.35 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.62 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.75. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 3.38 3/4. Second support is long-term support crossing at 3.35 1/2. 



July wheat was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.13 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off May's high, March's low crossing at 4.59 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.07 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.13. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.67. Second support is March's low crossing at 4.59.      



July Kansas City Wheat closed up 4 1/2-cents at 4.93 1/4. 



July Kansas City wheat closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If July extends the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 4.50 1/4. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.30 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.17 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.30. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.71 3/4. Second support is January's low crossing at 4.50 1/4. 



July Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, monthly support crossing at 5.15 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.88 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.68 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.88 1/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 5.41 3/4. Second support is monthly support crossing at 5.15 1/4.   



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July soybeans was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.60 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends this year's decline, the March-2009 low crossing at 8.38 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.12 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.60 1/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 8.41 1/2. Second support is the March-2009 low crossing at 8.38 1/4.



July soybean meal was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 355.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 317.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 340.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 355.50. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 320.30. Second support is January's low crossing at 317.00.



July soybean oil was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.32 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May's high, the November-2015 low crossing at 26.99 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 29.65. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.32. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 27.79. Second support is the November-2015 low crossing at 26.99. 



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



July hogs closed up $0.45 at $80.48. 



July hogs closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.91 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off April's low, the late-February high crossing at 84.67 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 83.83. Second resistance is the late-February high crossing at 84.67. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.91. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.60.  



October cattle closed down $0.28 at 109.00. 



October cattle closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 110.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 109.80. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 110.05. First support is the reaction low crossing at 103.50. Second support is May's low crossing at 101.50.

 

August Feeder cattle closed down $0.95 at $148.48. 



August Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 153.88 is the next upside target. Closes below last Friday's low crossing at 142.17 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 150.75. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 153.88. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 142.18. Second support is May's low crossing at 136.25.    



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



July coffee closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 11.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.89 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 



July cocoa closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.22 is the next upside target. If July renews the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 21.02 is the next downside target.  



July sugar closed slightly lower on Thursday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 11.12 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off April's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2016-2018-decline crossing at 13.03 is the next upside target. 



July cotton closed unchanged on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, the late-April low crossing at 81.36 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.77 would confirm that a low has been posted.

Comments
By metmike - June 22, 2018, 9:47 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks Tallpine!

"July corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near."


Am thinking the same thing. We just need to lighten up on these rain totals and that should happen with the new pattern next week...........but its weather and can change.


W