Grains Thursday
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Started by metmike - June 21, 2018, 10:05 a.m.

Exports sales:

Corn plunged


https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/highlite.htm

Wheat:  Net  sales of 461,600 metric tons were reported for delivery in marketing year  2018/2019.The primary destinations  were the Philippines (137,000 MT, including 50,000 MT switched from unknown  destinations), Japan (118,500 MT, including decreases of 41,900 MT), Thailand  (49,600 MT, including 5,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico  (46,300 MT), and Ecuador (27,800 MT, switched from unknown destinations).Reductions were reported for unknown destinations (13,000 MT) and Algeria  (1,300 MT).Exports of 426,900 MT  were reported to Japan (79,100 MT), South Korea (56,100 MT), the Philippines  (55,000 MT), Indonesia (54,000 MT), and Thailand (53,500 MT).

 Corn: Net sales of 165,900 MT for 2017/2018 were down 82 percent from the previous  week and from the prior 4-week average.Increases were reported for Mexico (214,800 MT, including 32,000 MT  switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 39,800 MT), Japan (142,600  MT, including 83,700 MT switched from unknown destinations, 63,000 MT switched  from South Korea, and decreases of 14,400 MT), Peru (108,000 MT, including  100,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,000 MT), Spain  (71,500 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and the  Netherlands (69,400 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations).Reductions were primarily for unknown destinations (584,700 MT) and South  Korea (61,100 MT).For 2018/2019,  net sales of 339,700 MT reported for South Korea (191,000 MT), Mexico (73,000  MT), and Panama (40,500 MT), were partially offset by reductions for Japan  (1,000 MT).Exports of 1,762,900 MT  were up 25 percent from the previous week and 13 percent from the prior 4-week  average.The destinations were  primarily to Japan (550,700 MT), Mexico (338,900 MT), Spain (182,500 MT), South  Korea (130,000 MT), and Peru (97,000 MT).

 Optional Origin Sales: For 2017/2018, the current optional origin outstanding balance of 417,000 MT is  for South Korea (206,000 MT), unknown destinations (91,000 MT), Saudi Arabia  (70,000 MT), and Egypt (50,000 MT). For 2018/2019, the current outstanding balance of 138,000 MT is for Saudi Arabia  (70,000 MT) and South Korea (68,000 MT).

Barley:Net sales of 400  MT were reported for Taiwan.Exports  of 100 MT were to Taiwan.

Sorghum:Net sales of  55,000 MT were reported for unknown destinations.Exports of 1,100 MT were down 78 percent from the previous week and 96  percent from the prior 4-week average.The destination was Mexico.

 Rice: Net sales of 8,600 MT for 2017/2018 were down 72 percent from the previous week  and 85 percent from the prior 4-week average.Increases reported for Saudi Arabia (6,100 MT), Canada (1,400 MT,  including decreases of 100 MT), Hong Kong (800 MT), and Guatemala (400 MT), were  partially offset by reductions for Mexico (1,000 MT).Exports of 36,300 MT were up noticeably from the previous week, but down  54 percent from the prior 4-week average.The destinations were Haiti (15,300 MT), Japan (12,200 MT), Mexico (3,000  MT), Saudi Arabia (2,200 MT), and Canada (1,700 MT).

 Soybeans: Net sales of 301,700 MT for 2017/2018 were down 42 percent from the previous  week, but up 48 percent from the prior 4-week average.Increases were reported for the Netherlands (240,300 MT, including  219,300 MT switched from unknown destinations), Vietnam (82,300 MT, including  66,000 MT switched from China), Saudi Arabia (65,900 MT, including 60,000 MT  switched from unknown destinations), Japan (54,700 MT, including 9,500 MT  switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 600 MT), and Germany (52,500  MT, including 55,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of  2,500 MT).Reductions were primarily  for unknown destinations (204,300 MT) and China (66,000 MT). For 2018/2019, net sales of 227,600 MT were primarily for unknown destinations  (172,000 MT) and Japan (23,100 MT). Exports of 992,000 MT were up 66 percent from the previous week and 49 percent  from the prior 4-week average.The  destinations were to the Netherlands (240,300 MT), Egypt (155,900 MT), Taiwan  (87,700 MT), Mexico (79,100 MT), and Vietnam (78,500 MT).

 Optional Origin Sales: For 2018/2019, new optional origin sales of 63,000 MT were reported for unknown  destinations.The current optional  origin outstanding balance of 228,000 MT is for China (165,000 MT) and unknown  destinations (63,000 MT).

 Export for Own Account: New exports for own account totaling 29,700 MT were reported to Canada.The current outstanding balance of 71,400 MT is for Canada.

 Soybean Cake and Meal: Net sales of 115,100 MT for 2017/2018 were up 54 percent from the previous week,  but down 22 percent from the prior 4-week average.Increases were reported for Colombia (31,600 MT), Japan (19,300 MT), the  Dominican Republic (17,500 MT), Mexico (15,900 MT, including decreases of 200  MT), and Canada (12,700 MT). Reductions were reported for Chile (1,600 MT), Spain (500 MT), and Nicaragua  (200 MT).For 2018/2019, net sales  of 5,000 MT were primarily for Japan (2,300 MT) and Guatemala (1,800 MT).Exports of 210,100 MT were down 32 percent from the previous week and 13  percent from the prior 4-week average.The primary destinations were Spain (69,000 MT), Mexico (25,200 MT),  Japan (20,200 MT), Colombia (20,000 MT), and Canada (18,900 MT).

 Soybean Oil: Net sales of 16,000 MT for 2017/2018 were up noticeably from the previous week  and 91 percent from the prior 4-week average.Increases were primarily for Colombia (7,000 MT), Jamaica (3,500 MT),  Mexico (2,800 MT), the Dominican Republic (1,500 MT), and Canada (1,000 MT).For 2018/2019, net sales of 2,800 MT were reported for Canada.Exports of 29,900 MT were up 94 percent from the previous week and 5  percent from the prior 4-week average.The primary destinations were Peru (17,600 MT), the Dominican Republic  (9,000 MT), and Mexico (2,900 MT).

 Cotton: Net sales reductions of 112,400 running bales for 2017/2018 were down noticeably  from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.Increases were reported for China (31,700 RB, including 5,500 RB switched  from Vietnam and decreases of 10,700 RB), Turkey (3,200 RB, including decreases  of 2,400 RB), Thailand (1,400 RB, including decreases of 600 RB), Italy (400  RB), and Malaysia (300 RB). Reductions were primarily for Vietnam (68,300 RB), Indonesia (40,500 RB), and  Hong Kong (26,400 RB).For  2018/2019, net sales of 295,400 RB reported for China (211,700 RB), Hong Kong  (26,400 RB), and Mexico (17,500 RB), were partially offset by reductions for  Indonesia (18,100 RB) and Honduras (500 RB).Exports of 312,800 RB were down 32 percent from the previous week and 31  percent from the prior 4-week average.The primary destinations were Turkey (47,500 RB), Vietnam (46,300 RB),  Indonesia (45,300 RB), Pakistan (25,000 RB), and Mexico (22,600 RB).Net sales reductions of Pima totaling 200 RB for 2017/2018 resulted as  increases for Pakistan (2,600 RB), Peru (600 RB), Bangladesh (300 RB), and  Thailand (200 RB, switched from Japan), were more than offset by reductions for  Hong Kong (2,200 RB), India (1,200 RB), China (300 RB), and Japan (200 RB).For 2018/2019, net sales of 46,000 RB were primarily for China (21,000  RB) and Pakistan (18,000 RB). Exports of 7,400 RB were down 20 percent from the previous week and 36 percent  from the prior 4-week

Comments
By metmike - June 21, 2018, 2:11 p.m.
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Despite corn having horrible sales and tons of rain, we should close higher but still 50c off the highs from a few weeks ago.

By metmike - June 21, 2018, 2:12 p.m.
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SX should barely close above $9 but a whopping $1.60 off the highs from less than 3 weeks ago and near the lows of the day.


Update at 1:16pm, we barely took out $9 after the 1:15p close and will end up close to that level.

CZ will finish +2c or so at around $3.78.


By metmike - June 21, 2018, 2:22 p.m.
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To start moving higher, we need to either get past all this rain coming up or take some out it out of the forecast:

Total accumulation

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1526397762






http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1526397762

By metmike - June 21, 2018, 2:23 p.m.
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2 week rains from last GFS:

gfs_namer_384_precip_ptot.gif

By metmike - June 21, 2018, 3:05 p.m.
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Crop ratings:

Corn actually went up +1%  GD/EX. Not a surprise considering how much rain fell in the key corn areas.

Beans went down -1% GD/EX, not a surprise considering MO/AR have missed all the rains and they grow more beans than corn. MO has 19% P/VP, which is what would have happened to other states if the huge rains did not come in the nick of time.


Cotton plunged more.......-4% in the GD/EX but +5% in the P/VP for the 2nd week in a row, with 26% of the crop in this category.  The TX/OK crop is doing horrible but also AL has 15% P/VP. Huge acres planted this year but the crop is just 38% GD/EX vs 61% last year.

Big rains in the north caused the Spring Wheat crop rating to soar +8%, to a near record 78% vs 41% GD/EX last year.  

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProg/CropProg-06-18-2018.txt


By metmike - June 21, 2018, 3:09 p.m.
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Latest drought monitor:

                                  

Drought Monitor for conus

Previous Drought Monitor below:

Drought Monitor for conus

By metmike - June 21, 2018, 3:11 p.m.
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https://mrcc.illinois.edu/cliwatch/drought/drought.jsp


Shorter term moisture that looks at rain totals over the last 4 weeks. The previous map is below. Much more blue showing up in IA/IL/IN, with a lot of rain since June 17th:

Map for: June 17, 2018 (Week 24)


Map for: June 10, 2018 (Week 23)






By metmike - June 21, 2018, 3:11 p.m.
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https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/vci/VH/vh_browseByCountry.php


Despite the previous maps showing alot of brown and looking very dry:

 United States, Greenness (No Noise NDVI)

United States, SMN


This map is very misleading and not that good at telling the real story. Look at the same map for the same week during the severe drought of 2012 below(looks waaaay too green)

Greeness (No Noise NDVI)

United States, SMN
By metmike - June 21, 2018, 3:33 p.m.
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NWS extended........still hot and wet. Look for the 8-14 day outlooks to start drying out soon:


Temperature Probability 8-14 day

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability