Some reality has kicked in to NG. Considering the withdrawal next week is going to be huge and the one after that is probably going to be pretty healthy too and maybe even the one after that, any upside projections?
By my charts, you're late by a couple of days. But definitely an upside move that seems to be weather driven. Maybe to 3.20.
Just got back from Florida. It was in the 30s in South Carolina this morning. In fact it was in the mid 40s over night in Florida.
The market started pricing this in on tuesday. Based on changing forecasts of course.
I have 2 Feb call options at 2.8 that I bought about 2 weeks ago. Pondering when and where to exit.
We're already into local problems with gas supply in New England, and the cold is driving people nuts.
Rationally, it may be priced in, but this could be a very wild couple weeks.
It's hard to say what is priced in. We haven't had a hard winter yet with all the coal fired electric plants that have converted to NG. Exports are up. It's not just cold, it's record cold. And the cold just keeps on coming. On the flip side we have record production.
Thursday is going to be interesting.