KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, June 20, 2018
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 365.3)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -1.5%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 249.0)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -1.5%)
Refinance Idx (previous 992.2)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -1.5%)
8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter International Transactions
Current Account (USD) (expected -130.0B; previous -128.16B)
10:00 AM ET. May Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (expected 5.54M; previous 5.46M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (expected +1.5%; previous -2.5%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 4.0)
Median Price (USD) (previous 257900)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +5.3%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 432.441M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -4.143M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 236.763M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.271M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 114.693M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.101M)
Refinery Usage (previous 95.7%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.801M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +3.345M)
Thursday, June 21, 2018
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 220K; previous 218K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -4K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1697000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -49K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1176.6K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 810.6K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 302.4K)
8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter State Quarterly Personal Income
8:30 AM ET. June Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (expected 28.5; previous 34.4)
Prices Paid (previous 52.6)
Employment (previous 30.2)
New Orders (previous 40.6)
Prices Received (previous 36.4)
Delivery Times (previous 18.5)
Inventories (previous 8.1)
Shipments 25.8)
9:00 AM ET. April U.S. Monthly House Price Index
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. May Leading Indicators
Leading Index (expected +0.3%; previous +0.4%)
Coincident Index (previous +0.3%)
Lagging Index (previous +0.3%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1913B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +96B)
11:00 AM ET. ABA Economic Advisory Committee economic forecast
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Reserve Board releases latest supervisory stress test results
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
Friday, June 22, 2018
9:45 AM ET. June US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (expected 56.5; previous 55.7)
9:45 AM ET. June US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (expected 56.5; previous 56.6)
Monday, June 25, 2018
8:30 AM ET. May CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous 0.34)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.46)
10:00 AM ET. May New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (previous 662K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (previous -1.5%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 5.4)
10:30 AM ET. June Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous 26.8)
Mfg Production Idx (previous 35.2)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as worries about a U.S.-China trade war appeared to ebb for now, tempting some investors to wade into a market that took a hard hit on those concerns a day earlier. Investors were also looking ahead to comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and existing home sales data. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off the late-April low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7154.91 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 7321.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7154.91. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6940.30.
The September S&P 500 was higher overnight as talk that the trade war with China eased overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2757.66 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 2796.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 2795.50. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2796.30. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2757.66. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2715.38.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight as they remain poised to breakout to the topside of this month's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 144-06 would open the door for a possible test of May's high crossing at 145-28. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 142-01 are needed to renew the decline off May's high. First resistance is May's high crossing at 145-28. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 146-03. First support is the reaction low crossing at 142-01. Second resistance is May's low crossing at 139-11.
September T-notes were steady to slightly lower overnight as they extend June's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 120.005 would confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for a possible test of May's high crossing at 121.030. If September resumes the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 117.300 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 120.005. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 121.030. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 118.295. Second support is May's low crossing at 117.300.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: JulyNymex crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 68.07 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 61.73 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 66.55. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 68.07. First support is Monday's low crossing at 63.59. Second support is April's low crossing at 61.73.
July heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.38 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 216.91 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 224.01. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 229.87. First support is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.38. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 199.62.
July unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 194.27 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 211.57 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 211.57. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 219.87. First support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 200.25. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 194.27.
July Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's sharp decline.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.866 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.949 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3.053. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3.111. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.866. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2.804.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 95.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.74 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 94.99. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 95.07. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 92.82. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 92.28.
The September Euro was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 119.40 would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.21. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 119.40. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.21. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.79.
The September British Pound was lower overnight as it extends this year's decline.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off April's high, last-November's low crossing at 1.3194 is the next downside target. Closes above June's high crossing at 1.3533 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1.3533. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3670. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.3199. Second support is last November's low crossing at 1.3194.
The September Swiss Franc was lower overnight and poised to renew the decline off June's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, May's low crossing at 1.0057 is the next downside target. Closes above the 25% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 1.0300 would renew the rally off May's low. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 1.0300. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 1.0431. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.0088. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.0057.
The September Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off April's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 74.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving averagecrossing at 77.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.00. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 74.54. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 72.83.
The September Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low is in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9225 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 0.9051 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9225. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.9320. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 0.9073. Second support is May's low crossing at 0.9051.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1268.40 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 1313.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 1313.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1314.80. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1272.10. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1268.40.
July silver was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off last Thursday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, the reaction low crossing at 16.190 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 16.727 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 17.350. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 17.425. First support is the reaction low crossing at 16.190. Second support is May's low crossing at 16.070.
July copper was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. However, the low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 301.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 318.57 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 315.04. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 318.57. First support is the overnight low crossing at 303.45. Second support is May's low crossing at 301.00.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. Tuesday's spike lower following by a high-range close suggest that a short-term low appears to have been posted. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, long-term support crossing at 3.35 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.66 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.80. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 3.38 3/4. Second support is long-term support crossing at 3.35 1/2.
July wheat was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, March's low crossing at 4.59 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.16 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.07 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.16 1/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.67. Second support is March's low crossing at 4.59.
July Kansas City Wheat closed down 16 1/2-cents at 4.8.
July Kansas City wheat closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off May's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 4.50 1/4. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.35 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.35 1/2. Second resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 5.88. First support is today's low crossing at 4.71 3/4. Second support is January's low crossing at 4.50 1/4.
July Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, monthly support crossing at 5.15 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.97 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.77 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.97. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 5.41 3/4. Second support is monthly support crossing at 5.15 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. Ongoing concerns over the trade war with China continue to weigh on soybean prices. Themid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the March-2009 low crossing at 8.38 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.75 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.30 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.75 3/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 8.41 1/2. Second support is the March-2009 low crossing at 8.38 1/4.
July soybean meal was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 317.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 360.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 345.90. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 360.30. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 320.30. Second support is January's low crossing at 317.00.
July soybean oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.55 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May's high, the November-2015 low crossing at 26.99 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 29.88. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.55. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 27.79. Second support is the November-2015 low crossing at 26.99.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
July hogs closed down $1.85 at $81.88.
July hogs closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the late-February high crossing at 84.67 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.46 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 83.83. Second resistance is the late-February high crossing at 84.67. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 81.27. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.46.
October cattle closed up $0.92 at 105.50.
October cattle closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 110.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 108.90. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 110.05. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 103.50. Second support is May's low crossing at 101.50.
August Feeder cattle closed up $0.65 at $149.63.
August Feeder cattle closed higher on Tuesday and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 153.88 is the next upside target. Closes below last Friday's low crossing at 142.17 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 149.93. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 153.88. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 142.18. Second support is May's low crossing at 136.25.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
July coffee closed lower on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 11.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.92 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
July cocoa closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.23 is the next upside target. If July renews the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 21.02 is the next downside target.
July sugar closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 11.12 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off April's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2016-2018-decline crossing at 13.03 is the next upside target.
July cotton closed limit down on Tuesday and below May's low crossing at 83.36 as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, the late-April low crossing at 81.36 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 91.82 would confirm that a low has been posted.