Rains the past 24 hours.......IA and points west and east over the top of the heat ridge.
Most importantly........forecast rains.
Rains the next 7 days .........will shift farther south and now are predicted to bomb, key growing areas for corn/beans over the top of the heat ridge in the south. Some places will have excessive rains but rain makes grain now.
Day 1:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Total accumulation
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1526397762
Pretty decent threat area for excessive rains but at this time of year, rain makes grain.
Excessive rain threat too
Current Day 1 Forecast Valid 15Z 06/11/18 - 12Z 06/12/18 |
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
| Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts |
Current Day 2 Forecast Valid 12Z 06/12/18 - 12Z 06/13/18 |
Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 3 Forecast Valid 12Z 06/13/18 - 12Z 06/14/18 |
Severe Storm Risk for the next few days:
Current Day 1 Outlook | Forecaster: Hart/Kerr Issued: 18/1240Z Valid: 18/1300Z - 19/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Slight Risk |
Current Day 2 Outlook | Forecaster: Bunting Issued: 18/0600Z Valid: 19/1200Z - 20/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk |
Current Day 3 Outlook | Forecaster: Bunting Issued: 18/0731Z Valid: 20/1200Z - 21/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk |
Current Day 4-8 Outlook | Forecaster: Bunting Issued: 18/0856Z Valid: 21/1200Z - 25/1200Z Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 15%, 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point). |
By cfdr - June 19, 2018, 7:27 a.m.
Looks like where I'm headed shortly it will stay very cool - on the west slope of mountains in Banff. I heard from a friend that the bug hatch is late this year, so the fishing is slow yet. That's perfect, as we are a bit delayed. (g)
Still can't help but see this as a very unusual global picture
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-93.90,34.80,400
I've never seen such chaotic air flow patterns. But, as long as the water is pumped up out of the Gulf, a drought (obviously) cannot set up. Even though the pattern in this country appears to be perfectly setting up for an eastern corn belt drought.
Chaotic systems - like weather and climate - not predictable for anything but short term
This is what the dome looked like on the last GFS.
gfs_namer_384_200_wnd_ht | gfs_namer_384_500_vort_ht |
gfs_namer_384_1000_500_thick | gfs_namer_384_850_temp_ht |
CFS weeks 3 and 4 really heats things up.
Turns drier in some places
Total rains from the last GFS, mostly week 1.
Temperatures cooling off now in the Upper Midwest and cooling spreads south:
Highs days 3-7 shows even more cooling in the Midwest that wasn't there on forecasts yesterday.
Week 2 temperature anomalies from the GFS ensemble mean are still impressively positive for much of the country.
Latest Canadian ensembles. Where will the heat ridge/dome be?
384h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 05, 2018 12 UTC
Forecasts for the control (GEM 0)
More heat in the NWS extended guidance. Things might start drying out in week 2(my opinion)
Temperature Probability 6-10 day | ||
Precipitation Probability
| ||
Extreme weather for days 3-7
Last GFS has impressive dome in week 2. So whats new?
gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht | gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht |
gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick | gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht |
