INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - June 19, 2018, 7:48 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Tuesday, June 19, 2018  

 



 

 

7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +1.7%)

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +4.4%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. May New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits

 



 

 

                       Total Starts (expected 1.31M; previous 1.287M)

 



 

 

                       Housing Starts, M/M% (expected +1.8%; previous -3.7%)

 



 

 

                       Building Permits (expected 1.35M; previous 1.352M)

 



 

 

                       Building Permits, M/M% (expected -0.1%; previous -1.8%)

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -0.2%)

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +4.3%)

 



 

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +4.3%)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 



 

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.833M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.3M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.1M)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was sharply lower overnight as global equities careened lower on a fresh threat by President Donald Trump to slap up to $400 billion more in tariffs on China goods, the latest escalation in a worrying trade dispute. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7137.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off the late-April low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 7321.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7134.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6926.57.    



The September S&P 500 was sharply lower overnight as talk that the trade war with China might be heating up as additional tariffs were proposed by President Trump. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2754.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 2796.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 2795.50. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2796.30. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2754.60. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2712.72.     



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were higher overnight as they are poised to breakout to the topside of this month's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 144-06 would open the door for a possible test of May's high crossing at 145-28. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 142-01 are needed to renew the decline off May's high. First resistance is May's high crossing at 145-28. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 146-03. First support is the reaction low crossing at 142-01. Second resistance is May's low crossing at 139-11.  



September T-notes were higher overnight as they extend the rally off last Wednesday's low. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 120.005 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 117.300 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 120.005. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 121.030. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 118.295. Second support is May's low crossing at 117.300.   



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS: JulyNymex crude oil was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 61.73 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 68.07 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 66.89. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 68.07. First support is Monday's low crossing at 63.59. Second support is April's low crossing at 61.73.  



July heating oil was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.38 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 217.73 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 224.01. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 229.87. First support is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.38. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 199.62.



July unleaded gas was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 194.27 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 212.71 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 212.71. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 219.87. First support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 200.25. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 194.27.



July Henry natural gas was lower overnight following Monday's huge key reversal down.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.942 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off May's low, monthly resistance crossing at 3.111 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3.053. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3.111. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.942. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.863.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 95.07 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 92.82 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 92.16. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 94.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 95.07. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 92.82. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 92.16.



The September Euro was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 119.40 would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.38. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 119.40. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.38. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.79.



The September British Pound was lower in overnight trading as it extends this year's decline.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off April's high, last-November's low crossing at 1.3194 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1.3533 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.3533. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.3695. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.3213. Second support is last November's low crossing at 1.3194.  



The September Swiss Franc was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, May's low crossing at 1.0057 is the next downside target. Closes above the 25% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 1.0300 would renew the rally off May's low. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 1.0300. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 1.0431. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.0088. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.0057. 



The September Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off April's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 74.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving averagecrossing at 77.15 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.15. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.96. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 74.54. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 72.83.  



The September Japanese Yen was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a lower is in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 0.9220 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 0.9051 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9231. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.9320. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 0.9073. Second support is May's low crossing at 0.9051. 



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1268.40 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 1313.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 1313.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1316.30. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1277.30. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1268.40.



July silver was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last Thursday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends last-Friday's decline, the reaction low crossing at 16.190 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 16.767 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 17.350. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 17.425. First support is the reaction low crossing at 16.190. Second support is May's low crossing at 16.070. 



July copper was sharply lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 312.34 would open the door for a possible test of May's low crossing at 301.00. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 321.03 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 315.54. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 321.03. First support is the overnight low crossing at 305.40. Second support is May's low crossing at 301.00. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



July corn was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high to a new contract low. Bearish weather forecast along with concerns over the trade war with China continue to weight on corn prices. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, long-term support crossing at 3.44 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.82 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.68. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.82 1/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at 3.47 1/4. Second support is long-term support crossing at 3.44 1/2. 



July wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the late-April low crossing at 4.67 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.18 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.08. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.18 1/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at 4.80. Second support is the late-April low crossing at 4.67 3/4.      



July Kansas City Wheat closed down 20 1/4-cents at 4.99 1/2. 



July Kansas City wheat closed lower on Monday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the reaction low crossing at 4.94 3/4. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.37 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 5.88. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 5.74 3/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.94 3/4. Second support is March's low crossing at 4.75 1/2. 



July Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, December-2016 low crossing at 5.57 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.01 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.82 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.01 1/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at 5.60. Second support is the December-2016 low crossing at 5.57 3/4.   



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July soybeans was sharply lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. Bearish weather forecast for the Midwest along with ongoing concerns over the trade war with China continue to weigh on soybean prices.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the August-2015 low crossing at 8.76 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.82 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.40. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.82 1/2. First support is the overnight low crossing at 8.82 1/4. Second support is the August-2015 low crossing at 8.76 3/4.



July soybean meal was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 87% retracement level of the January-May-rally crossing at 339.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 362.10 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 348.40. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 362.10. First support is the 87% retracement level of the January-May-rally crossing at 328.50. Second support is January's low crossing at 317.00.



July soybean oil was sharply lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the August-2015 low crossing at 28.17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.67 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 30.04. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.67. First support is the overnight low crossing at 28.74. Second support is the August-2015 low crossing at 28.17. 



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