KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Friday, June 15, 2018  

8:30 AM ET. June Empire State Manufacturing Survey

                       Mfg Idx (expected 18.0; previous 20.1)

                       Employment Idx (previous 8.7)

                       New Orders Idx (previous 16.0)

                       Prices Received (previous 23.0)

9:15 AM ET. May Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization

                       Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.7%)

                       Capacity Utilization % (expected 78.1%; previous 78.0%)

                       Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.4)

10:00 AM ET. June University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary

                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 98.3; previous 98.8)

                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 89.5)

                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 113.3)

10:00 AM ET. May Regional & State Employment & Unemployment

4:00 PM ET. April Treasury International Capital Data

  N/A               Delaware Separation Day holiday

Monday, June 18, 2018  

10:00 AM ET. June NAHB Housing Market Index

                       Housing Mkt Idx (previous 70)

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  

The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as the U.S. government stepped up its trade war with China. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off the late-April low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7104.36 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 7321.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7225.35. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7104.34.    

The September S&P 500 was lower overnight as the trade war with China heats up. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2750.52 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 2796.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 2795.50. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2796.30. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2776.01. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2750.52.      

INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"

INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were higher overnight as they extend this month's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 142-01 are needed to renew the decline off May's high. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 144-06 would open the door for a possible test of May's high crossing at 145-28. First resistance is May's high crossing at 145-28. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 146-03. First support is the reaction low crossing at 142-01. Second resistance is May's low crossing at 139-11.  

September T-notes were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 120.005 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 117.300 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 120.005. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 121.030. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 118.295. Second support is May's low crossing at 117.300.   

ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"

ENERGY MARKETS: JulyNymex crude oil was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.68 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 61.73 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.68. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 68.67. First support is June's low crossing at 64.22. Second support is April's low crossing at 61.73.  

July heating oil was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.38 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 219.43 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 224.01. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 229.87. First support is the 38% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 211.14. Second support is  the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.38.

July unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 215.01 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 200.25 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 215.01. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 219.87. First support is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.59. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 200.25.

July Henry natural gas was higher overnight while extending the trading range of the past three-weeks.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off May's low, last-October's high crossing at 3.043 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 2.864 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 3.000. Second resistance is last-October's high crossing at 3.043. First support is the reaction low crossing at 2.864. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.850.  

CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"

CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 95.07 is the next upside target. Closes below Thursday's low crossing at 92.82 would open the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 91.94. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 94.82. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 95.07. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 92.82. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 91.94.

The September Euro was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends Thursday's decline, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36 is the next downside target. Closes above Thursday's high crossing at 119.40 would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.69. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 119.40. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.69. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.79.

The September British Pound was higher in late-overnight trading.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off April's high, last-November's low crossing at 1.3194 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 1.3536 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 1.3533. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.3695. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.3266. Second support is last November's low crossing at 1.3194.  

The September Swiss Franc was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off last Thursday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's decline, May's low crossing at 1.0057 is the next downside target. Closes above the 25% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 1.0300 would renew the rally off May's low. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 1.0300. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 1.0431. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.0090. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.0057. 

The September Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off April's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off April's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 76.06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving averagecrossing at 77.42 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.42. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.10. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 76.06. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 75.53.  

The September Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 0.9051 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 0.9220 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9244. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.9320. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.9073. Second support is May's low crossing at 0.9051. 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"

PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1312.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If August resumes the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1283.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1312.60. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1319.30. First support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1283.70. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1268.40.

July silver was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's rally, April's high crossing at 17.425 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.676 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 17.350. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 17.425. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 16.855. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.676. 

July copper was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 315.78 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off May's low, last-December's high crossing at 334.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 331.55. Second resistance is last-December's high crossing at 334.20. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 315.78. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 312.42. 

GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains

July corn was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high to a new contract low. Benign weather forecast along with today's announcement of some 50$ billion in new tariffs being place on China continue to weight on corn prices. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, long-term support crossing at 3.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.87 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.74. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.87 1/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at 3.59 3/4. Second support is long-term support crossing at 3.50. 

July wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, May's low crossing at 4.86 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.20 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 5.38 3/4. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 5.54. First support is May's low crossing at 4.86 1/4. Second support is the late-April low crossing at 4.67 3/4.      

July Kansas City Wheat closed down 16 3/4-cents at 5.22 1/4. 

July Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 5.02 1/2. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at 5.88 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 5.74 3/4. Second resistance isthe 75% retracement level of the July-December-decline crossing at 5.77. First support is June's low crossing at 5.18 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at 5.02 1/2. 

July Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, April-2017 low crossing at 5.70 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.07 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.89 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.07 3/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at 5.75. Second support is the April-2017 low crossing at 5.70 1/4.   

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

July soybeans was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2018-rally crossing at 9.03 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.94 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.62 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.94 1/2. First support is the overnight low crossing at 9.11. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2018-rally crossing at 9.03 3/4. 

July soybean meal was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 87% retracement level of the January-May-rally crossing at 339.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 366.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 355.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 366.50. First support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May-rally crossing at 339.30. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the January-May-rally crossing at 339.30.

July soybean oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016-rally crossing at 29.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 31.09 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 30.41. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.89. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 29.78. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016-rally crossing at 29.35. 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 

July hogs closed down $1.15 at $81.63. 

July hogs closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the late-February high crossing at 84.67 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.15 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 83.30. Second resistance is the late-February high crossing at 84.67. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 79.91. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.15.  

October cattle closed down $2.13 at 104.80. 

October cattle closed sharply lower on Thursday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 105.76 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top is in or near. If October renews the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 110.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 108.90. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 110.05. First support is the reaction low crossing at 104.40. Second support is May's low crossing at 101.50.

August Feeder cattle closed down $1.98 at $143.67. 

August Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 144.11 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 153.88 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 149.50. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 153.88. First support is the reaction low crossing at 142.67. Second support is May's low crossing at 136.25.    

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

July coffee closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, April's low crossing at 11.53 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.95 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. 

July cocoa closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.71 would confirm that a low has been posted. If July renews the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 21.02 is the next downside target.  

July sugar closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off April's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2016-2018-decline crossing at 13.03 is the next upside target. If July renews the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 11.12 is the next downside target. 

July cotton closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top is in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.09 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends this year's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 97.35 is the next upside target.