Last week's EIA report was based on the temps/period below

This weeks EIA storage report(out at 9:30am) will be based on the period below:

Last weeks storage report:

+92 bcf injection............about as expected by the market but bearish vs Larry's guess.

http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

EIA number came out +96 bcf...........bearish. Market spiking down to the lows following the release.

       Here are the numbers for the just released EIA storage report:      

Mike, we tied for the win! Congrats fellow cowinner! 

Am happy to share top honors with you Larry!

Good tech analysis for crude/ng right now:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sV3b_ffOxy8

  Initiated a short position with a ng July 295 put.

  NGN has a series of lower highs with notable resistance at 298.  I some respects, I am surprised ng not falling quicker, but sooner the path of least resistance will be DOWN 

  Trade well

Thanks for sharing the trade with us tjc.

You will make money on that trade if the weather pattern turns cooler.

However, the last run of the GFS was hotter and is supporting natural gas this evening.

Since its week 2 weather and very uncertain, we might be cooler or hotter overnight.

It maps get hotter, we will likely break out to the upside and above $3 tomorrow. 

Decided to just build on yesterday's NG thread.

  FRIDAY:

July Natural Gas Hits $3 Ahead of Open as Heat Remains Supportive

     8:51 AM    

July natural gas prices were set to open 4 cents higher at $3.005 as heat remained the dominant force in trading action even after Thursday’s surprise storage report. 

Temp anomolies the next 5 days

For highs below

FOR LOWS BELOW

Temp anomolies days 3-7     FOR HIGHS BELOW

FOR LOWS BELOW

   Last Canadian ensembles the most bullish(hottest) yet with the heat ridge         

384h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 1, 2018 12UTC

Forecasts for global GEM, control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members

NGN's huge breakout today, now looks like previous resistance at $3.010 was good buying support today. ........$3.008 actually was the test around noon.

It means ZERO if we come in next week with cooler forecasts. Then, todays high will be a triple top with the Jan 2018 and Oct/Nov 2017 highs..........at least on the July NG charts. 

Some pretty extreme and sustained  heat got us up here(projections of huge residential cooling demand, ramping up ng burning to generate the additional usage of electricity).

Take that out to temps close to average and we collapse lower. 

Keep adding heat and ng can keep going higher.

Looking at the price of natural gas at longer and longer time frames gives one a different(wider) perspective...........now if you are a day trader.........who cares (-:

               Natural  gas 3 month

Natural gas 1 year below

Natural gas 5 years below

Natural gas 10 years below

                By metmike - June 11, 2018, 11:51 a.m.            

Good article from last week on fundamentals in natural gas.

Hot Summer =$3+ for ng in my opinion.....metmike

'Tremendous Growth' in Natural Gas Demand, Production Equals Flat Prices This Summer, Says NGSA

An analysis of weather forecasts, the economy, consumer demand, and production and storage of natural gas points to neutral price pressure this summer, according to the Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA).

"Our expectation for flat price pressure is based on a forecast for tremendous growth in demand that is matched by even more impressive growth in production," NGSA said in its 2018 Summer Outlook for Natural Gas, which was released Thursday.

More from the article:

"NGSA expects  record demand this summer to be "fueled by record growth in electric sector demand for natural gas due to massive natural gas-fired generation additions since last summer, along with temporary coal-to-gas switching" that together will add up to a 10% increase in demand from the sector compared with summer 2017. Demand from the residential and commercial sectors is expected to increase by 7% and industrial demand is expected to increase slightly as well.

At the same time, liquefied natural gas exports will increase 1.6 Bcf/d compared with last summer, and exports to Mexico will increase 0.5 Bcf/d, according to NGSA forecasts.

"When all sectors are combined, overall demand is projected to be more than 6 Bcf/d (9%) greater than the summer of 2017 and thus to place upward pressure on natural gas prices compared to last summer," NGSA said.

But that upward pressure will be met by production that "is projected to smash through previous robust levels," placing nearly equal downward pressure on prices.

In an assessment of energy markets released earlier this month, FERC said demand for gas from power generators may approach record highs this summer.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is forecasting natural gas power burn will average 35.16 Bcf/d in June, July and August, just 0.3 Bcf/d less than the record high set in summer 2016 and 3 Bcf/d higher than last year, according to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission analysis.

Using data from EIA and Energy Ventures Analysis, NGSA analyzes factors that place upward or downward pressure on natural gas prices, but does not forecast actual prices. In addition to the influence of demand and production, NGSA said expected higher gas injections into storage would place upward pressure on prices this summer, economic factors including steady growth in gross domestic product would bring neutral pressure, and weather conditions including temperatures expected to be 5% cooler than summer 2017 would produce downward pressure.

Wild card factors that could play a hand in summer natural gas prices include "an unpredicted and very active hurricane/storm season...which would mainly affect demand, since most onshore producing gas fields are not vulnerable to hurricanes," NGSA said."

From "Weather Friday" earlier this morning.

If will take these temps below and/or extended temp forecasts to cool off for ng to drop back below $3(in my opinion)....,and that can happen pretty fast in the world of weather.... the latest European model just out has a bit less heat

Highs days 3-7.

Closing comments from Friday:

Nymex July Soars Past $3 as June Heads for Hottest on Record

July natural gas was uncharacteristically active Friday as traders eyed increasingly hotter trends in the latest weather forecasts and the potential hotter temperatures may have on already below-normal storage inventories. The Nymex July gas futures contract settled 5.7 cents higher at $3.02

Natural gas gapped higher on the open(the lows early tonight were higher than the highs from Friday) but barely filled that gap 3 hours later, with the drop to the lows this evening..........$3.033.

Mixed temperatures for the natural gas.

Seems a bit cooler later this week into early next week, especially in the Midwest/Plains but then the GFS products have a much hotter solution late in week 2. 

  NG opened much higher Sunday evening, into new ground, but has since consistently eroded.

  Significant Reversal forming.

  (Perhaps I am merely 'early' rather than wrong---beauty of an option giving you time)

 Similar to what Mike said, the forecasts I’ve seen vs Fri are warmer in week 2 but are cooler in week one. Though they are pretty flat forecasts for the 2 week period overall vs Fri, the higher reliability of week 1 appears to be taking precedence over the much lower reliability of week 2. 

 NG usually trades the entire 2 weeks in some way, shape, or form. If the overall two week forecast looks pretty flat but week one looks warmer (cooler) while week 2 looks cooler (warmer), it sometimes puts more emphasis on the much more reliable week 1, sometimes puts more emphasis on the much less reliable week 2 especially if the week 2 forecast change is larger, and sometimes puts about equal emphasis on the 2 weeks. A lot of this depends on what’s dialed in beforehand, which way prices had recently moved, and seasonal as well as nonwx factors like recent storage trends and perceived supply/nonwx related demand balance actual and forecasted changes.