Bullish USDA crop report and reaction on Tuesday(but bearish weather taking a toll)
12-Jun-2018 11:01:13 AM
June 12 (Reuters) - The following tables summarize trade expectations for the U.S. Department of Agriculture's monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.
U.S. ending stocks and wheat production figures are quoted in billions of bushels. World ending stocks and production figures are quoted in millions of tonnes.
USDA 2017-18 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks
USDA June | Average of | Range of | USDA May | |
2017-18 | analysts' | analysts' | 2017-18 | |
end-stocks | estimates | estimates | end-stocks | |
estimates | estimates | |||
Wheat | 1.080__ | 1.079 | 1.045-1.100 | 1.070 |
Corn | 2.102__ | 2.166 | 2.132-2.192 | 2.182 |
Soybeans | 0.505__ | 0.522 | 0.473-0.550 | 0.530 |
USDA 2018-19 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks
USDA June | Average of | Range of | USDA May | |
2018-19 | analysts' | analysts' | 2018-19 | |
end-stocks | estimates | estimates | end-stocks | |
estimates | estimates | |||
Wheat | 0.946__ | 0.958 | 0.820-0.994 | 0.955 |
Corn | 1.577__ | 1.663 | 1.495-1.790 | 1.682 |
Soybeans | 0.385__ | 0.417 | 0.395-0.480 | 0.415 |
USDA 2017-18 world grain and soybean ending stocks
USDA June | Average of | Range of | USDA May | |
2017-18 | analysts' | analysts' | 2017-18 | |
end-stocks | estimates | estimates | end-stocks | |
estimates | estimates | |||
Wheat | 272.37__ | 269.99 | 267.00-271.00 | 270.46 |
Corn | 192.69__ | 193.39 | 190.00-195.10 | 194.85 |
Soybeans | _92.49__ | 91.35 | 88.30-93.10 | 92.16 |
USDA 2018-19 world grain and soybean ending stocks
USDA June | Average of | Range of | USDA May | |
2018-19 | analysts' | analysts' | 2018-19 | |
end-stocks | estimates | estimates | end-stocks | |
estimates | estimates | |||
Wheat | 266.16__ | 263.00 | 260.00-265.80 | 264.33 |
Corn | 154.69__ | 157.56 | 150.67-161.00 | 159.15 |
Soybeans | _87.02__ | 86.74 | 83.50-92.10 | 86.70 |
USDA 2018-19 U.S. wheat production
USDA June | Average of | Range of | USDA | |
2018-19 | analysts' | analysts' | May | |
estimate | estimates | estimates | estimates | |
All wheat | 1.827__ | 1.822 | 1.787-1.870 | 1.821 |
All winter | 1.198__ | 1.190 | 1.159-1.221 | 1.192 |
Hard red winter | 0.650__ | 0.645 | 0.608-0.670 | 0.647 |
Soft red winter | 0.316__ | 0.318 | 0.310-0.325 | 0.315 |
White winter | 0.232__ | 0.228 | 0.202-0.242 | 0.229 |
USDA 2017-18 South American corn and soy production
USDA June | Average of | Range of | USDA May | |
2017-18 | analysts' | analysts' | 2017-18 | |
estimate | estimates | estimates | estimate | |
ARGENTINA | ||||
Corn | 33.00___ | 32.53 | 31.00-33.00 | 33.00 |
Soybeans | 37.00___ | 37.89 | 36.00-39.00 | 39.00 |
BRAZIL | ||||
Corn | 85.00___ | 84.47 | 78.39-87.00 | 87.00 |
Soybeans | 119.00___ | 117.43 | 116.50-119.00 | 117.00 |
USDA world production
June USDA | May USDA | June USDA | May USDA | |
2017-18 | 2017-18 | 2018-19 | 2018-19 | |
estimate | estimate | estimate | estimate | |
Argentina wheat | _18.00 | 18.00 | _19.50 | 19.50 |
Australia wheat | _21.50 | 21.50 | _24.00 | 24.00 |
Canada wheat | _30.00 | 30.00 | _32.50 | 32.50 |
Russia wheat | _84.99 | 84.99 | _68.50 | 72.00 |
Argentina corn | _33.00 | 33.00 | _41.00 | 41.00 |
Brazil corn | _85.00 | 87.00 | _96.00 | 96.00 |
South Africa corn | _13.50 | 13.50 | _14.00 | 14.00 |
China corn | 215.89 | 215.89 | 225.00 | 225.00 |
Ukraine corn | _24.12 | 24.12 | _30.00 | 30.00 |
Argentina soy | _37.00 | 39.00 | _56.00 | 56.00 |
Brazil soy | 119.00 | 117.00 | 118.00 | 117.00 |
https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf
COARSE GRAINS:
"This month’s 2018/19 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced beginning stocks, lower feed and residual use, greater corn used for ethanol production, and lower ending stocks. Beginning stocks are down largely reflecting a 75-million-bushel increase in projected exports for 2017/18 to 2.300 billion bushels, which if realized would be the highest since 2007/08. Exports during the month of April were record high, besting the prior monthly shipment record set in November 1989. Export inspection data for the month of May implies continued robust global demand for U.S. corn, while old crop outstanding sales at this point in the marketing year are record high. Projected 2018/19 corn used for ethanol is raised 50 million bushels"
Global 2018/19 soybean ending stocks are increased 0.3 million tons to 87.0 million with higher stocks for Brazil partly offset by lower stocks for the United States and Argentina.
Stocks for Argentina are lowered mainly on a 2.0-million-ton reduction to the 2017/18 crop to 37 million
July meal went and filled it's gap. Friday is going to be interesting. Tariffs on or kick the can down the road for China.
Thanks bcb,
From weather:
By metmike - June 13, 2018, 1:11 p.m.
Just updated GFS.........other than the well known heat coming up in week 1, no dome in week 2 but tons of rain.......bearish.......but how much lower can we go on more bearish?
Forecast Hour: 384
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/namer/precip_ptot/gfs_namer_384_precip_ptot.gif