Grains Wednesday
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Started by metmike - June 13, 2018, 10:32 a.m.

Bullish USDA crop report and reaction on Tuesday(but bearish weather taking a toll)

TABLE-USDA June crop supply/demand report estimates - Reuters News

12-Jun-2018 11:01:13 AM 


June 12 (Reuters) - The following tables summarize trade expectations for the U.S. Department of Agriculture's monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

U.S. ending stocks and wheat production figures are quoted in billions of bushels. World ending stocks and production figures are quoted in millions of tonnes.

 

USDA 2017-18 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks


USDA June

Average of

Range of

USDA May


2017-18

analysts'

analysts'

2017-18


end-stocks

estimates

estimates

end-stocks


estimates



estimates






Wheat

1.080__

1.079

1.045-1.100

1.070

Corn

2.102__

2.166

2.132-2.192

2.182

Soybeans

0.505__

0.522

0.473-0.550

0.530

USDA 2018-19 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks


USDA June

Average of

Range of

USDA May


2018-19

analysts'

analysts'

2018-19


end-stocks

estimates

estimates

end-stocks


estimates



estimates






Wheat

0.946__

0.958

0.820-0.994

0.955

Corn

1.577__

1.663

1.495-1.790

1.682

Soybeans

0.385__

0.417

0.395-0.480

0.415

 

 

USDA 2017-18 world grain and soybean ending stocks


USDA June

Average of

Range of

USDA May


2017-18

analysts'

analysts'

2017-18


end-stocks

estimates

estimates

end-stocks


estimates



estimates






Wheat

272.37__

269.99

267.00-271.00

270.46

Corn

192.69__

193.39

190.00-195.10

194.85

Soybeans

_92.49__

91.35

88.30-93.10

92.16

 

USDA 2018-19 world grain and soybean ending stocks


USDA June

Average of

Range of

USDA May


2018-19

analysts'

analysts'

2018-19


end-stocks

estimates

estimates

end-stocks


estimates



estimates






Wheat

266.16__

263.00

260.00-265.80

264.33

Corn

154.69__

157.56

150.67-161.00

159.15

Soybeans

_87.02__

86.74

83.50-92.10

86.70

USDA 2018-19 U.S. wheat production


USDA June

Average of

Range of

USDA


2018-19

analysts'

analysts'

May


estimate

estimates

estimates

estimates






All wheat

1.827__

1.822

1.787-1.870

1.821

All winter

1.198__

1.190

1.159-1.221

1.192

Hard red winter

0.650__

0.645

0.608-0.670

0.647

Soft red winter

0.316__

0.318

0.310-0.325

0.315

White winter

0.232__

0.228

0.202-0.242

0.229

USDA 2017-18 South American corn and soy production


USDA June

Average of

Range of

USDA May


2017-18

analysts'

analysts'

2017-18


estimate

estimates

estimates

estimate






ARGENTINA




Corn

33.00___

32.53

31.00-33.00

33.00

Soybeans

37.00___

37.89

36.00-39.00

39.00

BRAZIL




Corn

85.00___

84.47

78.39-87.00

87.00

Soybeans

119.00___

117.43

116.50-119.00

117.00

 

USDA world production


June USDA

May USDA

June USDA

May USDA


2017-18

2017-18

2018-19

2018-19


estimate

estimate

estimate

estimate






Argentina wheat

_18.00

18.00

_19.50

19.50

Australia wheat

_21.50

21.50

_24.00

24.00

Canada wheat

_30.00

30.00

_32.50

32.50

Russia wheat

_84.99

84.99

_68.50

72.00

Argentina corn

_33.00

33.00

_41.00

41.00

Brazil corn

_85.00

87.00

_96.00

96.00

South Africa corn

_13.50

13.50

_14.00

14.00

China corn

215.89

215.89

225.00

225.00

Ukraine corn

_24.12

24.12

_30.00

30.00

Argentina soy

_37.00

39.00

_56.00

56.00

Brazil soy

119.00

117.00

118.00

117.00

Comments
By metmike - June 13, 2018, 10:33 a.m.
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https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf

COARSE GRAINS:

  "This month’s 2018/19 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced beginning stocks, lower feed and residual use, greater corn used for ethanol production, and lower ending stocks.  Beginning stocks are down largely reflecting a 75-million-bushel increase in projected exports for 2017/18 to 2.300 billion bushels, which if realized would be the highest since 2007/08.  Exports during the month of April were record high, besting the prior monthly shipment record set in November 1989.  Export inspection data for the month of May implies continued robust global demand for U.S. corn, while old crop outstanding sales at this point in the marketing year are record high.  Projected 2018/19 corn used for ethanol is raised 50 million bushels"

Global 2018/19 soybean ending stocks are increased 0.3 million tons to 87.0 million with higher stocks for Brazil partly offset by lower stocks for the United States and Argentina.  

Stocks for Argentina are lowered mainly on a 2.0-million-ton reduction to the 2017/18 crop to 37 million

By bcb - June 13, 2018, 11:10 a.m.
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July meal went and filled it's gap. Friday is going to be interesting. Tariffs on or kick the can down the road for China.

By metmike - June 13, 2018, 1:14 p.m.
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Thanks bcb,

From weather:

                By metmike - June 13, 2018, 1:11 p.m.            

             

                            

Just updated GFS.........other than the well known heat coming up in week 1, no dome in week  2 but tons of rain.......bearish.......but how much lower can we go on more bearish?

Forecast Hour:  384
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/namer/precip_ptot/gfs_namer_384_precip_ptot.gif

   

gfs_namer_384_precip_ptot.gif