Cycle Low in Beans?
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Started by tjc - June 12, 2018, 10:56 a.m.

  It appears beans may have, or soon will by Wednesday, complete a Daily and Weekly low.

  The daily low comes at the end of its 22-36 day band, yesterday being the 35th day.

  The weekly also comes at the end of its normal 14-22 week band, this week being 22.

  Daily 14 RSI of 29 further suggests a probe of the buy side.

  The daily and continuous charts shows a series of lower highs and lows after the early peak in March.  Possible good news to producers is that the current low of 953 is higher than the prior January low of 937.

  The market appears to have dialed in near perfect growing conditions.  Nevertheless, beans are due for a 3-5 week rally.  I am not friendly new seasonal highs, so therefore watch retracement levels for taking profits on any long position.

  Buy a call?


By metmike - June 12, 2018, 11:07 a.m.
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                By cfdr - June 9, 2018, 12:43 p.m.            


Here's a chart of July meal.  Just above 350 looks like good support.  Timing wise, eight weeks from the last high should provide a good window - so sometime the last week of June - into the fourth of July, of course.

Just a guess, if anyone is looking for a possible resumption of the bull market.


  By bcb - June 9, 2018, 12:47 p.m.            

200 day moving avg 349 which would also if the gap. Also means beans are going lower right now.

By metmike - June 12, 2018, 11:15 a.m.
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Soybeans, wider perspective:

Soybeans 3 months below


Soybeans 1 year chart below   


Soybeans 5 years below

Soybeans 10 years-Wow, look at that high from the drought of 2012...and demand

By metmike - June 12, 2018, 11:27 a.m.
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You will be right if the weather keeps looking hotter and drier.

We've taken out rains in week 1(mainly because they have already fallen and they were bountiful)

but we can't keep having wet week 2 outlooks and expect beans to go higher.........even if its very warm.

SX has dropped 85c from the highs just over 2 weeks ago. Wow. Markets sure over react today, and get to places that would take a month in the old less than half that time. 

By tjc - June 12, 2018, 12:13 p.m.
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  Long July 970 call bought prior to report.  Expires June 22

By vrbuck - June 12, 2018, 12:54 p.m.
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I had Friday as the cycle low according to the wheel. Monday works.

By metmike - June 12, 2018, 1:02 p.m.
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Great to see you got in to the forum vrbuck!

Thanks for posting.  Nobody can pick the exact day of lows and highs. 

Sure looks like the lows are in short term, especially now that the weather is getting drier and the market has traded and dialed in some great weather for the past 2 weeks.

Yesterday looks like a selling exhaustion/washout.

                By metmike - June 11, 2018, 1:08 p.m.            


"We are having enough rains already in the rain gauges that are dialed into the price with future rains going to be less and less here, that I think we could get some support pretty soon.

SX has now dropped over 80c and CZ almost 40c.

The latest forecasts "may" start trending drier. If that happens, we can start going back up.

However, this is not the time of year to be long unless the market feels there is a potential threat to the crop.

Forecasts trending drier, if that continued would qualify as the start of a threat. 

Don't take this as a suggestion to buy now but do follow my updates as I will try to objectively report changes in the weather(which effects the markets) in timely fashion."

By metmike - June 13, 2018, 11:31 a.m.
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More rain to the forecast and now SX have dropped to new lows for the move and $1 from their highs just over 2 wees ago. 

Corn is holding because the USDA report was incredibly bullish. Maybe we are getting some CZ/SX type spreading.