Grains Tuesday
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Started by metmike - June 12, 2018, 9:44 a.m.

Crop condition about as I expected.

https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog2418.txt

Corn -1% to 77% GD/EX

Beans -1% to 74% GD/EX

Still very high ratings.

Cotton GD/EX stayed the same but P/VP increased 5%.........TX/OK

Spring Wheat stlll 70% GD/EX

Comments
By metmike - June 12, 2018, 9:46 a.m.
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USDA report out at 11 am today. Could be bullish?

Seems likely for corn but historically, our USDA friends have thrown us more surprises than............ Donald Trump (-:

By metmike - June 12, 2018, 12:51 p.m.
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Had this in the wrong place, sorry about that.

                By metmike - June 12, 2018, 12:11 p.m.            

            

Initial reaction to the USDA report was solidly bullish, especially for wheat and corn. 

Beans struggling to hold their spike high gains but holding.  Corn now making new highs as well as wheat.


We need a dome on the next GFS to provide some bullish ammo to go with the report.

By metmike - June 12, 2018, 1:41 p.m.
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By metmike - June 12, 2018, 1:50 p.m.
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https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf

COARSE GRAINS:

  "This month’s 2018/19 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced beginning stocks, lower feed and residual use, greater corn used for ethanol production, and lower ending stocks.  Beginning stocks are down largely reflecting a 75-million-bushel increase in projected exports for 2017/18 to 2.300 billion bushels, which if realized would be the highest since 2007/08.  Exports during the month of April were record high, besting the prior monthly shipment record set in November 1989.  Export inspection data for the month of May implies continued robust global demand for U.S. corn, while old crop outstanding sales at this point in the marketing year are record high.  Projected 2018/19 corn used for ethanol is raised 50 million bushels"

Global 2018/19 soybean ending stocks are increased 0.3 million tons to 87.0 million with higher stocks for Brazil partly offset by lower stocks for the United States and Argentina.  

Stocks for Argentina are lowered mainly on a 2.0-million-ton reduction to the 2017/18 crop to 37 million

By silverspiker - June 12, 2018, 1:59 p.m.
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... had to double down day trade long the corn just to make sure I got all of the pieces of this rally to come... and was 


in complete serenity at all times doing so...


Corn has a serious, fundamental story... we do not need a calamity weather year like 83, 88 etc to make this market...


SPIKE


By metmike - June 12, 2018, 2:07 p.m.
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Congrats silverspiker,

Looks like you are right on top of this!

By silverspiker - June 12, 2018, 2:20 p.m.
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I am currently residing next to Cargill's largest wet corn milling plant, Cargill's largest ethanol plant , ADM's ethanol 

plant, and many other processors of corn AND also the, Trump card which is the only highway route to the 

Mississippi for all of  EC,SE & S. central IOWA grain barges.

    ....  the corn, grain trucks have been a whirrin' 24/7 for many, many months and emptying all of Old Crop out of the  

near empty bins...

By metmike - June 12, 2018, 2:30 p.m.
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Sounds bullish to me, spike. Anybody that drinks 2 gallons of water a day must not be letting impurities interfere with their thought processes (-:

By silverspiker - June 12, 2018, 2:40 p.m.
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where is I.P.Daily when you need him...   

... it really is the Tai Chi Yoga In The Pool that has been centering  the mind as of lately.

By metmike - June 12, 2018, 6:01 p.m.
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TABLE-USDA June crop supply/demand report estimates - Reuters News

12-Jun-2018 11:01:13 AM 


June 12 (Reuters) - The following tables summarize trade expectations for the U.S. Department of Agriculture's monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

U.S. ending stocks and wheat production figures are quoted in billions of bushels. World ending stocks and production figures are quoted in millions of tonnes.

 

USDA 2017-18 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks


USDA June

Average of

Range of

USDA May


2017-18

analysts'

analysts'

2017-18


end-stocks

estimates

estimates

end-stocks


estimates



estimates






Wheat

1.080__

1.079

1.045-1.100

1.070

Corn

2.102__

2.166

2.132-2.192

2.182

Soybeans

0.505__

0.522

0.473-0.550

0.530

USDA 2018-19 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks


USDA June

Average of

Range of

USDA May


2018-19

analysts'

analysts'

2018-19


end-stocks

estimates

estimates

end-stocks


estimates



estimates






Wheat

0.946__

0.958

0.820-0.994

0.955

Corn

1.577__

1.663

1.495-1.790

1.682

Soybeans

0.385__

0.417

0.395-0.480

0.415

 

 

USDA 2017-18 world grain and soybean ending stocks


USDA June

Average of

Range of

USDA May


2017-18

analysts'

analysts'

2017-18


end-stocks

estimates

estimates

end-stocks


estimates



estimates






Wheat

272.37__

269.99

267.00-271.00

270.46

Corn

192.69__

193.39

190.00-195.10

194.85

Soybeans

_92.49__

91.35

88.30-93.10

92.16

 

USDA 2018-19 world grain and soybean ending stocks


USDA June

Average of

Range of

USDA May


2018-19

analysts'

analysts'

2018-19


end-stocks

estimates

estimates

end-stocks


estimates



estimates






Wheat

266.16__

263.00

260.00-265.80

264.33

Corn

154.69__

157.56

150.67-161.00

159.15

Soybeans

_87.02__

86.74

83.50-92.10

86.70

USDA 2018-19 U.S. wheat production


USDA June

Average of

Range of

USDA


2018-19

analysts'

analysts'

May


estimate

estimates

estimates

estimates






All wheat

1.827__

1.822

1.787-1.870

1.821

All winter

1.198__

1.190

1.159-1.221

1.192

Hard red winter

0.650__

0.645

0.608-0.670

0.647

Soft red winter

0.316__

0.318

0.310-0.325

0.315

White winter

0.232__

0.228

0.202-0.242

0.229

USDA 2017-18 South American corn and soy production


USDA June

Average of

Range of

USDA May


2017-18

analysts'

analysts'

2017-18


estimate

estimates

estimates

estimate






ARGENTINA




Corn

33.00___

32.53

31.00-33.00

33.00

Soybeans

37.00___

37.89

36.00-39.00

39.00

BRAZIL




Corn

85.00___

84.47

78.39-87.00

87.00

Soybeans

119.00___

117.43

116.50-119.00

117.00

 

USDA world production


June USDA

May USDA

June USDA

May USDA


2017-18

2017-18

2018-19

2018-19


estimate

estimate

estimate

estimate






Argentina wheat

_18.00

18.00

_19.50

19.50

Australia wheat

_21.50

21.50

_24.00

24.00

Canada wheat

_30.00

30.00

_32.50

32.50

Russia wheat

_84.99

84.99

_68.50

72.00

Argentina corn

_33.00

33.00

_41.00

41.00

Brazil corn

_85.00

87.00

_96.00

96.00

South Africa corn

_13.50

13.50

_14.00

14.00

China corn

215.89

215.89

225.00

225.00

Ukraine corn

_24.12

24.12

_30.00

30.00

Argentina soy

_37.00

39.00

_56.00

56.00

Brazil soy

119.00

117.00

118.00

117.00