Weather Tuesday
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Started by metmike - June 12, 2018, 9:14 a.m.

National Radar Loop: Storms in IL/IN and eastern part of S.Plain

https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/index_loop.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

                    

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By metmike - June 12, 2018, 9:18 a.m.
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Rains the past 24 hours........eroding driest areas even more!

          

                    

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By metmike - June 12, 2018, 9:20 a.m.
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A week ago these were the dry spots. The map below is rain over the previous 4 weeks compared to average. I'll see if there isn't an updated map soon.

Map for: June 3, 2018 (Week 22)

                   

By metmike - June 12, 2018, 10:04 a.m.
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By metmike - June 12, 2018, 10:05 a.m.
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Severe Storm Potential the next few days:

                                            

Current Day 1 Outlook
        0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Kerr
Issued: 10/0107Z
Valid: 10/0100Z - 10/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Enhanced Risk        
      
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Bunting
Issued: 09/1728Z
Valid: 10/1200Z - 11/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Slight Risk        
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          1730 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Dial
Issued: 09/0726Z
Valid: 11/1200Z - 12/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Slight Risk
      
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
By metmike - June 12, 2018, 10:06 a.m.
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Areas that could have excessive rains the next  3 days, mainly today.

Excessive Rainfall Forecasts

 


Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 15Z 06/11/18 - 12Z 06/12/18

 

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  


  Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts 
Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 06/12/18 - 12Z 06/13/18

 

Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format 

 

Current Day 3 ForecastCurrent Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
By metmike - June 12, 2018, 10:10 a.m.
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A shot of intense heat for a several days late this week/weekend, especially swest belt looking to last longer than it did yesterday. Day 5 highs below...........lots of U-90's!

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gif

                                    


            

                

By metmike - June 12, 2018, 10:15 a.m.
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CFS weeks 3-4. Mostly for entertainment purposes but better than flipping a coin.

Heat!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif




Dry, southeast half of Cornbelt, wet northwest....ring of fire around heat ridge?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAprec.gif

By metmike - June 12, 2018, 10:31 a.m.
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The 7 day temps from last week thru Friday are below(used for the next EIA reporting period this Thursday). Northeast was cool..........rest of the country very warm to hot.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20180608.7day.mean.F.gif

By metmike - June 12, 2018, 11:34 a.m.
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mcfarm,

Did you ever tell us how much rain you got?


PLL got many inches. Whats your latest total?

Cutworm I thought had just .4 as of Sunday.

We just had our 5th rain in 4 days, totaling 3.5".

By metmike - June 12, 2018, 11:50 a.m.
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Like yesterday, the individual members of the Canadian ensembles have some extremely divergent solutions at the end of week 2. Ranging from a huge dome to very cool/upper level trough in the same places.

The ensemble average at the top, actually does not represent many members because the extremes average out to something in the middle that very few have.

So the solutions are in 2 different camps. One is bullish for the grains and especially ng, the other bearish.


384h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jun 28, 2018 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast


By metmike - June 12, 2018, 11:54 a.m.
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The GFS(US model) ensembles had more members with the big dome solution last night than before(when it was cooler). Doesn't mean that will happen............there is great uncertainty on the pattern in week 2........more than usual.










f00f12f24f36f48f60f72f84f96f108f120f132f144f156f168f180f192f204f216f228f240f252f264f276f288f300f312f324f336f348f360f372f384

By metmike - June 12, 2018, 12:11 p.m.
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Initial reaction to the USDA report was solidly bullish, especially for wheat and corn. 

Beans struggling to hold their spike high gains but holding.  Corn now making new highs as well as wheat.


We need a dome on the next GFS to provide some bullish ammo to go with the report.

By pll - June 12, 2018, 12:52 p.m.
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Our fields ranged from 4 - 8.5 inches 

By Jim_M - June 12, 2018, 1:02 p.m.
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I mentioned before that we got quite a bit of rain over the weekend.  Just speaking past tense here, but it is amazing how fast corn responds to some moisture.  I pass a corn field to and from work.  I think it has jumped a foot in just a day or two.  An amazing plant.  

By metmike - June 12, 2018, 1:15 p.m.
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Holy Cow!

Thats 2 months worth of rain in some places.

Be nice if it didn't all come at once

By metmike - June 12, 2018, 1:17 p.m.
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Latest 12z GFS a bit more impressive with the week 2 heat ridge/dome 

         

    

      gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht
      gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht
      gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick
      gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht
      gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht_s.gif
By metmike - June 12, 2018, 1:21 p.m.
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Rains kind of skinny in the center compared to some runs in recent weeks.........that were too wet.

On rains from recent days, however, the GFS was NOT too wet. 

Would not exactly call the 2 week rain map below bullish though. 


  

Forecast Hour:  384
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/precip_ptot/gfs_namer_384_precip_ptot.gif

   

gfs_namer_384_precip_ptot.gif

By metmike - June 12, 2018, 6:19 p.m.
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NWS extended..............still very warm. Drier trend in the north during week 2?  We'll have to wait to see on that.

6 to 10 Day Outlooks
Valid: June 18 to 22, 2018
Updated: 12 Jun 2018

C

Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - June 12, 2018, 6:22 p.m.
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3-7 day period weather risks.

Heavy rains in parts of the Cornbelt/much of the Upper Midwest(for cliff) and Plains...........heat for pj in Seattle. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png

By metmike - June 12, 2018, 7:18 p.m.
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The just updated 18Z GFS is pretty bearish for later in week 2........the period that is most in doubt. Some solutions build a dome in. NOT this one. Instead cool northwest flow.

Maps below:


 Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/precip_ptot/gfs_namer_384_precip_ptot.gif gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_htgfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht_s.gif gfs_namer_360_500_vort_htgfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht_s.gif gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thickgfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick_s.gif gfs_namer_360_850_temp_htgfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht_s.gif


2 week rain totals