INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - March 27, 2020, 7:41 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Friday, March 27, 2020 



8:30 AM ET. February Personal Income & Outlays



                       Personal Income, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.6%)



                       Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)



                       PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)



                       PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.7%)



                       PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.1%)



                       PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (expected +1.7%; previous +1.6%)



10:00 AM ET. March University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final



                       End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 89.0; previous 101.0)



                       End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 92.1)



                       12-Month Inflation Forecast  (previous 2.4%)



                       5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.3%)



                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 114.8)



10:00 AM ET. February Regional & State Employment & Unemployment



  N/A              Shadow Open Market Committee Spring Meeting



Monday, March 30, 2020 



10:00 AM ET. February Pending Home Sales Index



                       Pending Home Sales (previous 108.8)



                       Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (previous +5.2%)



                       Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous +5.7%)



10:30 AM ET. March Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey



                       Business Activity (previous 1.2)



                       Mfg Production Idx (previous 16.4)



The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"



The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was lower in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of this week's record setting rebound. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7797.48 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off February's high the January-2019 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 6616.75 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7797.48. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 8208.09. First support is the January-2019 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 6616.75. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 6321.77.  



The June S&P 500 was lower in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2638.36 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 2028.01 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2638.36. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 2780.02. First support is Monday's low crossing at 2174.90. Second support is monthly support crossing at 2028.01. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at 182-21 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 167-20 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 182-21. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 191-22. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 167-20. Second support is February's low crossing at 159-18.  



June T-notes were higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, March's high crossing at 140.240 is the next upside target. If June renews the decline off March's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 133.101 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 138.180. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 140.240. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 133.101. Second support is February's low crossing at 130.025.   



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



May crude oil was lower in overnight trading as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, the October-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 17.12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.05 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 28.49. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.05. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 20.06. Second support is the October-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 17.12.



May heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.91 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes this year's decline, the January 2016 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 84.87 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 111.84. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.91. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 93.43. Second support is weekly support crossing at 84.87.   



May unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.43 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 32.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 76.12. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.43. First support is Monday's low crossing at 46.05. Second support is monthly support crossing at 32.40. 



May Henry natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 1.530 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.789 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.789. Second resistance is 50-day moving average crossing at 1.881. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.587. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.530.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off Monday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 98.37 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 101.12 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 103.96. Second resistance is the 75% retracement of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 108.73. First support is the 50% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 99.25. Second support is the 62% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 98.13. 



The June Euro was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.04 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 109.37 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.04. Second resistance is the March 16th high crossing at 112.78. First support is Monday's low crossing at 106.71. Second support is weekly support crossing at 106.54.     



The June British Pound was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2363 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes this month's decline, downside targets are unknown. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2363. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 1.2505. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.1897. Second resistance is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.1438.



The June Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it extends the rally off Monday's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0491 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0347 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0491. Second resistance is the March 16th high crossing at 1.0698. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.0138. Second support is monthly support crossing at 0.9987.



The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the 20-day moving average crossing at 71.84 is the next upside target.If June resumes the decline off December's high, the January-2016 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 68.09 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 71.84. Second resistance is the March 16th high crossing at 72.85. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 68.20. Second support is the January-2016 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 68.09.  



The June Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0933 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends this month's decline, February's low crossing at 0.0897 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0933. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 0.0992. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 0.0900. Second support is February's low crossing at 0.0897.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Friday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a double top with March's high might have been posted with Wednesday's high. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $1564.00 would confirm that a double top has been posted. If April extends the aforementioned rally, March's high crossing at $1704.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at $1704.30. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $1809.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1564.00. Second support is March's low crossing at $1450.90.



May silver was slightly higher in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving averagecrossing at $15.055 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews this year's decline, the October 2008 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.400 is the next downside target. First resistance is Thursday's highcrossing at $14.980. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.055. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $13.405. Second support is March's low crossing at $11.640. 



May copper was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $236.87 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes this year's decline, the January-2016 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $193.55 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $220.36. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $236.87. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $197.25 Second support is the January-2016 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $193.55.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



May corn was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.60 3/4 would confirm that a low has been posted. If May renews the decline off January's high, monthly support crossing at $3.29 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $3.56 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.60 3/4. First support is March's low crossing at $3.32. Second support is monthly support crossing at $3.29 3/4.    



May wheat was higher overnight as it remains poised to extend the rally off March's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned rally, January's high crossing at $5.90 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.29 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $5.83 1/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.90 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.45. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.29 1/2.

   

May Kansas City Wheat closed own $0.13 3/4-cents at $4.87 1/4.

 

May Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at $5.11 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.55 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $5.05 3/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.11 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.70 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.55 1/4.   



May Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.36 would open the door for a possible test of February's high crossing at $5.50 3/4. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.22 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.36. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $5.50 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.22 1/4. Second support is March's low crossing at $5.03.  



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



May soybeans were higher overnight as they extend the rally off March's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.90 3/4 would open the door for a possible test of March's high crossing at $9.12 1/2. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.60 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.90 3/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $9.12 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.60. Second support is March's low crossing at $8.21.    



May soybean meal was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $310.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May resumes the rally off February's low, last-June's high crossing at 336.60 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $336.30. Second resistance is last-June's high crossing at 336.60. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $317.10. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $310.70.     



May soybean oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.02 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off January's high, monthly support crossing at 21.54 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.02. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 28.97. First support is March's low crossing at 24.68. Second support is monthly support crossing at 21.54.    



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



April hogs closed down $2.95 at $62.90. 



April hogs closed sharply lower on Thursday and filled Tuesday's gap crossing at $64.58. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are poised to turn neutral to bearish with additional weakness. If April extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at $68.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $60.94 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at $68.25. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $71.54. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $62.18. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $60.94.   



April cattle closed down $3.00 at $105.45. 



April cattle closed limit down on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at $112.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $99.13 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at $112.65. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $113.29. First support is the 20-day crossing at $102.81. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $99.13.  

 

May Feeder cattle closed down $3.67-cents at $125.42. 



May Feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at $134.97 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $118.28 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $134.97. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $138.20. First support the 10-day moving average crossing at $118.28. Second support is March's low crossing at $107.47.       



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



May coffee closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 13.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.02 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. 



May cocoa closed slightly lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the October-2018 low crossing at 21.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.45 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.              



May sugar closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the March 12th gap crossing at 12.23 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. If May extends the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 9.91 is the next downside target.        



May cotton closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, monthly support crossing at 48.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.72 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.   

Comments
By metmike - March 27, 2020, 12:37 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks much tallpine!


Probably alot of traders today are thinking about recent Sunday Evening openings.

Earlier this month, there were some massive gaps lower on Sunday Evenings that were followed by plunges. 

2 days is alot of time for the news to accumulate in one direction in this environment and with emotions/fear being unprecedented, extreme price reactions are happening.


But we've dialed in an enormous amount of really, really bad news. The really, really bad news about unemployment numbers this week resulted in a higher stock market.


It's just 1 day and things will change from day to day but the market was saying.."we knew that already last week, which is why we dropped so much then, so what?? tell me something that I didn't know"