Never thought I'd see the DOW get below 20K
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Started by TimNew - March 26, 2020, 6:41 a.m.

Only stayed there a couple days,  but that was the closest I've come to losing faith in this market, and I'll bet a lot of people threw in the towel at that point.    Will we see sub 20k again?  I don't know,  but would not be surprised.   The stimulus will help, at least temporarily.  I remember thinking a few weeks back that I should buy some OOM e-mini puts,  not so much a trade as a hedge,  but what a trade that would have been.  Wish I had gone with my gut.  Should I Still?   I probably won't. Probably time to buy OOM Calls. I don't have the nerve to write options anymore <G>.

Anyway,  I think a lot of people are waiting for the Jobless Claims to be reported later this morning at 8:30 eastern.  No one expects good numbers..  The question is how bad are they?  If not too bad,  say +100k,  stocks won't have much of a reaction IMO.  (last week was +70k BTW).  Much over 100k,  +200K for example,  and I think we'll be giving back some of what we made in the last couple days.  

I'll post the #'s as soon as I can after 830, tho I am sure at least a few of you are watching as closely as I.  


Edit:  My numbers above are poorly thought out and low ball.  Forecasts are for new claims to be in the millions.   We'll see.


Comments
By bear - March 27, 2020, 1:27 a.m.
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at the top, by some measures, the market was more grossly overpriced than at any other time in history.  so i fully expected to see the dow go back down to the 15k , area. 

that info comes from hussman , out of cinci ...

i think it was the chart of a price to revenue ratio.  

by my calculation, long term average value on the dow is down around 13 or 14 k ... that is if we simply went to a long term average p/e , or price to book, etc.  

if we went to a low (like we had in 1982, or 1932) it would be around dow  8k or 9k ...

By rockitck - March 29, 2020, 3:22 a.m.
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I bough some S&P puts about 2-3 months ago. Cashed in two weeks ago for a nice profit. I think we gonna see the market go lower. Heck look at 2009, DOW was just above 5000. I think the Trump rally is fake. Feds keep pumpin billions into the stock market every day. Bond Yield Curve is inverted most day. 

By metmike - March 29, 2020, 12:18 p.m.
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Congrats rockitck on your profits!

Good to read you here.

You could be right.  It will mostly depend on what happens with COVID-19 which is very uncertain.


If it continued to get worse for the next 2 months for instance(which seems unlikely but could happen) then  you will be right.

Regardless, the uncertainty is unprecedented. Keep posting your thoughts.

By rockitck - March 29, 2020, 12:52 p.m.
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Thanks metmike. I use to go to the forum a lot when Alex was running it and prolly used the name davidm. I will try to get over here more often in the future!

By metmike - March 29, 2020, 1:15 p.m.
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I remember you!


Didn't we have some discussions about Western Pine Beetles and the trees out there being killed?



Great to have you back!