Only stayed there a couple days, but that was the closest I've come to losing faith in this market, and I'll bet a lot of people threw in the towel at that point. Will we see sub 20k again? I don't know, but would not be surprised. The stimulus will help, at least temporarily. I remember thinking a few weeks back that I should buy some OOM e-mini puts, not so much a trade as a hedge, but what a trade that would have been. Wish I had gone with my gut. Should I Still? I probably won't. Probably time to buy OOM Calls. I don't have the nerve to write options anymore <G>.
Anyway, I think a lot of people are waiting for the Jobless Claims to be reported later this morning at 8:30 eastern. No one expects good numbers.. The question is how bad are they? If not too bad, say +100k, stocks won't have much of a reaction IMO. (last week was +70k BTW). Much over 100k, +200K for example, and I think we'll be giving back some of what we made in the last couple days.
I'll post the #'s as soon as I can after 830, tho I am sure at least a few of you are watching as closely as I.
Edit: My numbers above are poorly thought out and low ball. Forecasts are for new claims to be in the millions. We'll see.
at the top, by some measures, the market was more grossly overpriced than at any other time in history. so i fully expected to see the dow go back down to the 15k , area.
that info comes from hussman , out of cinci ...
i think it was the chart of a price to revenue ratio.
by my calculation, long term average value on the dow is down around 13 or 14 k ... that is if we simply went to a long term average p/e , or price to book, etc.
if we went to a low (like we had in 1982, or 1932) it would be around dow 8k or 9k ...
I bough some S&P puts about 2-3 months ago. Cashed in two weeks ago for a nice profit. I think we gonna see the market go lower. Heck look at 2009, DOW was just above 5000. I think the Trump rally is fake. Feds keep pumpin billions into the stock market every day. Bond Yield Curve is inverted most day.
Congrats rockitck on your profits!
Good to read you here.
You could be right. It will mostly depend on what happens with COVID-19 which is very uncertain.
If it continued to get worse for the next 2 months for instance(which seems unlikely but could happen) then you will be right.
Regardless, the uncertainty is unprecedented. Keep posting your thoughts.
Thanks metmike. I use to go to the forum a lot when Alex was running it and prolly used the name davidm. I will try to get over here more often in the future!
I remember you!
Didn't we have some discussions about Western Pine Beetles and the trees out there being killed?
Great to have you back!