Extended forecasts
3 responses | 0 likes
Started by metmike - June 10, 2018, 2 p.m.

A sneak preview of the NWS week 2 forecast. There are numerous guidance products and they all have the same general trend(cooler) I will show a couple here that don't perfectly capture the anamolies of them all put together.

You should assume that the Midwest will be  cooler than in recent week 2 forecasts.

The GFS ensembles are extremely cool......likely too cool, especially using the guidance tool(Klein) below but I will show it so that you can see what represents the extreme end of cool possibilities for week 2:


Precip continues to be ABOVE, except in the northern tier that may be dominated by cool and dry Canadian high pressure systems:


By metmike - June 10, 2018, 2:08 p.m.
Like Reply

CFS week 3 and 4 forecast brings the heat ridge back from the S.Plains to the Ohio Valley and the North East.

Also along the West Coast..................and we all know that a week 3-4 forecast can be taken to the bank..........yeah, bankRUPT. 

Am wondering if I should continue with weather at this time frame............oh well, it can be entertaining.

Temps below.


Rains dry up under the heat ridge S.Plains to Ohio Valley, ok elsewhere.


By metmike - June 10, 2018, 3:25 p.m.
Like Reply

And the automated NWS forecast product for Sunday came out much warmer for the week 2 period than what was shown in the guidance above/earlier. The pattern for that period is uncertain enough so that just about anything is possible:


8 to 14 Day Outlooks
Valid: June 18 to 24, 2018
Updated: 10 Jun 2018
Click below for information about how to read 8-14 day outlook maps
 Temperature        Precipitation
Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


By metmike - June 10, 2018, 3:37 p.m.
Like Reply

The Canadian model ensembles have anything from a deep trough to a heat ridge in some of the same places.

My pick?

I don't know.

If you were paying me, that would be the wrong answer.......but my week 2 forecast confidence is extraordinarily low. 

324h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jun 24, 2018 00UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast