Hi Larry,

With the wild day and numerous different threads,  this one of yours got buried and I missed it until now.

Agree that we were NOT trading weather today in natural gas.

The warmer GFS/ENS did cause a brief drop but we bounced back and closed very strong and even gapped higher on the Monday evening open, which is extraordinarily rare for this on a non Sunday Night open.

OK, I see that we actually hit 1.765 just before 1:30pm and the open and low so far this evening has been 1.763, so no gap.

After the close Monday:

Like Crude and Stocks, Natural Gas Futures Rally to Open Week; Cash Soft on Mild Temps

     5:42 PM    

Energy and stock markets steadied themselves Monday after last week’s swoon over Covid-19 fears, and natural gas futures followed the broader trend, rebounding decisively despite a lack of weather-driven demand in the forecast. The April Nymex contract added 7.2 cents to settle at $1.756/MMBtu, while May picked up 6.5 cents to $1.797.

More anecdotal than anything, but experience tells me that seasonals will over rule what you think should happen. And seasonally, NG is up this time of year.  

I wouldn't short NG here with your money.  It's historically cheap, it's still well within 5 year parameters and traders are looking down the road and filling up storage.  If traders are looking past coronavirus (which they should be), there is positivity buying as well.  You can't overlook the extremely large short holdings either.  When those positions look to start covering, the upswing could be significant.

With the unseasonably warm weather, you can't discount that the warmth goes on into the summer as well.  

Agree with you Jim. March is one of the strongest months for ng prices historically and prices are the lowest in 2 decades.

But then...............we have the coronavirus scare.

Temps have been looking very mild for over a week but thats likely all dialed in and temperatures in March no longer have the potential to change HDD's and demand like they did back in January. 

Terrific Tuesday to you! Here's your weather:  https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/48431/

While we aren't officially out of winter yet. But given the way the winter climate has been, I really don't see much in the way of severe winter weather having an affect. Even with the mild winter, lower rig count, and injections that are close to meeting demand, NG is still in the basement. Even with the rise in exports of NG.

I'm not going to wait too much longer to be positioning myself in the market. The funds are going to be dropping their shorts soon. If it drops back down to 1.75 area again, I'm going to buy. I don't think it will go much lower, and the future months are much higher. A sign of the times, as it were. Seasonals will prevail.

Still holding my may/july spread. It's in the profit zone. And as spring warms up, it will be even better. 

Thanks Mark!

Very mild/bearish weather is having little affect on ng prices.  If it were very cold, we would be going up nicely.

Wonderful Wednesday!  Here's your weather: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/48483/

NGI From early Wed:

Weather, Balance Data Mostly Unchanged as Natural Gas Futures Steady

       8:53 AM

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending February 28, 2020   |  Released: March 5, 2020 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: March 12, 2020 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 -109 BCF Neutral                                                                                 

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,091 Bcf as of Friday, February 28, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net decrease of 109 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 680 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 176 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,915 Bcf. At 2,091 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2015 through 2019. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

From Natural Gas Intelligence late morning: No Surprises from EIA as Natural Gas Storage Report Inspires Futures Selling

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

Temperatures for that 7 day period, ending last Friday.  Very mild North vs average......cool in the South.

This is quite different from most of the year, prior to that period when an upper level ridge dominated the Southeast and caused long lived, extremely warm anomalies in the South and points northward at times. 

Thanks for another Thursday! Here's your weather: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/48526/

NGI after the close Thursday:

Against Backdrop of Coronavirus Fears, Natural Gas Futures Retreat

From Natural Gas Intelligence Friday am:

Warm March Pattern ‘Refuses to Change’ as Natural Gas Futures Called Lower

Splendid Sunday!

Here's your weather(pattern change to colder):  https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/48628/

NGJ gapped lower on the open at 1.678 with the high a second after that of 1.680.

This is the top of the gap. The bottom of the gap, Friday's low is 1.705 which was made at 1:30pm at the regular session close.

The low so far tonight has been 1.939 which is 3 ticks lower than the life of contract lows set on Feb. 28th, which is the same day the stock markets and crude made their previous lows............they are all trading in tandem and not much else matters.

All have been making new lows for this move this evening. 

The weather pattern could turn much colder later in March but right now, the market doesn't care. It's actually very late in the heating season for cold weather to make much difference anyway.

Seasonals/price history has provided us with higher prices over 90% of the time during this period into May. 

This is going to be an outlier/exception as we are in uncharted trading waters for ng and the liquid energies(that also have strong positive seasonals in the early Spring).

The Dow futures are down 1,200 right now. Unless there is a recovery, ng will have a hard time attracting aggressive buying. 

OK, NGJ just traded to new lows and hit some sell stops. 

Down to 1.633 for NEW, new lows.

After the gap lower last night and drop to contract lows, ng spiked to moderately higher prices.........filling the gap.

If this were any other environment,. a higher close today would be a very powerful reversal signal after the gap and crap/exhaustion signature that ran out of steam at new contract lows.

However, when this happened on the Feb 28th, it looked like the lows were in.

Regardless, prices are really cheap, lowest for this time of year in 2 decades,  seasonals are the strongest of the year/this is almost always the time frame for lows to be in (actually its Feb that sees most of the lows)

And we have the threat for colder temps later this month(though its late in the year for HDD's to make a big difference-but compared to extremely mild, a bit chilly, in a relative sense is bullish). 

Magnificent Monday to you! Here's your weather:  https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/48685/

NGI Monday afternoon

Natural Gas Traders See Bright Side to Oil Price Carnage

     5:15 PM    

On another day of widespread economic uncertainty, natural gas futures recovered from an early swoon Monday, rallying sharply as bulls latched onto the prospect of the oil price collapse leading to cuts in associated gas output. After trading as low as $1.610/MMBtu, the April Nymex contract went on to settle at $1.778, up 7.0 cents day/day. Gains were even stronger further along the strip, with the Winter 2020/21 contracts gaining around a dime 

Wonderful  Wednesday Weather: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/48791/

NGI:

Price Action Mixed for Natural Gas Futures After Lighter-Than-Expected Withdrawal

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending March 6, 2020   |  Released: March 12, 2020 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: March 19, 2020 

                                                                                                                                                                                        -48 BCF..........a bit bearish!                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,043 Bcf as of Friday, March 6, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net decrease of 48 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 796 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 227 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,816 Bcf. At 2,043 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2015 through 2019. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

Like Equities, Natural Gas Futures Back Higher in Early Trading as Volatility Persists

       9:00 AM  Friday

Warm south, chilly to cold Upper Midwest to West.  Here's your weather: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/48904/

Still no sustained cold in the high population, high heating demand centers................last March is getting too late to make a big difference. 

Friday afternoon/weeks end comments from Natural Gas Intelligence:

Natural Gas Futures Inch Higher to Close Out Wild Week for Markets

Capping off a wild week of trading for both energy markets and beyond, natural gas futures inched higher Friday, boosted by a more supportive weather outlook and the prospect of future production cuts. The April Nymex contract picked up 2.8 cents to settle at $1.869/MMBtu after trading as high as $1.951 and as low as $1.795

Splendid Sunday to you! Here's your weather: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/48967/

Warm Southeast, chilly N.Plains this week.

Maybe turning chilly Northeast week 2 with the AO and NAO finally getting down to 0.........for the first time this year.

It's too late in the heating season to make a big difference with HDD's and the Corornavirus is 10 times more important.

Unleaded is below 82c at the moment!

Natural Gas Futures Weathering Coronavirus Storm as Prices Slide

     5:19 PM    

With day-to-day life upended by the coronavirus outbreak and stocks plummeting, natural gas futures sagged under the pressure as markets weighed the prospect of demand destruction from the nation’s new social distancing regimen. The April Nymex contract fell 5.4 cents to settle at $1.815/MMBtu after trading in a range from $1.778 to $1.854.

EIA storage report from last Thursday:

NGI:

Price Action Mixed for Natural Gas Futures After Lighter-Than-Expected Withdrawal

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending March 6, 2020   |  Released: March 12, 2020 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: March 19, 2020 

                                                                                                                                                                                         -48 BCF..........a bit bearish!                                                                                                                                                   

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,043 Bcf as of Friday, March 6, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net decrease of 48 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 796 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 227 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,816 Bcf. At 2,043 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2015 through 2019. The dashed vert

Temperatures for the 7 day period for last weeks report:

Temperatures for this Thursdays EIA report

https://www.investin

U.S. Natural Gas Storage

   Latest Release  Mar 12, 2020    Actual-48B   Forecast-59B    Previous-109B

Tue am from NGI: Coronavirus Demand Impacts, Milder Overnight Forecasts Send Natural Gas Futures Lower

tues wx: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/49031/

From Natural Gas Intelligence after the close Tuesday:  

Front of Natural Gas Futures Curve Sags Under Weight of Slowing Economy

     5:22 PM    

As natural gas futures traders continued weighing coronavirus demand destruction against future production cuts, the bearish side of the argument won out Tuesday, at least for the near term. The April Nymex contract tumbled 8.6 cents to settle at $1.729/MMBtu.

How can anyone not be looking at calls or even mini's at these prices?!  This is panic selling and the opportunity that all traders look for.  

You are right Jim.

As soon as the daily numbers for new infections tops out and the markets have a KNOWN to replace a very scary UNKNOWN about how bad it might get, including worst case scenario, the bottom will be in.

Corn -10c 

UNL 63c

Dow -1,700

NG 1,580

Wow-Wow-Wow!

This is all that matters:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/48892/

  NGI WED AM: Natural Gas Down Sharply as Virus Containment Efforts ‘Could Crush Energy Demand’

Wild Wednesday! Here's your weather:  https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/49112/

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending March 13, 2020   |  Released: March 19, 2020 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: March 26, 2020 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      -9 BCF     Coronavirus expectations matter more than this.                                                                                                                               

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,034 Bcf as of Friday, March 13, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net decrease of 9 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 878 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 281 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,753 Bcf. At 2,034 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2015 through 2019. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

Thanks for this Thursday(even if it's turbulent)!  Here's your weather: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/49173/

NGI late morning:

EIA Reports Larger-Than-Expected Storage Pull, Briefly Nudging Natural Gas Futures Higher

      11:26 AM

Friday weather:  https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/49234/

Natural Gas Futures Slide; Analysts Brace for ‘Startling’ Coronavirus-Related Demand Hit

     5:36 PM    

The volatility in the broader economy continued to make its presence felt in the natural gas futures market Friday, with prices ultimately sliding amid uncertainty over the full impact of the coronavirus. After trading as high as $1.700/MMBtu and as low as $1.574, the April Nymex contract went on to settle at $1.604, down 5.0 cents on the day.

Spectacular Sunday to you! Here's your weather:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/49285/

European natural gas storage inventories are at record-high levels at the end of winter

https://www.oilandgas360.com/european-natural-gas-storage-inventories-are-at-record-high-levels-at-the-end-of-winter/

Terrific Tuesday to You! Here's your weather: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/49429/

MUCH cooler Midwest/East for week 2!!!

Thanks for adjusting the title perfectly Larry!

Natural Gas Intelligence after the close on Tuesday:

Natural Gas Futures Follow Equities Higher as Coronavirus Continues to Weigh on Outlook

     5:16 PM    

Mirroring gains in equities as markets looked to lawmakers for economic relief in the face of the coronavirus pandemic, natural gas futures rallied Tuesday. The April Nymex contract settled at $1.653/MMBtu, up 5.1 cents on the day.

metmike: If I didn't know any better, I would say that the ng was actually following the big increase in heating degree days we experienced in today's forecast vs yesterday........starting with the 0z GFS ensembles last night. 

This seemed to start before the stock market soared higher. However, we are talking April now. It's too dog gone late in the heating season for chilly air masses to make much difference in storage.

The NWS 8-14 dropped temps in the key heating areas of the Midwest and East by a couple of categories.......down to equal odds/average., from widespread high odds of warmth.

I've been noting the AO and NAO turning negative for a week now on the daily weather threads which foretold this colder change before the actual models turned colder.

NGI Wednesday early:

Signs of Optimism for Broader Economy as Natural Gas Called Higher

NGI after the close Wednesday:

Futures Steady as Natural Gas Market Braces for ‘Unprecedented Impacts’ from Covid-19

     5:26 PM    

With the natural gas market stuck in wait-and-see mode as traders and analysts seek more clarity on the impacts of coronavirus containment measures, futures traded close to even Wednesday. The April Nymex contract added 0.6 cents to settle at $1.659/MMBtu.

NGI Thursday Morning:

Natural Gas Futures Called Lower Ahead of Latest EIA Data

metmike: April Natural Gas expires tomorrow, Friday. Watch out for a price spike or volatility ahead of this............I guess in the recent environment, that's normal (-:

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending March 20, 2020   |  Released: March 26, 2020 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: April 2, 2020 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      -29 BCF slightly bullish?

(but demand destruction lies ahead) (also, much cooler temps in week 2 but its very late in the heating season)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,005 Bcf as of Friday, March 20, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net decrease of 29 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 888 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 292 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,713 Bcf. At 2,005 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2015 through 2019. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

https://www.oilandgas360.com/weekly-gas-storage-5-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2/

NGI after the close on Thursday:  Coronavirus Potentially ‘Brutal’ for Natural Gas; Storage Report Doesn’t Lift Bulls’ Spirits

Weather pattern change in early April to cool but its a bit late to generate enough HDD's to be very bullish.

NGJ expires tomorrow/Friday

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

U.S. Natural Gas Storage

  L atest Release  Mar 26, 2020  Actual-29B  Forecast-25B   Previous-9B

NGI Friday Morning:  Natural Gas Futures Called Lower as Markets Weigh Covid-19 Impacts

Splendid Saturday to You! Here's your weather: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/49621/

Turning very chilly next week for the Midwest/East!

SunnySational Sunday to You! Here's Your Weather:  https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/49694/

Not as cold overnight on the European model.

Earlier this morning:

Weekend Forecasts Warmer; ‘Bleak Developments’ for Virus Keep Pressure on Natural Gas

Marvelous Monday to You! Here's your weather:  https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/49738/

Weather Tuesday............warmer the first 10 days, then turning colder.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/49821/

NGI after the close:

Virus Worries Weighing on Front of Natural Gas Curve as Rig Counts Signal Future Supply Cuts

See-saw price action continued in the natural gas futures market Tuesday, with the prompt month relinquishing overnight gains as mild weather and Covid-19 demand destruction weighed down the front of the curve. The May Nymex contract traded as high as $1.731/MMBtu but went on to settle at $1.640, down 5.0 cents.