INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - Feb. 20, 2020, 4:29 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Thursday, February 20, 2020 



8:30 AM ET. February Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey



                       Business Activity (previous 17.0)



                       Prices Paid (previous 22.1)



                       Employment (previous 19.3)



                       New Orders (previous 18.2)



                       Prices Received (previous 14.7)



                       Delivery Times (previous -0.4)



                       Inventories (previous -2.3)



                       Shipments (previous 23.4)



8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims



                       Jobless Claims (previous 205K)



                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +2K)



                       Continuing Claims (previous 1698000)



                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -61K)



9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index



10:00 AM ET. January Leading Indicators



                       Leading Index, M/M% (previous -0.3%)



                       Leading Index (previous 111.2)



                       Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.1%)



                       Lagging Index, M/M% (previous -0.1%)



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report



                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2494B)



                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -115B)

                       

11:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report



                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 442.468M)



                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +7.459M)



                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 261.049M)



                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.095M)



                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 141.222M)



                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.013M)



                       Refinery Usage (previous 88.0%)



                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.968M)



                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.133M)



4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings



4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings



4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures



Friday, February 21, 2020 



8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales



                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 968.8K)



                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 51.2K)



                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 687.1K)



9:45 AM ET. February US Flash Manufacturing PMI



                       PMI, Mfg (previous 51.7)



9:45 AM ET. February US Flash Services PMI



                       PMI, Services  (previous 53.2)



10:00 AM ET. January Existing Home Sales



                       Existing Sales (previous 5.54M)



                       Existing Sales, M/M% (previous +3.6%)



                       Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 3.0)



                       Median Price (USD) (previous 274500)



                       Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous 7.8%)



  N/A              U.S. Monetary Policy Forum


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes



The March NASDAQ 100 posted a key reversal down on Thursday due to profit taking as it consolidates some of this month's rally. Additional weakness on Friday is needed to confirm today's key reversal down, which would signal that an important short-term top has likely been posted. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last-October's low, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9373.65 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 9763.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9373.65. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9033.74.   



The March S&P 500 posted a key reversal down on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off the late-December's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3322.73 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3394.90. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3322.73. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3271.30.  



The Dow closed lower on Thursday as cases of coronavirus outside of China may be sparking some anxiety. However, market analyst struggled to point to a single reason that triggered today's sell off. A rebound in the afternoon trade tempered some of today's losses leave a mid-range close that sets the stage for a steady to higher opening is possible when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 28,780.59 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 29,535.98. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29,046.31. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28,780.59. 



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



March T-bonds closed up 1-03/32's at 164-02.



March T-bonds closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off January's low, August's high crossing at 165-23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 162-06 are needed to confirm a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 164-09. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 165-23. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 162-06. Second support is the February 6th low crossing at 160-15. 



March T-notes closed up 130-pts. at 131.155.



March T-notes closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, February's high crossing at 131.290 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.286 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 131.290. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 132.025. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.286. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 129.208.        



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



April crude oil closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off February's low. Today's rally was underpinned by a smaller-than-expected weekly rise in domestic crude inventories, along with declines in gasoline and distillate stockpiles. Additional support came from news of a move by China's central bank to boost the nation's economy, which helped to ease concerns over a slowdown in energy demand. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 56.63 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 51.82 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 54.66. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 56.63 is the next upside target. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 51.82. Second support is February's low crossing at 49.50.   



April heating oil closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates above the 20-day moving average crossing at 167.22. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's low, the January 29th high crossing at 173.54 is the next upside target. If April resumes this year's decline, the June 2017-low crossing at 155.89 is the next downside target. First resistance is the January 29th high crossing at 173.55.Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 184.26. First support is February's low crossing at 157.24 Second support is the June 2017-low crossing at 155.89.



April unleaded gas closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday after testing resistance marked by the 50-day moving average crossing at 180.06. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's low, the January 21st high crossing at 186.74 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 169.99 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 180.06. Second resistance is the January 21st high crossing at 186.74. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 20-day moving average crossing at 169.99. Second support is February's low crossing at 160.32.



April Henry natural gas posted key reversal down on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought and are poised to turn neutral to bearish with additional weakness on Friday that would suggest that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends this week's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.038 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.885 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.038. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 2.196. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.885. Second support is February's low crossing at 1.788.         



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The March Dollar closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 99.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.42 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 99.82. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 99.90. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 99.04. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.42.



The March Euro closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off the December 31st high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, monthly support crossing at 106.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 109.78 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 108.89. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 109.78. First support is today's low crossing at 107.93. Second support is monthly support crossing at 106.55.



The March British Pound closed lower on Thursday as it renewed the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at 1.2801 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3087 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the February 13th high crossing at 1.3080. Second resistance is the December 31st high crossing at 1.3225. First support is today's low crossing at 1.2857. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at 1.2801.



The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off February's high.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1.0156 is the next downside target. Close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0286 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0229. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0286. First support is today's low crossing at 1.0170. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1.0156.



The March Canadian Dollar closed sharply lower on Thursday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.04 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off December's high, last-September's low crossing at 74.90 is the next downside target.First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 75.71. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.04. First support is February's low crossing at 75.01. Second support is last-September's low crossing at 74.90. 



The March Japanese Yen closed sharply lower for the second day in a row on Thursday as it extended this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 0.0881 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0914 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is February's high crossing at 0.0925. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 0.0932. First support is today's low crossing 0.0892. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.0881.



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



April gold closed higher on Thursday and above January's high crossing at $1619.60 as it extends the rally off February's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off January's low, weekly resistance crossing at $1687.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1581.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $1626.50. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at $1687.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1581.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average at $1548.50.



March silver posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, January's high crossing at 18.895 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average at 17.710 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 18.895. Second resistance is the September 24th high crossing at 18.930. First support is the February low crossing at 17.435. Second support is January's low crossing at 17.280. 



March copper closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 272.22 is the next upside target. If March resumes this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 234.31 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 263.25. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 272.22. First support is February's low crossing at 248.75. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 234.31.  



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March Corn closed down $0.02-cents at 3.78 1/2. 



March corn closed lower on Thursday while extending the December-February trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below January's low crossing at $3.75 1/4 would open the door for a possible test of December's low crossing at $3.71. Closes above January's high crossing at $3.94 are needed to confirm an upside trading range breakout while opening the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at $4.00. First resistance is January's high crossing at $3.94. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $4.00. First support is January's low crossing at $3.75 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at $3.71.    



March wheat closed down $0.05 1/4-cents at $5.60.  



March wheat closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends Tuesday's rally, January's high crossing at $5.92 1/2. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $5.25 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $5.70 3/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.92 1/2. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $5.38 1/4. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $5.25 1/2.      



March Kansas City Wheat closed down a $0.06-cents at $4.73 3/4.

 

March Kansas City wheat posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday as it consolidates some of Tuesday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends Tuesday's rally, January's high crossing at $5.04 3/4. Closes below February's low crossing at $4.58 1/2 would renew the decline off January's high. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $5.86 3/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.04 3/4. First support is February's low crossing at $4.58 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at 4.23 1/2.   



March Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.06 3/4-cents at $5.29 1/2. 



March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of Tuesday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.41 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 5.21 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.41 1/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.67 3/4. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 5.25 1/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 5.21 1/4.      



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March soybeans closed down $0.04 3/4-cents at $8.92 1/2.



March soybeans closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.16 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.88 3/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the January 29th high crossing at $9.03. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.16 1/2. First support is February's low crossing at $8.68 3/4. Second support is last-May's low crossing at $8.41 1/2.    



March soybean meal closed down $0.10 at $292.90. 



March soybean meal closed slightly lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $292.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes this year's decline, monthly support crossing at $283.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $292.90. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $298.40. First support is February's low crossing at $286.40. Second support is monthly support crossing at $283.10.    



March soybean oil closed down 24-pts. at 30.10. 



March soybean oil closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-January low crossing at 29.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.93 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.93. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.67. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 29.78. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-January low crossing at 29.54.        

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



April hogs closed down $.70 at $66.88. 



April hogs posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally but remains above the 20-day moving average crossing at 66.31 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 72.03 is the next upside target. If April resumes the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at $52.25 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $68.25. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 72.03. First support is February's low crossing at $61.00. Second support is weekly support crossing at $52.25.   



April cattle closed down $1.65 at $119.15. 



April cattle closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a pause in the rally off February's low is possible. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $120.19 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April renews the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $114.17 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $120.19. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $124.29. First support is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $116.71. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $114.17.  

 

March Feeder cattle closed up $0.03-cents at $140.80. 



March Feeder cattle closed slightly higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at $141.64 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $136.98 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $141.64. Second resistance is the January 21st high crossing at $145.18. First support is February's low crossing at $133.65. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $131.45.       



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.32 confirming that a low has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.28 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.63 is the next upside target. 



May cocoa closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.24 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends this winter's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 30.14 is the next upside target.             



May sugar closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off October's low, last-January's high crossing at 16.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.61 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted.     



March cotton closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.43 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's  high, the December 18th low crossing at 66.25 is the next downside target.  

Comments
By metmike - Feb. 20, 2020, 11:52 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine.


Much milder temps in week 2 caused the key reversal down that you mentioned above for natural gas.


We are still trading above the top of the bullish gap higher from Sunday Night.  In fact, those were the lows so far this evening............the top of the gap(1.878)

This is big support for tonight. Will maps continue warmer and we break below that or will they turn colder and we go back up?