KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, February 20, 2020
8:30 AM ET. February Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous 17.0)
Prices Paid (previous 22.1)
Employment (previous 19.3)
New Orders (previous 18.2)
Prices Received (previous 14.7)
Delivery Times (previous -0.4)
Inventories (previous -2.3)
Shipments (previous 23.4)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 205K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +2K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1698000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -61K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. January Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (previous -0.3%)
Leading Index (previous 111.2)
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2494B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -115B)
11:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 442.468M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +7.459M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 261.049M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.095M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 141.222M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.013M)
Refinery Usage (previous 88.0%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.968M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.133M)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
Friday, February 21, 2020
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 968.8K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 51.2K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 687.1K)
9:45 AM ET. February US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 51.7)
9:45 AM ET. February US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 53.2)
10:00 AM ET. January Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (previous 5.54M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (previous +3.6%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 3.0)
Median Price (USD) (previous 274500)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous 7.8%)
N/A U.S. Monetary Policy Forum
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight on new coronavirus concerns. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's high into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9378.84 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 9763.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9378.84. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9035.84.
The March S&P 500 was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off October's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signals that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3324.04 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3394.90. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3324.04. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3271.83.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends the rally off February's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off January's low, last-August's high crossing at 165-23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 162-05 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 164-09. Second resistance is last-August's high crossing at 165-23. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 162-05. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 159-07.
March T-notes were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, February's high crossing at 131.290 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.284 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 131.290. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 132.025. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.284. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 129.207.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
April crude oil was steady to slightly lower in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 56.62 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 50.82 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the January 29th high crossing at 54.39. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 56.62. First support is February's low crossing at 49.50. Second support is the December-2018 low crossing at 45.92.
April heating oil was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's low, the January 29th high crossing at 173.54 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 160.64 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the January 29th high crossing at 173.54. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 184.27. First support is February's low crossing at 157.24. Second support is the contract low crossing at 155.89.
April unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low the 50-day moving average crossing at 180.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 170.00 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 180.07 Second resistance is the January 21st high crossing at 186.74. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 170.00. Second support is February's low crossing at 160.32.
April Henry natural gas was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.039 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.888 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.039. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 2.196. First support is February's low crossing at 1.788. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.611.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 99.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.42 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 99.82. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 99.90. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 99.03. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.42.
The March Euro was lower overnight as it extends the decline off December's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 106.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 109.78 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 108.89. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 109.78. First support is the overnight low crossing at 107.93. Second support is weekly support crossing at 106.55.
The March British Pound was lower overnight as it renewed its decline off December's high.The lower-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off the January 31st high, the November 8th low crossing at 1.2830 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3086 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the January 31st high crossing at 1.3225. Second resistance is the December 31st high crossing at 1.3312. First support is the November 8th low crossing at 1.2830. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-December 2019 rally crossing at 1.2801.
The March Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 1.0156 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0287 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0230. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0287. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.0170. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 1.0156.
The March Canadian Dollar was lower in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 75.32 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 75.71. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.05. First support is February's low crossing at 75.02. Second support is October's low crossing at 75.01.
The March Japanese Yen was sharply lower for the second day in a row overnight as it extends this year's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 0.0881 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0917 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0909. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0914. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.0892. Second support is monthly support crossing at 0.0881.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was higher overnight as it extends the rally off February's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off January's low, monthly resistance crossing at $1687.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1581.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $1620.70. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $1687.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1586.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1581.10.
March silver was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, January's high crossing at $18.895 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving averagecrossing at $17.710 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $18.450. Second resistance is January's highcrossing at $18.895. First support is the 50-day moving averagecrossing at $17.710. Second support is February's low crossing at $17.435.
March copper was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If March extends the rally off February's low, the January 27th gap crossing at $273.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at $254.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the January 27th gap crossing at $273.60. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $272.23. First support is the reaction low crossing at $254.00. Second support is February's low crossing at $248.75.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was lower overnight as it extends the December-February trading range. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.84 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March extends the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at $3.75 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $3.94. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $4.00. First support is January's low crossing at $3.75 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at $3.71.
March wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, January's high crossing at $5.92 1/4 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at 5.25 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $5.70 3/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.92 1/4. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $5.41 1/4. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at 5.25 1/2.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down a $0.06-cents at $4.79 3/4.
March Kansas City wheat posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday as it consolidates some of Tuesday's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends Tuesday's rally, January's high crossing at $5.04 3/4. Closes below February's low crossing at $4.58 1/2 would renew the decline off January's high. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $5.86 3/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.04 3/4. First support is February's low crossing at $4.58 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at 4.23 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's rally. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Tuesday's close above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.41 1/4 confirms that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends Tuesday's rally, the January 28th high crossing at $5.49 1/4 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 5.21 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.41 1/4. Second resistance is the January 28th high crossing at $5.49 1/4. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 5.25 1/4. Second support the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 5.21 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally the January 29th high crossing at $9.03 is the next upside target. Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at $8.85 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the January 29th high crossing at $9.03. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.16 1/2. First support is February's low crossing at $8.68 3/4. Second support is the May-2018 low crossing at $8.41 1/2.
March soybean meal was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $292.40 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March renews this winter's decline, monthly support crossing at $283.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $292.40. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $298.30. First support is February's low crossing at $286.40. Second support is monthly support crossing at $283.10.
March soybean oil was lower overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-December 2018 rally crossing at 29.54 is the next likely downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.93 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.93. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.67. First support is the 75% retracement level of the May-December 2018 rally crossing at 29.54. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the May-December 2018 rally crossing at 28.55.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed up $2.08 at $67.58.
April hogs closed sharply higher on Wednesday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at 66.70 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 72.17 is the next upside target. If April resumes the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at $52.25 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at $68.25. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 72.17. First support is February's low crossing at $61.00. Second support is weekly support crossing at $52.25.
April cattle closed up $0.20 at $120.80.
April cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $120.57 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April renews the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $114.17 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $120.57. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $124.42. First support is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $116.71. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $114.17.
March Feeder cattle closed up $1.48-cents at $140.78.
March Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at $141.66 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $136.71 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $141.66. Second resistance is the January 21st high crossing at $145.18. First support is February's low crossing at $133.65. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $131.45.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed slightly lower on Wednesday but remain above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.35 confirming that a low has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.67 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.22 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March cocoa closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are poised to turn neutral to bearish with additional weakness. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this winter's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 30.14 is the next upside target.
March sugar closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, last-January's high crossing at 16.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.87 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted.
March cotton closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.55 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the December 18th low crossing at 66.25 is the next downside target.