KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, February 18, 2020
8:30 AM ET. February Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 4.8)
Employment Idx (previous 9.0)
New Orders Idx (previous 6.6)
Prices Received (previous 14.4)
10:00 AM ET. February NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (previous 75)
4:00 PM ET. December Treasury International Capital Data
Wednesday, February 19, 2020
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 689.5)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +1.1%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 267.4)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -9.5%)
Refinance Idx (previous 3123.6)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +5.0%)
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +0.0%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +2.2%)
8:30 AM ET. January New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (previous 1.608M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (previous +16.9%)
Building Permits (previous 1.416M)
Building Permits, M/M% (previous -3.9%)
8:30 AM ET. January PPI
PPI, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Personal Consumption (previous +0%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -0.7%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +4.8%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +4.8%)
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Advance Quarterly Services
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales
2:00 PM ET. Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes published
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +6.0M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.1M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.3M)
Thursday, February 20, 2020
8:30 AM ET. February Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous 17.0)
Prices Paid (previous 22.1)
Employment (previous 19.3)
New Orders (previous 18.2)
Prices Received (previous 14.7)
Delivery Times (previous -0.4)
Inventories (previous -2.3)
Shipments (previous 23.4)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 205K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +2K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1698000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -61K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. January Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (previous -0.3%)
Leading Index (previous 111.2)
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2494B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -115B)
11:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 442.468M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +7.459M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 261.049M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.095M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 141.222M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.013M)
Refinery Usage (previous 88.0%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.968M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.133M)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
Friday, February 21, 2020
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 968.8K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 51.2K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 687.1K)
9:45 AM ET. February US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 51.7)
9:45 AM ET. February US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 53.2)
10:00 AM ET. January Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (previous 5.54M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (previous +3.6%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 3.0)
Median Price (USD) (previous 274500)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous 7.8%)
N/A U.S. Monetary Policy Forum
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight on news from Apple Inc. that it won’t be able to meet second-quarter financial guidance due to the coronavirus. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's high into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9320.54 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 9687.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9320.54. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8980.39.
The March S&P 500 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this year's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signals that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3320.41 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3389.30. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3320.41. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3266.94.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends the rally off February's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off January's low, last-August's high crossing at 165-23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 161-23 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 164-09. Second resistance is last-August's high crossing at 165-23. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 161-23. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 159-00.
March T-notes were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, October's high crossing at 132.025 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.234 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 131.290. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 132.025. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.234. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 129.181.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
March crude oil was lower overnight due to concerns over weakening demand because of worries over the spread of the coronavirus.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 52.35 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the December-2018 low crossing at 45.76 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 52.35. Second resistance is the January 29th high crossing at 54.37. First support is February's low crossing at 49.31. Second support is the December-2018 low crossing at 45.76.
March heating oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 168.32 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 145.80 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 168.32. Second resistance is the January 29th high crossing at 173.55. First support is February's low crossing at 156.84. Second support is monthly support crossing at 145.80.
March unleaded gas was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low the 50-day moving average crossing at 163.08 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 153.55 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 163.08 Second resistance is the January 21st high crossing at 168.80. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 153.55. Second support is February's low crossing at 143.45.
March Henry natural gas gapped above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.863 as it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.051 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 1.611 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.863. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.051. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 1.753. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.611.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 99.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 99.16. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 99.31. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 98.74. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 98.19.
The March Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off December's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 106.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.11 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 109.39. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.11. First support is the overnight low crossing at 108.39. Second support is weekly support crossing at 106.55.
The March British Pound was steady to slightly lower overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3099 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March extends the decline off the January 31st high, the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870 is the next downside target. First resistance is the January 31st high crossing at 1.3225. Second resistance is the December 31st high crossing at 1.3312. First support is the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870. Second support is the November 8th low crossing at 1.2830.
The March Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 1.0156 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0306 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0260. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0306. First support is the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 1.0207. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 1.0156.
The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower in late-overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off January's high, October's low crossing at 75.01 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.60. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.05. First support is February's low crossing at 75.02. Second support is October's low crossing at 75.01.
The March Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0918 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 0.0906 is the next downside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 0.0925. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 0.0932. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 0.0908. Second support is monthly support crossing at 0.0906.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was higher overnight while extending the January-February trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April renews the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at $1619.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the January 14th low crossing at $1542.80 are needed to renew the decline off January's high. First resistance is February's high crossing at $1598.50. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $1619.60. First support is the January 14th low crossing at $1542.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1542.60.
March silver was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at $18.375 would confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If March resumes the decline off January's high, the December 18th low crossing at $16.935 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at $18.375. Second resistance is January's highcrossing at $18.895. First support is January's low crossing at $17.280. Second support is the December 18th low crossing at $16.935.
March copper was steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $260.62 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off January's high, monthly support crossing at $234.31 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $260.62. Second resistance is the January 27th gap crossing at $267.75. First support is February's low crossing at $248.75. Second support is monthly support crossing at $234.31.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was higher overnight as it extends the December-February trading range. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at $3.75 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.83 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is January's high crossing at $3.94. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $4.00. First support is January's low crossing at $3.75 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at $3.71.
March wheat was higher overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.60 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at 5.25 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.60. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.92 1/4. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $5.41 1/4. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at 5.25 1/2.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down a $0.00 1/2-cent at $4.65 1/2.
March Kansas City wheat closed fractionally lower on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.76 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at $4.58 1/2 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.76 1/2. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.04 3/4. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $4.58 1/2. Second support is December's low crossing at 4.23 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are poised to turn neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.38 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 5.21 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.38 1/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.67 3/4. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 5.25 1/4. Second support the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 5.21 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If March extends this month's rally the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.17 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.87 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.17. Second resistance is the January 17th high crossing at $9.33 1/2. First support is February's low crossing at $8.68 3/4. Second support is the May-2018 low crossing at $8.41 1/2.
March soybean meal was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $293.00 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March extends this winter's decline, monthly support crossing at $283.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 293.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $298.80. First support is February's low crossing at $286.40. Second support is monthly support crossing at $283.10.
March soybean oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends last week's trading range. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-December 2018 rally crossing at 29.54 is the next likely downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.20. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.71. First support is the 75% retracement level of the May-December 2018 rally crossing at 29.54. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the May-December 2018 rally crossing at 28.55.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed up $0.23 at $64.30.
April hogs closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April resumes the rally off February's low, the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.44 is the next upside target. If April resumes the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at $52.25 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $67.44. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 72.47. First support is February's low crossing at $61.00. Second support is weekly support crossing at $52.25.
April cattle closed up $1.80 at $120.33.
April cattle closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off December's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.22 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April extends the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $114.17 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.22. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $124.59. First support is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $116.71. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $114.17.
March Feeder cattle closed up $2.20-cents at $138.53.
March Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at $137.57 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at $141.71 is the next upside target. If March resumes this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $131.45 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $141.07. Second resistance is the January 21st high crossing at $145.18. First support is February's low crossing at $133.65. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $131.45.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed higher on Friday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.40 confirming that a low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, October's low crossing at 9.58 is the next downside target.
March cocoa closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are poised to turn neutral to bearish with additional weakness. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.13 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this winter's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 30.14 is the next upside target.
March sugar closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off September's low. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.78 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October's low, last-January's high crossing at 16.25 is the next upside target.
March cotton closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, the December 18th low crossing at 66.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.75 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!
Change to much colder has natural gas all fired up!
Winterkill threat for Winter wheat with several strong cold blasts the next 2 weeks. Probably marginal events but still enough to hurt the wheat a bit after all this mild weather.