Happy Valentines day! Keep giving thanks to be living in the best time of human history!
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2.
NEW: ++AO and +NAO must drop for sustained major cold! Late week 2 shows this happening but that period has been very unreliable this Winter.
Not so NEW: The long lived upper level ridge in the Southeast US is breaking down! This will allow cooler air to affect the East/Southeast. However, air masses will not be very cold coming from the Pacific or from Canada in week 2.
Very old: Reasons to be thankful here in 2020!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/45623/
Winter Weather Forecasts
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml
Snowfall the next 7 days below.
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/us_air_temperature/air_temperature
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/wind_chill_heat_index1/air_temperature
Current Weather Map
NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop | NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion | NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion |
Current Jet Stream
Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
Highs today and tomorrow.
Highs for days 3-7:
Another big shot of cold across the northern half.
Surface Weather features day 3-7:
Another Arctic front/high and more cold as well as a Winter Storm early next week.
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
Moderate precip Northwest.
South getting some moderate rains.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971
Last 24 hour precip top map
Last 7 day precip below that
https://www.wunderground.com/maps/precipitation/daily
Current Dew Points
Latest radar loop
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
(3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb) Go to: Most Recent Image |
Go to: Most Recent Image
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
Wet soils in the Midwest with planting starting in 2 months. Plenty of time to dry out but Spring Storms with heavy precip will be bullish for corn.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
Drought Monitor maps:
Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.
February 6 : DROUGHT in TX/SW Plains to points northwest right now. No drought anywhere in the Midwest.
The maps below are updated on Thursdays.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.
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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2....................0z Canadian ensembles:
Updated 12z maps available this late...........turning colder late week 2 vs previous solutions. Potential for another polar vortex incursion south...on some solutions, mainly this particular model!
Starting with last week below:
Last Monday in January: Both the northern and southern streams are stronger, so the gradient between them is more packed. Much more cross polar flow today so Canada is MUCH colder. Any air masses that make it south of the Canadian border will have some frigid air. This, while a modest ridge tries to build in the far Southeast will milder air. This is the recipe for an enormous temperature contrast from very cold in the NorthCentral to warm in the southeast. Maybe an 80 degree temperature differential at times? Small changes in the location of the main features and boundary between the contrasting air masses is causing huge model to model shifts in temperatures.
Tuesday: Cross polar flow and polar vortex in Canada..........frigid! Modest ridge trying to build in the far Southeast US.........mild! How deeply south will the frigid air be able to penetrate? Models are going back and forth on every run. For sure there will be a huge temperature gradient from northwest to southeast and the coldest anomalies will be in the NorthCentral US...to northern Rockies.
Wednesday: More ridging in the Southeast for sure. This mean more resistance to the cold air as it tries to push southeast. Trough is also farther west which lines up with that and for the coldest air to be farther west today. Still cross polar flow and mighty cold air filling up Canada so cold fronts will be loaded with frigid air in week 2.
Thursday: The models are warmer, especially the European Ensembles for the 2nd day in a row............but NOT the Canadian model, which is actually colder today and bets heavily that the northern stream will drop well south of the US border. With cross polar flow, the air massed coming from Canada will have some frigid air. All the models have been too cold over the past month and this one has been the coldest(wrong by the most). With an almost +++AO and +NAO it will be tough to keep a sustained cold air flow from the north coming......but maybe the +++AO is wrong?
Saturday: Colder today and more northern stream.
Sunday: Really looking cold at the end of 2 weeks on some solutions. More later today.
First Monday in Feb: Sorry for no comments over the weekend.........but it changed anyway.12z run today. Over the weekend, the ridge west/trough east couplet was looking much more impressive and colder. More zonal today, mainly because the there is no ridge in the West............it retrogrades much farther west into the Northeast Pacific. Definitely more zonal and milder today than over the weekend........but with cross polar flow dumping frigid air into Canada, cold fronts that drop into the trough in the northern US will be very cold at times.
Tuesday: 12z run today. More zonal. Less northern stream. Cross polar flow and source of very cold in Canada prior to this is getting cut off. Milder for this model on Tuesday morning but the last 12z GFS went the other way.......colder. The EURO wont come out for a little while but the previous on was colder.
Wednesday: Much deeper trough into the US(base from N.Plains to Southwest) but a bit farther west than previous solutions and the upper level ridge in the Southeast stronger on several solution is consistent with that. Massive disparity/contrast based on the difference in how the northern and southern streams are handled. For sure there will be great temp contrast from cold in the N.Plains to very warm in the Southeast. Could get close to a 100 degree difference with near 90 in FL and below 0 in MT.
Saturday: The almost always(this year) too cold Canadian model has REALLY warmed things up late week 2 vs previous forecasts. The average is more zonal, west to east flow which is very mild. Several have a modest ridge W.Canada, trough downstream couplet which would make it much colder in the Midwest..........minority of solutions. No more cross polar flow that is a feature in next weeks cold coming from Canada..........so Canada will REALLY warm up during week 2.
Sunday: Very mild, zonal flow. Near record warmth in Canada.
Monday: 12z model. Extremely mild, west to east zonal flow. Canada will be especially warm so cold fronts will not be very cold in week 2.
Tuesday: 12z run. Still mild.
Wednesday: COLDER than yesterday. Good bye Southeast ridge! This will allow colder air masses to penetrate more deeply southeast. A minority of members rev up the northern stream and drive it deeply into the US, along with a couple that have the polar vortex coming along for the ride. Those seem too extreme right now.
Friday: 12z run. Huge differences based on a battle between southern stream and northern stream. One camp is very cold because it emphasizes the northern stream. The other camp is warm from emphasizing the southern stream. This particular solution is slightly colder than the previous one but similar with everything else.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Feb 29, 2020 12 UTC
Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)
Individual GFS ensemble solutions for the latest 0z run:
GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above). The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).
NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast
Last Monday: The favorable ridge/west, trough east couplet from over the weekend has shifted. The ridge west has retrograded west to the Northeast Pacific to Western Alaska. The downstream trough anomaly has shifted a bit east and the 2 are less connected but still are favorable for bitter cold air............even cross polar flow between them to dump into most of Canada. This means cold fronts that can manage to get into the northern tier will have some frigid air. At the same time, a building positive/ridge anomaly in the Southeast will make it warm there and repel any attempts from the northern stream to send cold air in that direction. This pattern is the recipe for a massive temperature contrast from north to south. Would not be surprized to see near 90 in Florida with near 0 at the same time along the Canadian border.
Tuesday: Big positive anomaly from Northeast Pacific to Alaska and downstream negative anomaly(in far Eastern Canada...bit far away to be an ideal couplet) should drive cold down thru Canada, with some cross polar flow making it a potent brand of cold. However, the mid latitudes are not at all in sync with that cold from the northern stream getting a good(maximized) push very far east and especially not southeast. The reason is an upper level ridge/positive anomaly in the Southeast which will resist cold intrusions and induce a southerly (south to north movement) component to mid/upper level steering currents in the Southeast 1/3rd of the country. With the amount of frigid air in S.Canada during week 2, its very likely that a good chunk of that will push well south of the US border behind any waves/perturbations in the flow that tug it down with the north to south winds on the backside.
Wednesday: Positive anomaly in the Northeast Pacific has shifted east to just off the West Coast of Canada. Downsteam negative anomaly is way up in Northeast Canada.......pretty far away for the flow between them to ideally couple and maximize the southward push of cold. Pretty impressive, growing positive anomaly, centered in the Southeast will make it IMPOSSIBLE for cold air to do anything but make a very brief, very moderated appearance in the Southeast. Huge temp contrast from cold/north to warm/southeast.
Saturday: 2 positive anomalies. 1 centered off the Pac NW Coast and another in the Southeast. Modest positive anomalies between them with the nearest negative anomalies many thousands of miles away............having no flow pattern linkage to the positive anomalies anywhere close to the US. This is the recipe for widespread warmth across North America. No chance for major cold at 2 weeks until this changes.
Sunday: Huge area of positive anomalies stretching across the entire country, with the exception of the far Northeast. This is the recipe for widespread mild weather with Pacific Origin air masses spreading across most of North America. Eastern Canada to the far Northeast might be chilly at times.
Monday: Main positive anomaly is now in the Pac Northwest with some northwest flow down stream but the source region of the air will be very mild. Maybe the positive anomaly/ridge in the Southeast finally weakens.
Tuesday: Long lived, Positive anomaly/ridge in the Southeast is dead. This will give that region a chance to cool off a bit but there is no very cold air around.
Wednesday: New, modest positive anomaly in far northwest Canada to almost the North Pole with weak negative anomaly to southeast Canada..............this change in the high latitudes would need to amplify in order to provide a robust flow of frigid southward into the US.....especially the Northeast US.
Friday: Modest positive anomalies in the high latitudes and slight weakness in the middle latitudes(USA) suggests air will be able to move from Canada southward. However, the air in Canada will be very mild, so cold fronts may not have true Arctic air. The long lived Southeast US positive anomaly/upper level high has vanished..........consistent with all the other solutions this week. This will allow cold air to the north to penetrate all the way to the Gulf Coast, instead of it being blocked as was the case since all of this year previously.
GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above). The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).
NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast
Last Monday: The favorable ridge/west, trough east couplet from over the weekend has shifted. The ridge west has retrograded west to the Northeast Pacific to Western Alaska. The downstream trough anomaly has shifted a bit east and the 2 are less connected but still are favorable for bitter cold air............even cross polar flow between them to dump into most of Canada. This means cold fronts that can manage to get into the northern tier will have some frigid air. At the same time, a building positive/ridge anomaly in the Southeast will make it warm there and repel any attempts from the northern stream to send cold air in that direction. This pattern is the recipe for a massive temperature contrast from north to south. Would not be surprized to see near 90 in Florida with near 0 at the same time along the Canadian border.
Tuesday: Big positive anomaly from Northeast Pacific to Alaska and downstream negative anomaly(in far Eastern Canada...bit far away to be an ideal couplet) should drive cold down thru Canada, with some cross polar flow making it a potent brand of cold. However, the mid latitudes are not at all in sync with that cold from the northern stream getting a good(maximized) push very far east and especially not southeast. The reason is an upper level ridge/positive anomaly in the Southeast which will resist cold intrusions and induce a southerly (south to north movement) component to mid/upper level steering currents in the Southeast 1/3rd of the country. With the amount of frigid air in S.Canada during week 2, its very likely that a good chunk of that will push well south of the US border behind any waves/perturbations in the flow that tug it down with the north to south winds on the backside.
Wednesday: Positive anomaly in the Northeast Pacific has shifted east to just off the West Coast of Canada. Downsteam negative anomaly is way up in Northeast Canada.......pretty far away for the flow between them to ideally couple and maximize the southward push of cold. Pretty impressive, growing positive anomaly, centered in the Southeast will make it IMPOSSIBLE for cold air to do anything but make a very brief, very moderated appearance in the Southeast. Huge temp contrast from cold/north to warm/southeast.
Saturday: 2 positive anomalies. 1 centered off the Pac NW Coast and another in the Southeast. Modest positive anomalies between them with the nearest negative anomalies many thousands of miles away............having no flow pattern linkage to the positive anomalies anywhere close to the US. This is the recipe for widespread warmth across North America. No chance for major cold at 2 weeks until this changes.
Sunday: Huge area of positive anomalies stretching across the entire country, with the exception of the far Northeast. This is the recipe for widespread mild weather with Pacific Origin air masses spreading across most of North America. Eastern Canada to the far Northeast might be chilly at times.
Monday: Main positive anomaly is now in the Pac Northwest with some northwest flow down stream but the source region of the air will be very mild. Maybe the positive anomaly/ridge in the Southeast finally weakens.
Tuesday: Long lived, Positive anomaly/ridge in the Southeast is dead. This will give that region a chance to cool off a bit but there is no very cold air around.
Wednesday: New, modest positive anomaly in far northwest Canada to almost the North Pole with weak negative anomaly to southeast Canada..............this change in the high latitudes would need to amplify in order to provide a robust flow of frigid southward into the US.....especially the Northeast US.
Friday: Modest positive anomalies in the high latitudes and slight weakness in the middle latitudes(USA) suggests air will be able to move from Canada southward. However, the air in Canada will be very mild, so cold fronts may not have true Arctic air. The long lived Southeast US positive anomaly/upper level high has vanished..........consistent with all the other solutions this week. This will allow cold air to the north to penetrate all the way to the Gulf Coast, instead of it being blocked as was the case since all of this year previously.
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO and PNA here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.
Discussions, starting with the oldest below.
Last Monday: Wild changes. AO spikes to record highs at the top of the chart near +++++AO, then plunges at the end of 2 weeks towards 0. NAO is solidly positive(no record) but starts dropping late. PNA is very strongly negative but is turning at the end of 2 weeks. The changes at the end of 2 weeks still suggest the potential for much colder weather during the 2nd half of February, after the East/Southeast are very mild prior to then. This late period has had poor model performance and been to cold all year, so we will dial that long lived BIG bias into our forecast philosophy, while wanting to believe that it will turn colder because it would provide more interesting meteorology and trading (-:
Tuesday: Record +++++AO ahead, during the next week....followed by a crash lower and very wide spread......meaning uncertainty but still positive AO. Not good for sustained cold in the South and East. NAO is solidly positive........not good for cold in the East and South. -PNA once again is strongly negative, also not good for east going deeply southeast..........good for cold in the West and just south of the border farther east. However, things may be changing in week 2 and may look different on Wednesday.
Wednesday: The main item is the record +++++AO coming in a few days.............this drops(how can't it) but stays positive with a wide spread in week 2. +NAO stays positive. -PNA very strong negative increasing towards 0 late wek 2. This indices are UNfavorable for sustained cold in the East/Southeast.
Saturday: AO spikes to near record highs then stays at least +AO after that. +NAO too. No way will there be sustained very cold weather during the 2nd half of February unless this changes substantially. PNA actually increases to slightly positive as a ridge builds off the Pac Northwest Coast.
Sunday: Same as yesterday............mild.
Monday: Some changes. +++++AO drops hard at the end of 2 weeks but still +AO. +NAO also drops a bit late week 2. -PNA actually crosses 0 and becomes positive at the end of 2 weeks. These would be the changes needed and they must continue in that direction for a better signal of sustained cold..........and we are getting late enough in Winter so that the brand of cold is not going to be as bone chilling.
Tuesday: With PNA finally tuning a bit positive and NAO dropping late, there is a chance for the southeast to cool off a bit. However, solidly positive AO means not much cold air from higher latitudes moving to the middle latitudes so Canada will be mild and cold fronts will not be very cold.
Wednesday: AO and NAO still holding on to positives at the end, though dropping a bit............still not ideal for cold air delivery from high to middle latitudes. PNA close to 0, just a tad positive at the end.
Friday: Big changes at the end of the period. +++AO plunges to near zero at the end of 2 weeks and is still dropping. +AO also drops to near 0 and is dropping. PNA a tad positive. These changes make the environment more favorable for cold to move from high latitudes to middle latitudes in sustained fashion.
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Updated daily just after 2pm Central.
Temperature Probability
the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
Previous posts:
Winter so far for the Nation...warmest on record (beating 2005/2006)
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Thursday
By metmike - Feb. 6, 2020, 7:26 p.m.
latest 32 day snowfall on euro vs older run, Tad more robust
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By metmike - Feb. 6, 2020, 7:30 p.m.
Snowfall anomalies thru Feb 6 compared to the 2008-2018 avg. Thoughts 1. Sierra Nevada need the Pacific Split to end 2. Central/Northern Rockies ahead 2. Northern Plains have already exceeded a winter's worth of snow 3. Ohio Valley / Appalachians / Northeast wet but not snowy
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By metmike - Feb. 6, 2020, 7:32 p.m.
Long-term median number of days per year with snow depth of 1"+ on the ground.
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By metmike - Feb. 11, 2020, 3:33 p.m.
NEW: The long lived upper level ridge in the Southeast US will be breaking down during week 2! This will allow cooler air to affect the East/Southeast. However, air masses will not be very cold coming from the Pacific or from Canada in week 2.
Email: meteormike@msn.com | IP Address: None | Cookie ID: None
0 likes
By WxFollower - Feb. 12, 2020, 3:33 p.m.
The Arctic (80N to 90N) is cooling down again (see image below). Will it finally get to below normal/colder than 245 K (-28 C) with the extreme and long-lasting +AO?? I'm still hoping.
Note on the image that the coldest day's normal there (per green line) still isn't til ~2/26, when it drops briefly to 242 K (-31 C or -24 F). Also, note that the normal for exactly one month from today (3/12) is still about the same as today's 244 K. So, the point is that the Arctic can still churn out very cold air through about a month from now. That's why if the delivery/upper winds are just right and it is fast enough, it can still get mighty cold even down into the southern US into mid March despite a good bit higher sun by then. March is rarely dull from many perspectives and this is one of the reasons, the battle of the lingering very cold Arctic and the warming in the temperate regions from a higher sun. March, the weather enthusiast's dream month!
Arctic daily mean temps through today, 2/12/2020:
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By metmike - Feb. 12, 2020, 7:43 p.m.
Great points and graph Larry!
This also illustrates the fact that global warming/climate change is warming the coldest places, during the coldest times of year the most.
Since your graph shows this year, Winter only , I provided a year round temp profile for 2016-2018 below as an example of temperatures in the Arctic for the entire year.................staying milder/less harsh in the normally frigid environment of Winter but then every Summer, temperatures are very close to and sometimes BELOW average.
The graph below this one shows each year going back over 45 years. You may need to wait a couple of seconds for it to load. What is amazing is that during the "cold" season, temperatures are consistently above to much above average(less harsh) but every Summer they get back to average(and much of the time, even a bit below average.
So most people may think that its warmer temperatures during the melt season that is melting all the ice but temperatures have frequently been a bit BELOW average during the melt season, which melts less ice.
What is actually happening is that during the rest of the year, during the freeze season temperatures are well above average so not as much of the ice that melted the prior Summer freezes as deeply. This thinner ice, is then easier to melt the next Summer, even with temperatures that are average or even a tad below average(but above freezing and with the sun shining 24 hours a day.
The ice loss was pretty great up until 2012. Since then it has (temporarily) stabilized.
We should note too, that SEA ice is already floating in the sea. Melting it does not add much to sea levels(like an ice cube melting in your drink). This is a big reason for why all that melting Arctic sea ice prior to 2012 did NOT cause an acceleration of the rate of sea level increase.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/11/10/uah-arctic-temperature-profile/
This (painstakingly created) animation shows the DMI above 80N from 1970 thru Oct 2018. Images sourced from DMI’s Arctic Temperatures page.
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By WxFollower - Feb. 13, 2020, 6:48 p.m.
Here are the daily HDDs from the new (2/13) Euro Weeklies in the far left column alongside those from the prior run (2/10) on the right side. Focus on the 2 HDD columns. Look how much colder they got today for 2/19-23, especially 2/20-1 which each increased by a whopping 9-11 HDDs (see bolded below)! that much colder on those days over just a 3 day span of model runs is amongst the most rapid increases in week 2 you'll ever see on an ensemble run. And, of course, that's why there's suddenly now a winter storm threat to follow for 2/20-2 in the south vs none of the sort as of just 2-3 days ago.
Also, note that 2/26-3/3 are also quite a bit colder vs the Monday run:
Another thing to note is how cold 2/13-15 are on both runs. On the weekly run from one week ago, that cold was nonexistent as that batch of Arctic was hardly dropping into the US.
So, the gist of all of this is that instead of models warming up as the days would get closer as they have been most of the winter due to being cold biased, we're now seeing quite cold airmasses suddenly showing up well before the ends of 2 week runs and in some cases late in week1 which are adding a significant amount of heating demand.
ECMWF-Weeklies | 2020-02-13 | 2020-02-10 | ||||||
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Date | HDD | HDD 30Y Climo | HDD 30Y Diff | CDD | CDD 30Y Climo | CDD 30Y Diff | HDD | CDD |
2020-02-13 | 25.96 | 22.62 | 3.34 | 0.57 | 0.12 | 0.45 | 24 | 0.56 |
2020-02-14 | 31.68 | 22.42 | 9.26 | 0.27 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 31.33 | 0.27 |
2020-02-15 | 26.95 | 22.21 | 4.74 | 0.20 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 28.08 | 0.2 |
2020-02-16 | 19.60 | 22.01 | -2.41 | 0.25 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 20.32 | 0.27 |
2020-02-17 | 17.50 | 21.80 | -4.30 | 0.50 | 0.13 | 0.37 | 17.47 | 0.42 |
2020-02-18 | 18.48 | 21.59 | -3.11 | 0.72 | 0.13 | 0.59 | 17.63 | 0.58 |
2020-02-19 | 25.19 | 21.38 | 3.81 | 0.47 | 0.13 | 0.34 | 19.56 | 0.41 |
2020-02-20 | 30.82 | 21.15 | 9.67 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 20.24 | 0.31 |
2020-02-21 | 28.52 | 20.93 | 7.59 | 0.12 | 0.14 | -0.02 | 19.15 | 0.25 |
2020-02-22 | 23.56 | 20.70 | 2.86 | 0.10 | 0.14 | -0.04 | 18.5 | 0.2 |
2020-02-23 | 20.69 | 20.46 | 0.23 | 0.04 | 0.14 | -0.10 | 18.82 | 0.18 |
2020-02-24 | 18.72 | 20.23 | -1.51 | 0.07 | 0.15 | -0.08 | 19.36 | 0.15 |
2020-02-25 | 19.13 | 19.98 | -0.85 | 0.14 | 0.15 | -0.01 | 19.07 | 0.13 |
2020-02-26 | 21.23 | 19.74 | 1.49 | 0.13 | 0.15 | -0.02 | 19.8 | 0.16 |
2020-02-27 | 23.10 | 19.50 | 3.60 | 0.11 | 0.15 | -0.04 | 21.05 | 0.14 |
2020-02-28 | 23.31 | 19.25 | 4.06 | 0.12 | 0.16 | -0.04 | 21.9 | 0.14 |
2020-02-29 | 23.89 | 19.25 | 4.64 | 0.12 | 0.16 | -0.04 | 22.25 | 0.15 |
2020-03-01 | 24.03 | 19.01 | 5.02 | 0.12 | 0.16 | -0.04 | 22.28 | 0.19 |
2020-03-02 | 23.32 | 18.76 | 4.56 | 0.12 | 0.16 | -0.04 | 21.37 | 0.14 |
2020-03-03 | 21.43 | 18.51 | 2.92 | 0.14 | 0.17 | -0.03 | 21.07 | 0.14 |
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By metmike - Feb. 13, 2020, 11:01 p.m.
That really is incredible Larry!
Take this longer range forecast below with an even smaller grain of salt than usual.
The pattern at the end of week 2, leading up to this features warmth in the north and very chilly in the south.........the opposite of what they have for weeks 3-4.
Regardless, it looks like the huge ridge in the Southeast will be dead, allowing cooler air masses to push deeply south and wiping out the anomalous warmth that has dominated there all year.
Week 3-4 Outlooks | ||
Valid: 29 Feb 2020 to 13 Mar 2020 Updated: 14 Feb 2020 | ||
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Temperature Probability | Precipitation Probability (Experimental) | |