INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - Feb. 13, 2020, 3:46 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Friday, February 14, 2020 



8:30 AM ET. January Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services



                       Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.3%)



                       Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.7%)



                       Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.5%)



8:30 AM ET. January Import & Export Price Indexes



                       Import Prices (expected -0.2%; previous +0.3%)



                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.2%)



                       Petroleum Prices (previous +2.1%)



9:15 AM ET. January Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization



                       Industrial Production, M/M% (expected -0.2%; previous -0.3%)



                       Capacity Utilization % (expected 76.8%; previous 77.0%)



                       Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous -0.4)



10:00 AM ET. December Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales



                       Total Inventories (expected +0.1%; previous -0.2%)



10:00 AM ET. February University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary



                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 99.2; previous 99.1)



                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 88.3)



                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 115.8)



The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes



The March NASDAQ 100 closed slightly lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last-October's low, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9276.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 9644.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9404.23. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9276.50.   



The March S&P 500 closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3311.47 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3382.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3311.47. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3250.64.  



The Dow closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of this year's rally over renewed concerns over the spread of the coronavirus.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 28,655.55 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 29,535.98. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29,042.76. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28,655.55.



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



March T-bonds closed up 8/32's at 161-30.



March T-bonds closed higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 161-06 are needed to confirm a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off January's low, October's high crossing at 164-09 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 164-05. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 164-09. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 161-06. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 158-28. 



March T-notes closed up 35 pts. at 130.255.



March T-notes closed higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.171 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, October's high crossing at 132.025 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 131.290. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 132.025. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.171. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 129.163.        



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



March crude oil closed lower on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 53.06 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March renews the decline off January's high, the December-2018 low crossing at 45.76 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 53.06. Second resistance is the January 29th high crossing at 54.37. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 49.52. Second support is the December-2018 low crossing at 45.76. 



March heating oil closed slightly higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off February's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 170.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes this year's decline, the June 2017-low crossing at 156.49 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 170.20. Second resistance is the January 29th high crossing at 173.55. First support is February's low crossing at 156.84 Second support is the June 2017-low crossing at 156.49.



March unleaded gas closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 163.16 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 151.49 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 161.36. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 163.16. First support is February's low crossing at 143.45. Second support is August's low crossing at 142.08.



March Henry natural gas closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.874 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 1.611 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.874. Second resistance is the January 21st gap crossing at 1.977. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.753. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.611.         



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The March Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 99.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.94 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 98.99. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 99.31. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 98.30. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.94.



The March Euro closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off the December 31st high crossing at 11.29. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, monthly support crossing at 106.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.41 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 109.91. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.41. First support is today's low crossing at 108.52. Second support is monthly support crossing at 106.55.



The March British Pound closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3100 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off December's high, the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870 is the next downside target. First resistance is the January 31st high crossing at 1.3225. Second resistance is the December 31st high crossing at 1.3312. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.2885. Second support is the November 22nd low crossing at 1.2870.



The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off February's high.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1.0207 is the next downside target. Close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0325 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0325. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.0418. First support is today's low crossing at 1.0229. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1.0207.



The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.72 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, September's low crossing at 74.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.72. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.06. First support is Monday's low crossing at 75.01. Second support is September's low crossing at 74.90. 



The March Japanese Yen closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 0.0906 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0919 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is February's high crossing at 0.0925. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 0.0932. First support is Wednesday's low crossing 0.0908. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.0906.  



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



April gold closed higher on Thursday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April resumes the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at $1619.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the January 14th low crossing at $1542.80 are needed to renew the decline off January's high. If this support level is broken, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1536.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $1598.50. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $1619.60. First support is the January 14th low crossing at $1542.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average at $1536.40.



March silver closed higher on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past five-weeks. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, the December 18th low crossing at 16.935 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 18.375 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 18.895. Second resistance is the September 24th high crossing at 18.930. First support is January's low crossing at 17.280. Second support is the December 18th low crossing at 16.935.



March copper closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 263.11 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 234.31 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 263.11. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 272.81. First support is February's low crossing at 248.75. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 234.31.  



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March Corn closed down $0.03 3/4-cents at 3.79 1/4. 



March corn closed lower on Thursday while extending the December-February trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at $3.75 1/4 would open the door for a possible test of December's low crossing at $3.71. Closes above January's high crossing at $3.94 are needed to confirm an upside trading range breakout while opening the door for a possible test of November's high crossing at $4.00. First resistance is January's high crossing at $3.94. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $4.00. First support is January's low crossing at $3.75 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at $3.71.    



March wheat closed down $0.02 3/4-cents at $5.44 3/4.  



March wheat closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $5.25 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.61 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.61 3/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.92 1/2. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $5.38 1/4. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $5.25 1/2.      



March Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.05-cents at $4.66.

 

March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.77 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at $4.58 1/2 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.77 1/2. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.04 3/4. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $4.58 1/2. Second support is December's low crossing at 4.23 1/2.   



March Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.04 1/2-cents at $5.26 3/4. 



March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 5.21 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.40 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.40 3/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.67 3/4. First support is today's low crossing at 5.26 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 5.21 1/4.     



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March soybeans closed up $0.03 1/4-cents at $8.95 3/4.



March soybeans closed higher on Thursday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.94 1/4 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.16 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.83 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the January 29th high crossing at $9.03. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.16 3/4. First support is February's low crossing at $8.68 3/4. Second support is last-May's low crossing at $8.41 1/2.    



March soybean meal closed up $0.10 at $291.60. 



March soybean meal closed higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $293.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes this year's decline, monthly support crossing at $283.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $293.90. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $299.10. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $286.40. Second support is monthly support crossing at $283.10.     



March soybean oil closed down 27-pts. at 30.76. 



March soybean oil closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.46 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-January low crossing at 29.54 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.46. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.71. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 29.81. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-January low crossing at 29.54.        

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



April hogs closed up $0.30 at $64.08. 



April hogs closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April resumes the rally off February's low, the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.91 is the next upside target. If April resumes the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at $52.25 is the next downside target. First resistance is the January 30th gap crossing at $68.67. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 72.67. First support is February's low crossing at $61.00. Second support is weekly support crossing at $52.25.   



April cattle closed up $0.68 at $118.53. 



April cattle closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off December's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $114.17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.53 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.53. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $124.71. First support is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $116.71. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-2019 rally crossing at $114.17.  

 

March Feeder cattle closed up $1.28-cents at $136.33. 



March Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $137.89 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $131.45 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $137.89. Second resistance is the January 27th gap crossing at $139.20. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $133.65. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January-rally crossing at $131.45.       



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.42 would confirm that a low has been posted. If March extends the decline off December's high, October's low crossing at 9.58 is the next downside target. 



March cocoa closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 30.14 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.            



March sugar closed sharply lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off September's low. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, last-January's high crossing at 16.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.74 are needed to confirm that a top has been posted.   



March cotton closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.89 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's  high, the December 18th low crossing at 66.25 is the next downside target.  

Comments
By metmike - Feb. 14, 2020, 1:16 a.m.
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Thanks again tallpine!