Weather Sunday
16 responses | 0 likes
Started by metmike - Feb. 9, 2020, 10:17 a.m.

5 days until Valentines day!   Keep giving thanks to be living in the best time of human history!

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2.



We have mostly seasonal cold on the way this week( a bit frigid along the Canadian border for a couple of days) then turning much milder at the end of week 1(continuing week 2). 

+++AO  and +NAO must drop for sustained major cold!


NEW: Reasons to be thankful here in 2020!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/45623/


Winter Weather Forecasts


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml

  Snowfall the next 7 days below.
Here are the latest hazards across the country.

                                                            Southern Florida NE Gulf N of 25N E of 87WGulf from 22N to 25N E of 87W including Straits of Florida NW Gulf including Stetson BankN Central Gulf including Flower Garden Banks Marine SanctuaryW Central Gulf from 22N to 26N W of 94WCentral Gulf from 22N to 26N between 87W and 94W Atlantic from 27N to 31N W of 77WAtlantic from 27N to 31N between 70W and 77WAtlantic from 27N to 31N between 65W and 70WBahamas N of 22N including the Cay Sal BankAtlantic from 22N to 27N E of Bahamas to 70W Tropical N Atlantic from 15N to 19N between 55W and 60WCaribbean N of 18N between 76W and 85W including the Cayman BasinCaribbean N of 18N between 76W and 85W including the Cayman BasinCaribbean approaches to the Windward PassageAtlantic S of 22N W of 70W including approaches to the Windward PassageNewport/Morehead City, NCBrownsville, TXCorpus Christi, TXHouston/Galveston, TXNew Orleans, LALake Charles, LAMobile, ALTallahassee, FLTampa, FLMiami, FLKey West, FLFlorida KeysMiami, FLMelbourne, FLJacksonville, FLCharleston, SCWilmington, NCBaltimore/Washington, DCWakefield, VAPhiladelphia/Mt. Holly, PA/NJNew York, NYBoston, MAGray/Portland, ME Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington MECoastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME out 25 NMWaters from Eastport ME to Stonington ME from 25 to 40 NMNortheast Minnesota and Northern WisconsinNorthern MichiganNorthern MichiganNorthern MichiganEast Central Wisconsin - Green BayEast Central Wisconsin - Green BaySouthern and Southeastern WisconsinNortheastern Illinois and Northwestern Indiana - ChicagoNorthern Indiana and Northwestern OhioSouthwestern MichiganNortheast Michigan - GaylordNortheast Michigan - GaylordNortheast Michigan - GaylordSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitNorthern OhioWestern New York - BuffaloWestern New York - Buffalo Northern MichiganLos Angeles, CASan Diego, CASan Francisco Bay Area/Monterey, CAEureka, CAMedford, ORPortland, ORSeattle, WALos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaSouth Central CaliforniaSan Francisco AreaWestern NevadaNorth Central CaliforniaNorthwest California CoastSouthwest Oregon and Northern CaliforniaNortheast Oregon and Southeast WashingtonNorthwest OregonNorthwest WashingtonEastern Washington and Northern IdahoSouthern Nevada, Southeastern California and Northwestern Arizona - Las VegasSouthwestern California - San DiegoCentral Arizona and California DesertsSoutheast ArizonaNorthern ArizonaUtahNorthern and Northeastern NevadaSouthwestern Idaho and Eastern OregonSoutheastern IdahoWestern Montana and Central IdahoCentral Montana - Great FallsNortheastern MontanaSoutheastern MontanaWestern WyomingSoutheastern Wyoming and Western NebraskaNortheastern ColoradoWestern Colorado and Eastern UtahSoutheastern ColoradoNorthern and Central New MexicoSouthern New Mexico and extreme Western Texas - El PasoTexas and OklahomaLubbock and South Plains TexasWestern Texas and Southeastern New MexicoWestern South Dakota and Northeastern WyomingNorthwestern Kansas and East Central Colorado - GoodlandCentral Nebraska - North PlatteNorth Central Kansas and South Central NebraskaSoutheastern South Dakota, Southwestern Minnesota, and Northwestern IowaNorthern and Northeastern South DakotaWestern North DakotaEastern Nebraska and Southwestern Iowa - Omaha ValleyNortheastern KansasSoutheastern KansasSouthwestern Kansas - Dodge CityCentral OklahomaEastern Oklahoma and Northwestern ArkansasDallas and Fort WorthCentral Texas - San AngeloAustin and San Antonio TexasCorpus Christi, Victoria, and Laredo TexasSouthern TexasTexas - Houston/GalvestonSoutheast Texas and Southwest LouisianaNorthern Louisiana and Eastern Texas - ShreveportArkansasSouthwestern MissouriNorthwestern MissouriCentral IowaSouthern MinnesotaNortheastern North Dakota and Northwestern MinnesotaNortheast Minnesota and Northern WisconsinSouthwestern Wisconsin, Southeastern Minnesota, and Northeast IowaEastern Iowa and Northwestern Illinois - Quad CitiesEastern Missouri - West Central IllinoisWestern Tennessee, Eastern Arkansas and Northern Mississippi - MemphisCentral MississippiSoutheastern LouisianaMiddle TennesseeNorthern AlabamaCentral AlabamaMobile - PensacolaWest Central FloridaEast Central FloridaPanhandle of Florida and Southwestern GeorgiaNortheast Florida and Southeast GeorgiaNorthern and Central GeorgiaLow Country of South Carolina and GeorgiaNortheastern South Carolina and Southeastern North Carolina - WilmingtonCentral South Carolina and CSRAWestern North Carolina and Northwest South CarolinaEastern TennesseeEastern KentuckyCentral KentuckySouthern Illinois and Indiana, Southeastern Missouri and Western KentuckyCentral and East Central IllinoisCentral IndianaNortheastern Illinois and Northwestern Indiana - ChicagoSouthern and Southeastern WisconsinEast Central Wisconsin - Green BayNorthern MichiganNortheast Michigan - GaylordNortheast Michigan - GaylordSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitSouthwestern MichiganNorthern Indiana and Northwestern OhioSouthwestern Ohio Northern KentuckyWest VirginiaWestern Virginia, Southeast West Virginia, and Northwest North CarolinaCentral North Carolina - RaleighEastern North CarolinaEastern Virginia, Southern Maryland and Northeast North CarolinaWashington D.C., Central Maryland, Northern Virginia, Eastern West VirginiaWestern Pennsylvania, East Central Ohio and Extreme Western MarylandNorthern OhioCentral PennsylvaniaNew Jersey, Delaware, and Southeastern PennsylvaniaNew York City and Surrounding AreasSouth Central New York and Northeastern PennsylvaniaWestern New York - BuffaloEastern New York and Western New England AreasBoston and Surrounding AreasNorthern Vermont and New YorkSouthern Maine and New HampshireNorthern Maine Gulf of Maine to the Hague LineGeorges Bank between Cape Cod and 68W north of 1000 fathomsSouth of New England between the Great South Channel and Montauk Point to 1000 fathomsSouth of Long Island between Montauk Point and Sandy Hook to 1000 fathomsHudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon to 1000 fathomsBaltimore Canyon to Cape Charles Light to 100 NM offshoreCape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light to 100 NM offshoreCurrituck Beach Light to Cape Hatteras to 100 NM offshoreCape Hatteras to Cape Fear to 100 NM offshoreCape Fear to 31N to 1000 FMGeorges Bank between 68W and the Hague LineEast of 69W to the Hague Line between 1000 fathoms and 39NEast of 69W and south of 39N to 250 NM offshoreBetween 1000 fathoms and 38.5N west of 69WBaltimore Canyon to 69W east of 1000 fathoms and south of 38.5N to 250 NM offshoreBaltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon between 100 NM and 250 NM offshoreHatteras Canyon to Cape Fear 100 NM and 250 NM offshoreCape Fear to 31N east of 1000 fathoms to 250 NM offshoreCape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreCape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreCape Lookout to Florence, OR between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreFlorence, OR to Point St. George between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePoint St. George to Point Arena between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePoint Arena to Pigeon Point between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePoint Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreSanta Cruz Island, CA to San Clemente Island, CA between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreCape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreCape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreCape Lookout to Florence, OR between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreFlorence, OR to Point St. George between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePoint St. George to Point Arena between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePoint Arena to Pigeon Point between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePoint Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreSanta Cruz Island, CA to 120W between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreSan Clemente Island, CA to Guadalupe Island from 60 NM Offshore west to 120W                                                                                                                                                                  


Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind,  Green is flooding. Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory.  

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/                 Go to "hazards"                                                                                     

                   



 

https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/us_air_temperature/air_temperature


https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/wind_chill_heat_index1/air_temperature



 Current Weather Map


NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop
NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion
NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion

 

       
Understanding These Maps
Surface Map Legend
Precip Legend
NCEP Surface Maps
(Mouseover)

U.S. Surface Analysis
National Radar Image
12-Hr Forecast
24-Hr Forecast
36-Hr Forecast
48-Hr Forecast
Short Term Loop
Day 3 Forecast
Day 4 Forecast
Day 5 Forecast
Day 6 Forecast
Day 7 Forecast
Low Tracks Error Circle
Low Tracks Ensemble





Legend

                                        

                          


Current Jet Stream


Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning

                    

                    

                    


                                        

Highs today and tomorrow.

 

                                    

Comments
By metmike - Feb. 9, 2020, 10:19 a.m.
Like Reply

Highs for days 3-7:


Shot of cold northern half, a couple of frigid days along the northern border.........Very mild Southeast. 

Cold recedes towards the end of this period.


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gif

                                    

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

                                                          


            

           

By metmike - Feb. 9, 2020, 10:23 a.m.
Like Reply

Temperatures vs average for days 3-7.  


Reds in the Southeast remains impressive...........contrasting with modest blues to near average farther north and west.

Beyond this period the reds grow!

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/95Bwbg.gif

                                    

                                    

By metmike - Feb. 9, 2020, 10:24 a.m.
Like Reply

Surface Weather features day 3-7:


A couple of Arctic fronts that moderate greatly heading southeast.........followed by widespread warming into week 2.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

                                    

                                    


            

By metmike - Feb. 9, 2020, 10:24 a.m.
Like Reply

Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.


Heavy precip Northwest US finally lets up......but comes back late. 

Southeast getting some very heavy rains!

Just light amounts in the Midwest this period.......maybe increasing week 2?



Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971

  

By metmike - Feb. 9, 2020, 10:26 a.m.
Like Reply

Excessive rain potential.

Big rain event this week southeast of the Midwest.


Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions

  

Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 16Z 08/30/19 - 12Z 08/31/19

 

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  


  Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts 
Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 08/31/19 - 12Z 09/01/19

 

Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format 

 

Current Day 3 ForecastCurrent Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

                                    

                                    

By metmike - Feb. 9, 2020, 10:28 a.m.
Like Reply

Severe Storm Risk the next 8 days.

A couple of days to watch in the South for a risk this week.


Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Grams/Leitman
Issued: 30/1238Z
Valid: 30/1300Z - 31/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk        
      
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Mosier
Issued: 30/0537Z
Valid: 31/1200Z - 01/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms        
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Mosier
Issued: 30/0725Z
Valid: 01/1200Z - 02/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms
      
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

                                    

                                    


            

                

By metmike - Feb. 9, 2020, 10:30 a.m.
Like Reply

Last 24 hour precip top map

Last 7 day precip below that

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/precipitation/daily

Static mapAnimated mapCA - BakersfieldNY - BinghamtonND - BismarckNH - BerlinTX - BrownsvilleKY - Bowling GreenMI - CadillacNC - CharlotteGA - ColumbusOH - DaytonCO - DenverIA - Des MoinesFL - Key WestVA - RoanokeCT - HartfordMO - Jefferson CityOK - LawtonNE - North PlatteAR - Little RockMT - LewistownLA - New OrleansID - McCallFL - Saint PetersburgSD - PierreAZ - PrescottUT - ProvoOR - RedmondWY - RivertonNV - RenoNM - RoswellTX - San AntonioVA - StauntonKS - SalinaIL - SpringfieldMN - Saint CloudWA - TacomaMS - Vicksburg

Learn About Daily Precipitation

Static mapAnimated mapCA - BakersfieldNY - BinghamtonND - BismarckNH - BerlinTX - BrownsvilleKY - Bowling GreenMI - CadillacNC - CharlotteGA - ColumbusOH - DaytonCO - DenverIA - Des MoinesFL - Key WestVA - RoanokeCT - HartfordMO - Jefferson CityOK - LawtonNE - North PlatteAR - Little RockMT - LewistownLA - New OrleansID - McCallFL - Saint PetersburgSD - PierreAZ - PrescottUT - ProvoOR - RedmondWY - RivertonNV - RenoNM - RoswellTX - San AntonioVA - StauntonKS - SalinaIL - SpringfieldMN - Saint CloudWA - TacomaMS - Vicksburg



Animated map

By metmike - Feb. 9, 2020, 10:31 a.m.
Like Reply

Current Dew Points


Current Dew Points

                                    

Latest radar loop


http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

                       


 

Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop

  


 (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
Go to: Most Recent Image

      

Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image

                                  

    You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:


https://water.weather.gov/precip/


                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"

                                    

By metmike - Feb. 9, 2020, 10:31 a.m.
Like Reply

Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).


Wet soils in the Midwest with planting starting in 2 months. Plenty of time to dry out but Spring Storms with heavy precip will be bullish for corn.


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#

                            

Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif

                                    

By metmike - Feb. 9, 2020, 10:32 a.m.
Like Reply

Drought Monitor maps:

Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.


February 6 : DROUGHT in TX/SW Plains to points northwest right now. No drought anywhere in the Midwest.

The maps below are updated on Thursdays.


      https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/    

                     


                

                                                                  

Drought Monitor for conus

                                        


Drought Monitor for conus

    

By metmike - Feb. 9, 2020, 10:34 a.m.
Like Reply

The top map is the Canadian ensemble average,  the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

End of week 2....................0z  Canadian ensembles:

Updated 12z maps available this late...........turning colder late week 2 vs previous solutions. Potential for another polar vortex incursion south...on some solutions, mainly this particular model!

Starting with last week below:



Last Monday in January: Both the northern and southern streams are stronger, so the gradient between them is more packed. Much more cross polar flow today so Canada is MUCH colder. Any air masses that make it south of the Canadian border will have some frigid air. This, while a modest ridge tries to build in the far Southeast will milder air.  This is the recipe for an enormous temperature contrast from very cold in the NorthCentral to warm in the southeast. Maybe an 80 degree temperature differential at times? Small changes in the location of the main features and boundary between the contrasting air masses is causing huge model to model shifts in temperatures. 

Tuesday: Cross polar flow and polar vortex in Canada..........frigid!  Modest ridge trying to build in the far Southeast US.........mild!  How deeply south will the frigid air be able to penetrate? Models are going back and forth on every run. For sure there will be a huge temperature gradient from northwest to southeast and the coldest anomalies will be in the NorthCentral US...to  northern Rockies.

Wednesday: More ridging in the Southeast for sure. This mean more resistance to the cold air as it tries to push southeast.  Trough is also farther west which lines up with that and for the coldest air to be farther west today. Still cross polar flow and mighty cold air filling up Canada so cold fronts will be loaded with frigid air in week 2. 

Thursday: The models are warmer, especially the European Ensembles for the 2nd day in a row............but NOT the Canadian model, which is actually colder today and bets heavily that the northern stream will drop well south of the US border. With cross polar flow, the air massed coming from Canada will have some frigid air. All the models have been too cold over the past month and this one has been the coldest(wrong by the most). With an almost +++AO and +NAO  it will be tough to keep a sustained cold air flow from the north coming......but maybe the +++AO is wrong?

Saturday: Colder today and more northern stream. 

Sunday: Really looking cold at the end of 2 weeks on some solutions. More later today.

First Monday in Feb: Sorry for no comments over the weekend.........but it changed anyway.12z run today. Over the weekend, the ridge west/trough east couplet was looking much more impressive and colder. More zonal today, mainly because the there is no ridge in the West............it retrogrades much farther west into the Northeast Pacific. Definitely more zonal and  milder today than over the weekend........but with cross polar flow dumping frigid air into Canada, cold fronts that drop into the trough in the northern US will be very cold at times.

Tuesday: 12z run today.  More zonal. Less northern stream. Cross polar flow and source of very cold in Canada prior to this is getting cut off. Milder for this model on Tuesday morning but the last 12z GFS went the other way.......colder. The EURO wont come out for a little while but the previous on was colder.

Wednesday: Much deeper trough into the US(base from N.Plains to Southwest) but a bit farther west than previous solutions and the upper level ridge in the Southeast stronger on several solution is consistent with that.  Massive disparity/contrast based on the difference in how the northern and southern streams are handled. For sure there will be great temp contrast from cold in the N.Plains to very warm in the Southeast. Could get close to a 100 degree difference with near 90 in FL and below 0 in MT.

Saturday: The almost always(this year) too cold Canadian model has REALLY warmed things up late week 2 vs previous forecasts. The average is more zonal, west to east flow which is very mild. Several have a modest ridge W.Canada, trough downstream couplet which would make it much colder in the Midwest..........minority of solutions. No more cross polar flow that is a feature in next weeks cold coming from Canada..........so Canada will REALLY warm up during week 2. 

Sunday: Very mild, zonal flow. Near record warm in Canada.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Feb 24, 2020 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)

By metmike - Feb. 9, 2020, 10:34 a.m.
Like Reply

Individual GFS ensemble solutions for the latest 0z run:

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/f360.gif

                                    

By metmike - Feb. 9, 2020, 10:35 a.m.
Like Reply

GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above).  The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast



Last Monday:  The favorable ridge/west, trough east couplet from over the weekend has shifted. The ridge west has retrograded west to the Northeast Pacific to Western Alaska. The downstream trough anomaly has shifted a bit east and the 2 are less connected but still are favorable for bitter cold air............even cross polar flow between them to dump into most of Canada. This means cold fronts that can manage to get into the northern tier will have some frigid air.  At the same time, a building positive/ridge anomaly in the Southeast will make it warm there and repel any attempts from the northern stream to send cold air in that direction. This pattern is the recipe for a massive temperature contrast from north to south. Would not be surprized to see near 90 in Florida with near 0 at the same time along the Canadian border. 

Tuesday: Big positive anomaly from Northeast Pacific to Alaska and downstream negative anomaly(in far Eastern Canada...bit far away to be an ideal couplet) should drive cold down thru Canada, with some cross polar flow making it a potent brand of cold. However, the mid latitudes are not at all in sync with that cold from the northern stream getting a good(maximized) push very far east and especially not southeast. The reason is an upper level ridge/positive anomaly in the Southeast which will resist cold intrusions and induce a southerly (south to north movement) component to mid/upper level steering currents in the Southeast 1/3rd of the country. With the amount of frigid air in S.Canada during week 2, its very likely that a good chunk of that will push well south of the US border behind any waves/perturbations in the flow that tug it down with the north to south winds on the backside. 

Wednesday: Positive anomaly in the Northeast Pacific has shifted east to just off the West Coast of Canada. Downsteam negative anomaly is way up in Northeast Canada.......pretty far away for the flow between them to ideally couple and maximize the southward push of cold. Pretty impressive, growing  positive anomaly, centered in the Southeast will make it IMPOSSIBLE for cold air to do anything but make a very brief, very moderated appearance in the Southeast.  Huge temp contrast from cold/north to warm/southeast.

Saturday: 2 positive anomalies. 1 centered  off the Pac NW Coast and another in the Southeast. Modest positive anomalies between them with the nearest negative anomalies many thousands of miles away............having no flow pattern linkage to the positive anomalies anywhere close to the US.  This is the recipe for widespread warmth across North America. No chance for major cold at 2 weeks until this changes.

Sunday: Huge area of positive anomalies stretching across the entire country, with the exception of the far Northeast. This is the recipe for widespread mild weather with Pacific Origin air masses spreading across most of North America. Eastern Canada to the far Northeast might be chilly at times.

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product


                                   

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850anom_f360_nhbg.gif

                                   

By metmike - Feb. 9, 2020, 10:35 a.m.
Like Reply

Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO and PNA here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t


Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.

Discussions, starting with the oldest  below.



Last Monday: Wild changes. AO spikes to record highs at the top of the chart near +++++AO, then plunges at the end of 2 weeks towards 0. NAO is solidly positive(no record) but starts dropping late. PNA is very strongly negative but is turning at the end of 2 weeks.  The changes at the end of 2 weeks still suggest the potential for much colder weather during the 2nd half of February, after the East/Southeast are very mild prior to then.  This late period has had poor model performance and been to cold all year, so we will dial that long lived BIG bias into our forecast philosophy, while wanting to believe that it will turn colder because it would provide more interesting meteorology and trading (-:

Tuesday: Record +++++AO ahead, during the next week....followed by a crash lower and very wide spread......meaning uncertainty but still positive AO. Not good for sustained cold in the South and East.  NAO is solidly positive........not good for cold in the East and South. -PNA once again is strongly negative, also not good for east going deeply southeast..........good for cold in the West and just south of the border farther east. However, things may be changing in week 2 and may  look different on Wednesday.

Wednesday:  The main item is the record +++++AO coming in a few days.............this drops(how can't it) but stays positive with a wide spread in week 2.  +NAO stays positive.  -PNA very strong negative increasing towards 0 late wek 2. This indices are UNfavorable for sustained cold in the East/Southeast. 

Saturday: AO spikes to near record highs then stays at least +AO after that. +NAO too. No way will there be sustained very cold weather during the 2nd half of February unless this changes substantially. PNA actually increases to slightly positive as a ridge builds off the Pac Northwest Coast.  

Sunday: Same as yesterday............mild.

By metmike - Feb. 9, 2020, 10:36 a.m.
Like Reply

National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

 Updated daily just after 2pm Central.


Temperature Probability


6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability Precipitation Probability


  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


  


the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

            

                                    

By metmike - Feb. 9, 2020, 10:37 a.m.
Like Reply


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/temp_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png

                                    

                                    


            

                

                                                                                    

                Email: meteormike@msn.com | IP Address: None                | Cookie ID: None            

                                                                                                                  

                Re: Re: Weather Saturday            

            

                0 likes            

                            

                By metmike - Feb. 8, 2020, 11:56 a.m.            

            

                                Like                Reply            

                            

Previous posts:

Craig Solberg@CraigSolberg·

Winter so far for the Nation...warmest on record (beating 2005/2006)

Image

                                      ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++  

                Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Thursday            

           

                By metmike - Feb. 6, 2020, 7:26 p.m.            

            

                            Joe Bastardi

@BigJoeBastardi


latest  32 day snowfall on euro vs older run, Tad more robust

Image

                

            +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

                Re: Re: Weather Thursday            

         

                By metmike - Feb. 6, 2020, 7:30 p.m.            

            

Eric Snodgrass@snodgrss·

Snowfall anomalies thru Feb 6 compared to the 2008-2018 avg.  Thoughts 1. Sierra Nevada need the Pacific Split to end 2. Central/Northern Rockies ahead 2. Northern Plains have already exceeded a winter's worth of snow 3. Ohio Valley / Appalachians / Northeast wet but not snowy

Image

                                    


            

                

              +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++               

                Re: Re: Re: Weather Thursday            

            

                By metmike - Feb. 6, 2020, 7:32 p.m.            

            

Long-term median number of days per year with snow depth of 1"+ on the ground.

@AlaskaWx

Image

                                    


            ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++