Weather
25 responses | 0 likes
Started by metmike - June 8, 2018, 9:50 a.m.

National Radar Loop:

Rains in the MN/WI/IA/IL right now:

https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/index_loop.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

Comments
Re: Weather
0 likes
By metmike - June 8, 2018, 9:52 a.m.
Like Reply
Re: Re: Weather
0 likes
By metmike - June 8, 2018, 9:55 a.m.
Like Reply

mcfarm's weather forecast from the NWS

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=215&y=133&site=ind&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=215&map_y=133#.WxfqnX8h03E

                        

Today

A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm.  Partly sunny, with a high near 89. South southwest wind 5 to 7 mph. 

Tonight

A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2am.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. East southeast wind around 6 mph. 

Saturday

A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 8am.  Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Southeast wind around 7 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. 

Saturday Night

A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Southeast wind 3 to 6 mph. 

Sunday

A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Southeast wind 6 to 8 mph becoming west southwest in the afternoon. 

Sunday Night

A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66.

Monday

A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Partly sunny, with a high near 84.

Monday Night

A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2am.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 68.

Tuesday

A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 87.

Tuesday Night

A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68.

Wednesday

A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Partly sunny, with a high near 85.

Wednesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 65.

Thursday

A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Partly sunny, with a high near 85.

By metmike - June 8, 2018, 9:56 a.m.
Like Reply

It's been very dry in parts of the Cornbelt, especially IN/IL the past 60 days. Upcoming rains will hit the driest spots!

 I drove thru the entire state of Indiana on Sunday.  The crop, especially later planted is hurting bad for moisture in Central Indiana.  The rest of it looks ok, while the southern 1/3rd looks wonderful from recent rains. 


You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit %normal. 


You can see how big the dry pockets are right now. Since the crop ratings are near the best ever 78% GD/EX corn and 75% beans, clearly this dryness has not effected the condition of the overall crop yet.

After this weeks weather, crop ratings will likely drop a bit next Monday........from the dry places that don't get rains(which may come next week)

By metmike - June 8, 2018, 9:57 a.m.
Like Reply

Note the dryness below based on rains compared to normal over the past 4 weeks:

http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/cliwatch/drought/drought.jsp


Quick Drought Response Index (QuickDRI) 
       

Map for: June 3, 2018 (Week 22)

       
By metmike - June 8, 2018, 9:58 a.m.
Like Reply

The drought monitor, updated yesterday expanded the drought northeast into IL/IN/IA...........but upcoming rains will shrink it...........after they fall.


http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/


By metmike - June 8, 2018, 10:04 a.m.
Like Reply

                           

Comparing the last 2 weeks. Previous week, then this week.  Yellows expand across the I states. Drought monitor is a LONG term moisture measurement.

                       

Drought Monitor for conus




Drought Monitor for conus

By metmike - June 8, 2018, 10:07 a.m.
Like Reply


Rains from the last GFS thru 2 weeks.  Looks like a ton but amounts are less than before.

gfs_namer_384_precip_ptot.gif

   

    

 << Previous
By metmike - June 8, 2018, 10:09 a.m.
Like Reply

As always, the day 16 map of the operational GFS is more for entertainment but it builds a strong dome in. 

      

gfs_namer_384_200_wnd_ht_s.gif         gfs_namer_384_500_vort_ht
      gfs_namer_384_500_vort_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_384_1000_500_thick
      gfs_namer_384_1000_500_thick_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_384_850_temp_ht
      gfs_namer_384_850_temp_ht_s.gif
By metmike - June 8, 2018, 10:14 a.m.
Like Reply

The CFS week 3 and week 4 forecast has continued to insist on a major heat ridge during that period..............we know that a heat ridge will be somewhere but where?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif



Precip for weeks 3 and 4...................rains dry up.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAprec.gif

By metmike - June 8, 2018, 10:51 a.m.
Like Reply

Severe storm risk the next week:


Pretty stormy by June standards:

                                            

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Thompson/Broyles
Issued: 08/1250Z
Valid: 08/1300Z - 09/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Enhanced Risk        
      
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Dial
Issued: 08/0600Z
Valid: 09/1200Z - 10/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Slight Risk        
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Dial
Issued: 08/0731Z
Valid: 10/1200Z - 11/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Slight Risk
      
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook                 
                Forecaster: Dial
Issued: 08/0858Z
Valid: 11/1200Z - 15/1200Z
          Note: A severe weather area          depicted in the Day 4-8 period          indicates a 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms          (e.g. a 15%, 30% chance that a severe t
By Jim_M - June 8, 2018, 10:54 a.m.
Like Reply

It's been at least 2 weeks since I have gotten enough rain to wet the driveway in my part of Akron.  

My grass has stopped growing.  It's still greenish, but I'll only cut it this weekend because I like riding around on my tractor.  

The odds of rain in my nekka of da woods, over the weekend have been dropping the closer we get to it.  

By metmike - June 8, 2018, 1:57 p.m.
Like Reply

yeah, rains in the forecast for the past 2 months have not equated to rains in the gauge, on the crops or on the lawns.


I know that you like to follow the NWS extended models that will be coming out in a couple of hours. Here's a sneak preview:

NWS guidance for the extended range from GFS ensembles is pretty cool/bearish.

This is one (of many) time that I would not be betting the farm on it:


6-10 day period below


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/ens700_maps.d08.klnT.prb.gif


8-15 day period below

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/ens700_maps.d11.klnT.prb.gif


Rains for 6-10 day below...........dry in the Upper Midwest?

Wet elsewhere!!!!!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/sfc_count_sup610_prec.gif


Rains for the 8-11 day below.....drier in the upper Midwest/WCB.........don't be the farm on it.

Wet elsewhere!http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/sfc_count_sup814_prec.gif

By metmike - June 8, 2018, 2:03 p.m.
Like Reply

For your entertainment. The last GFS has much cooler/dry air pushing in late in week 2.

Ridge in the Rockies, deep trough in the East. 

Strong jet and northwest flow in to Midwest.        

      

          


            

      gfs_namer_384_200_wnd_ht
      gfs_namer_384_200_wnd_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_384_500_vort_ht
      gfs_namer_384_500_vort_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_384_1000_500_thick
      gfs_namer_384_1000_500_thick_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_384_850_temp_ht
      gfs_namer_384_850_temp_ht_s.gif
By metmike - June 8, 2018, 2:05 p.m.
Like Reply

Total rains for the next 2 weeks on the GFS......copious!

Will it rain 10 inches in S.MN?

Probably not but maybe somwhere if the pattern stalls for a few days. 


gfs_namer_384_precip_ptot.gif

   

    

 << Previou
By metmike - June 8, 2018, 2:14 p.m.
Like Reply

Look at all these solutions on the Canadian model ensembles for JUne 24th.  Anything is possible based on the variations.

The top map is the ensemble average.

One of the features that the individual ensembles agree the most on is a heat ridge some where in the south......but it could be in the Southeast, S.plains or Southwest.

Also, strong jet stream and deep upper low somewhere in the north.......anywhere from the West Coast to the East Coast.


    

        

384h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jun 24, 2018 12 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and

By Jim_M - June 8, 2018, 2:52 p.m.
Like Reply

All those maps start to look like something to hypnotize a person.  

By metmike - June 8, 2018, 3:02 p.m.
Like Reply

The dome of death is coming............The dome of death is coming........The dome of death is coming..........The dome of death is coming............The dome of death is coming........The dome of death is coming..........The dome of death is coming............The dome of death is coming........The dome of death is coming..........The dome of death is coming............The dome of death is coming........The dome of death is coming..........

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QdDbMnwqr1o


By metmike - June 8, 2018, 3:07 p.m.
Like Reply

Now that you are all under my control.  .............No more fighting about politics



By metmike - June 8, 2018, 3:14 p.m.
Like Reply

The NWS extended forecast just out was about as expected in the sneak preview earlier:

  6-10 day

Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

8-14 day below


Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - June 8, 2018, 3:17 p.m.
Like Reply

The experimental week 3 and week 4 forecast came out interesting. Hot for much of the country, especially west and turning dry again from the S.Plains to W.Cornbelt(areas with worst drought right now-which is part of why they went in that direction)


In the Summer, odds of hot and dry in any location are elevated if that area is in drought..............given whatever weather pattern is in place.

If the extended guidance has a 50% chance of rain over an area that is bone dry.............you can reduce that to 20%, depending on the pattern.


    

Week 3-4 Outlooks     
Valid: 23 Jun 2018 to 06 Jul 2018
Updated: 08 Jun 2018

Please provide comments using the online survey.

Temperature Probability


Week 3-4 Outlooks - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability
(Experimental)


 Week 3-4 Outlooks - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - June 8, 2018, 3:26 p.m.
Like Reply
By metmike - June 8, 2018, 4:11 p.m.
Like Reply

Extreme weather threats in 3-7 day period:

 

 

          United States 3-7 Day Hazards Outlook


Re: Weather
0 likes
By cutworm - June 8, 2018, 6:49 p.m.
Like Reply

Harleyed again! Rain just north and east of here in last few hours.Got a "trace last night When the storm petered out just as it got here. McFarm probably  got nothing.

Re: Re: Weather
0 likes
By mcfarm - June 8, 2018, 9:45 p.m.
Like Reply

right you are mcfarm got nothing....times 2 tonite so far

By cutworm - June 8, 2018, 9:54 p.m.
Like Reply

Harleyed again for the second time in one day. Can hear the thunder and see the lighting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4Ao-iNPPUc

Just a few of the boys having a little fun!