Friday Weather
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Started by metmike - Dec. 6, 2019, 10:30 a.m.

19 Days until Christmas! Keep giving thanks to be living in the best time of human history.......every day of the year!

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2. 


Cold blast hitting late this weekend into next week.

Forecasts for 6z GFS ensemble was milder, pressuring boosting ng.  Latest European 768 hour forecast from Thur PM at the bottom.


Winter Weather Forecasts

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml

  Snowfall the next 7 days below.
Here are the latest hazards across the country.

                                                            Southern Florida NE Gulf N of 25N E of 87WGulf from 22N to 25N E of 87W including Straits of Florida NW Gulf including Stetson BankN Central Gulf including Flower Garden Banks Marine SanctuaryW Central Gulf from 22N to 26N W of 94WCentral Gulf from 22N to 26N between 87W and 94W Atlantic from 27N to 31N W of 77WAtlantic from 27N to 31N between 70W and 77WAtlantic from 27N to 31N between 65W and 70WBahamas N of 22N including the Cay Sal BankAtlantic from 22N to 27N E of Bahamas to 70W Tropical N Atlantic from 15N to 19N between 55W and 60WCaribbean N of 18N between 76W and 85W including the Cayman BasinCaribbean N of 18N between 76W and 85W including the Cayman BasinCaribbean approaches to the Windward PassageAtlantic S of 22N W of 70W including approaches to the Windward PassageNewport/Morehead City, NCBrownsville, TXCorpus Christi, TXHouston/Galveston, TXNew Orleans, LALake Charles, LAMobile, ALTallahassee, FLTampa, FLMiami, FLKey West, FLFlorida KeysMiami, FLMelbourne, FLJacksonville, FLCharleston, SCWilmington, NCBaltimore/Washington, DCWakefield, VAPhiladelphia/Mt. Holly, PA/NJNew York, NYBoston, MAGray/Portland, ME Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington MECoastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME out 25 NMWaters from Eastport ME to Stonington ME from 25 to 40 NMNortheast Minnesota and Northern WisconsinNorthern MichiganNorthern MichiganNorthern MichiganEast Central Wisconsin - Green BayEast Central Wisconsin - Green BaySouthern and Southeastern WisconsinNortheastern Illinois and Northwestern Indiana - ChicagoNorthern Indiana and Northwestern OhioSouthwestern MichiganNortheast Michigan - GaylordNortheast Michigan - GaylordNortheast Michigan - GaylordSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitNorthern OhioWestern New York - BuffaloWestern New York - Buffalo Northern MichiganLos Angeles, CASan Diego, CASan Francisco Bay Area/Monterey, CAEureka, CAMedford, ORPortland, ORSeattle, WALos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaSouth Central CaliforniaSan Francisco AreaWestern NevadaNorth Central CaliforniaNorthwest California CoastSouthwest Oregon and Northern CaliforniaNortheast Oregon and Southeast WashingtonNorthwest OregonNorthwest WashingtonEastern Washington and Northern IdahoSouthern Nevada, Southeastern California and Northwestern Arizona - Las VegasSouthwestern California - San DiegoCentral Arizona and California DesertsSoutheast ArizonaNorthern ArizonaUtahNorthern and Northeastern NevadaSouthwestern Idaho and Eastern OregonSoutheastern IdahoWestern Montana and Central IdahoCentral Montana - Great FallsNortheastern MontanaSoutheastern MontanaWestern WyomingSoutheastern Wyoming and Western NebraskaNortheastern ColoradoWestern Colorado and Eastern UtahSoutheastern ColoradoNorthern and Central New MexicoSouthern New Mexico and extreme Western Texas - El PasoTexas and OklahomaLubbock and South Plains TexasWestern Texas and Southeastern New MexicoWestern South Dakota and Northeastern WyomingNorthwestern Kansas and East Central Colorado - GoodlandCentral Nebraska - North PlatteNorth Central Kansas and South Central NebraskaSoutheastern South Dakota, Southwestern Minnesota, and Northwestern IowaNorthern and Northeastern South DakotaWestern North DakotaEastern Nebraska and Southwestern Iowa - Omaha ValleyNortheastern KansasSoutheastern KansasSouthwestern Kansas - Dodge CityCentral OklahomaEastern Oklahoma and Northwestern ArkansasDallas and Fort WorthCentral Texas - San AngeloAustin and San Antonio TexasCorpus Christi, Victoria, and Laredo TexasSouthern TexasTexas - Houston/GalvestonSoutheast Texas and Southwest LouisianaNorthern Louisiana and Eastern Texas - ShreveportArkansasSouthwestern MissouriNorthwestern MissouriCentral IowaSouthern MinnesotaNortheastern North Dakota and Northwestern MinnesotaNortheast Minnesota and Northern WisconsinSouthwestern Wisconsin, Southeastern Minnesota, and Northeast IowaEastern Iowa and Northwestern Illinois - Quad CitiesEastern Missouri - West Central IllinoisWestern Tennessee, Eastern Arkansas and Northern Mississippi - MemphisCentral MississippiSoutheastern LouisianaMiddle TennesseeNorthern AlabamaCentral AlabamaMobile - PensacolaWest Central FloridaEast Central FloridaPanhandle of Florida and Southwestern GeorgiaNortheast Florida and Southeast GeorgiaNorthern and Central GeorgiaLow Country of South Carolina and GeorgiaNortheastern South Carolina and Southeastern North Carolina - WilmingtonCentral South Carolina and CSRAWestern North Carolina and Northwest South CarolinaEastern TennesseeEastern KentuckyCentral KentuckySouthern Illinois and Indiana, Southeastern Missouri and Western KentuckyCentral and East Central IllinoisCentral IndianaNortheastern Illinois and Northwestern Indiana - ChicagoSouthern and Southeastern WisconsinEast Central Wisconsin - Green BayNorthern MichiganNortheast Michigan - GaylordNortheast Michigan - GaylordSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitSouthwestern MichiganNorthern Indiana and Northwestern OhioSouthwestern Ohio Northern KentuckyWest VirginiaWestern Virginia, Southeast West Virginia, and Northwest North CarolinaCentral North Carolina - RaleighEastern North CarolinaEastern Virginia, Southern Maryland and Northeast North CarolinaWashington D.C., Central Maryland, Northern Virginia, Eastern West VirginiaWestern Pennsylvania, East Central Ohio and Extreme Western MarylandNorthern OhioCentral PennsylvaniaNew Jersey, Delaware, and Southeastern PennsylvaniaNew York City and Surrounding AreasSouth Central New York and Northeastern PennsylvaniaWestern New York - BuffaloEastern New York and Western New England AreasBoston and Surrounding AreasNorthern Vermont and New YorkSouthern Maine and New HampshireNorthern Maine Gulf of Maine to the Hague LineGeorges Bank between Cape Cod and 68W north of 1000 fathomsSouth of New England between the Great South Channel and Montauk Point to 1000 fathomsSouth of Long Island between Montauk Point and Sandy Hook to 1000 fathomsHudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon to 1000 fathomsBaltimore Canyon to Cape Charles Light to 100 NM offshoreCape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light to 100 NM offshoreCurrituck Beach Light to Cape Hatteras to 100 NM offshoreCape Hatteras to Cape Fear to 100 NM offshoreCape Fear to 31N to 1000 FMGeorges Bank between 68W and the Hague LineEast of 69W to the Hague Line between 1000 fathoms and 39NEast of 69W and south of 39N to 250 NM offshoreBetween 1000 fathoms and 38.5N west of 69WBaltimore Canyon to 69W east of 1000 fathoms and south of 38.5N to 250 NM offshoreBaltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon between 100 NM and 250 NM offshoreHatteras Canyon to Cape Fear 100 NM and 250 NM offshoreCape Fear to 31N east of 1000 fathoms to 250 NM offshoreCape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreCape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreCape Lookout to Florence, OR between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreFlorence, OR to Point St. George between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePoint St. George to Point Arena between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePoint Arena to Pigeon Point between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePoint Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreSanta Cruz Island, CA to San Clemente Island, CA between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreCape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreCape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreCape Lookout to Florence, OR between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreFlorence, OR to Point St. George between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePoint St. George to Point Arena between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePoint Arena to Pigeon Point between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePoint Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreSanta Cruz Island, CA to 120W between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreSan Clemente Island, CA to Guadalupe Island from 60 NM Offshore west to 120W    Juneau, AK    Fairbanks, AK    Anchorage, AK    Western US Arctic Offshore    Eastern US Arctic Offshore    Bering Sea offshore 171 degrees West to 180 degrees and north of 56 degrees North    Bering Sea offshore 171 degrees West to 180 degrees and south of 56 degrees North    Pribilof Islands (St. Paul and St. George)    Bering Sea offshore east of 171 degrees West    Gulf of Alaska offshore north of 57 degrees North and west of 144 degrees West    Gulf of Alaska offshore south of 57 degrees North north of 55 degrees North and west of 144 degrees West    Gulf of Alaska north of 55 degrees North and east of 144 degrees West Juneau, AKHonolulu, HIHawaiian Offshore WatersHawaiian Offshore Waters                                                                                     
                            


Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind,  Green is flooding. Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory.  

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/                 Go to "hazards"                                                                                     

                   



 

https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/us_air_temperature/air_temperature


https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/wind_chill_heat_index1/air_temperature



 Current Weather Map


NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop
NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion
NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion

 

       
Understanding These Maps
Surface Map Legend
Precip Legend
NCEP Surface Maps
(Mouseover)

U.S. Surface Analysis
National Radar Image
12-Hr Forecast
24-Hr Forecast
36-Hr Forecast
48-Hr Forecast
Short Term Loop
Day 3 Forecast
Day 4 Forecast
Day 5 Forecast
Day 6 Forecast
Day 7 Forecast
Low Tracks Error Circle
Low Tracks Ensemble





Legend

                                        

                          


Current Jet Stream


Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning

                    

                    

                    


                                        

Highs today and tomorrow.


   

                                    

Comments
By metmike - Dec. 6, 2019, 10:33 a.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:


A frigid blast affects the northern half the most next week.


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gif

                                    

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

                                    

By metmike - Dec. 6, 2019, 10:34 a.m.
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Temperatures vs average for days 3-7.  


Bone chilling cold Upper Midwest, moderating south.




https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/95Bwbg.gif

                                    

By metmike - Dec. 6, 2019, 10:36 a.m.
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Surface Weather features day 3-7:


Strong cold front/blast on Sunday with a reinforcement early next week,  then very cold high pressure.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

                                    

                                    

By metmike - Dec. 6, 2019, 10:37 a.m.
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Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.



Mostly dry Midwest the next week.


Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971

                                    

By metmike - Dec. 6, 2019, 10:38 a.m.
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Last 24 hour precip top map

Last 7 day precip below that

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/precipitation/dailyStatic mapStatic map

By metmike - Dec. 6, 2019, 10:39 a.m.
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Current Dew Points


Current Dew Points

                                    

Latest radar loop


http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

                       


 

Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop

  


 (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
Go to: Most Recent Image

      

Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image

                                  

    You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:


https://water.weather.gov/precip/


                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

By metmike - Dec. 6, 2019, 10:39 a.m.
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Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#

                            

Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif

                                    

By metmike - Dec. 6, 2019, 10:40 a.m.
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Drought Monitor maps:

Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.

In july/August/Sept/Oct, it's typical to see some increase in drought because of  evaporation, seasonally exceeding low rainfall during those months. However, this year saw a HUGE increase in the Southeast!

December 5: DROUGHT the last  2 months has really shrunk. One area to watch is sw Kansas and S.Plains for the Winter wheat crop but it's going dormant right now.

The maps below are updated on Thursdays.


      https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/    

                                                Drought Monitor for conus                  

Drought Monitor for conus

                            










By metmike - Dec. 6, 2019, 10:49 a.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average,  the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

End of week 2....................0z  Canadian ensembles:

Updated 12z maps available this late...........turning colder late week 2 vs previous solutions. Potential for another polar vortex incursion south...on some solutions, mainly this particular model!

Staring with last week below:


Friday: Zonal, mild west to east flow. Pretty strong agreement.

Saturday: No change from yesterday.

Sunday:  Major cold still cut off. 

Monday: Noteworthy changes in the last 24 hours, all of them colder but not yet extremely cold. More troughing in the middle of the country on the mean below and possible cross polar flow......or at least high Arctic north to south flow on this side of the N.Hemisphere  dumping extreme cold into Canada to replace previously mild conditions there. This means cold fronts can be REALLY cold now in week 2 vs a moderate brand of mild (for Winter) Canadian cold. 

Tuesday: Similar to Monday

Wednesday:  Modest ridge West/trough downstream, similar to before. Will mild Pacific flow/southern stream(with upper ridge in very far Southeast?) or colder northern stream dominate.  A battle will be taking place with big changes/fluctuations. 

Thursday: Similar to recent days. Battle between northern and southern stream. A tad more upper level ridging far southeast on some members.

Friday: Another tad stronger with the far Southeast upper level ridge that will modulate the southern stream..........but the northern stream is also stronger on some solutions with cold aimed at the Upper Midwest.  Small changes in the solutions will result in huge temp forecast changes for some locations.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Dec 21, 2019 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)

By metmike - Dec. 6, 2019, 10:49 a.m.
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0Z GFS(American model) Ensembles at 2 weeks:

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/f360.gif

                                    

By metmike - Dec. 6, 2019, 10:52 a.m.
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GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above).  The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast


Thursday:  Good ridge/west, trough east couplet in Canada to force cold to move south thru Canada to Northern US.  Not as favorable dynamics for cold as you head farther south.

Friday: Similar to yesterday. Good for very cold air to make it to the US border but how far south will it penetrate without moderating a great deal?
NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast producthttps://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850anom_f360_nhbg.gif

                                   

                                    

By metmike - Dec. 6, 2019, 10:53 a.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.

Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t

Discussions, starting with a week ago.




Last Friday: Very Positive AO and NAO mean mild temps/no cold air delivery from the north. Dropping late week 2 but still positive. PNA decreases from positive to just below 0 late.

Saturday. Positive AO but a change from yesterday late week 2 as it plunges. Mainly from several members fairly negative.   The actual pattern still favor +AO regime. NAO is also positive/mild but drop towards 0 at the end of 2 weeks. PNA slightly positive. Overall, at least well into week 2, indicators are favorable for mild temps.                              

Sunday: AO and NAO stay positive thru 2 weeks(some fairly positive values early in the period) this makes frigid outbreaks extremely unlikely. PNA slightly positive(warm West)

Monday: AO drops down to near zero by then end of week 2 for the first time in a long while.........portending a potential change that allows frigid air to move from high latitudes southward. Still slightly +NAO will make it tough for that cold to penetrate deeply south and east. Slight positive  PNA with modest ridging out West(warm and dry).

Tuesday:     Similar to Monday. AO and NAO still stay just above zero which makes the extent of the cold outbreaks uncertain.

Wednesday: AO, NAO and PNA are all positive but close to zero at the end of 2 weeks, so not powerful indicators then.

Thursday: Positive AO and NAO drop towards 0 late week 2.  PNA a tad positive. Nothing profound to affect forecast philosophy in a meaningful way. 

Friday: Similar to Thursday. 

By metmike - Dec. 6, 2019, 10:53 a.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

 Updated daily just after 2pm Central.


Temperature Probability


6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability Precipitation Probability


  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


  


the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

                                    

By metmike - Dec. 6, 2019, 10:54 a.m.
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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/temp_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png

                                    


By metmike - Dec. 6, 2019, 10:55 a.m.
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Just for entertainment, let's look at the just updated European model monthly- 768 hour- outlook, from Thursday PM,  850 mb temperatures, which is around a mile up. Starting with December 16th and going out to January 5th...... every 24 hours.

The big cold snaps on the last run that were to start hitting just before Christmas are not there on this run.























 

By metmike - Dec. 6, 2019, 3:15 p.m.
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     Big change to much milder the last 24 hours.


Week 3-4 Outlooks     
Valid: 21 Dec 2019 to 03 Jan 2020
Updated: 06 Dec 2019

Please provide comments using the online survey.

Temperature Probability


Week 3-4 Outlooks - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability
(Experimental)


 Week 3-4 Outlooks - Precipitation Probability  

Click HERE for information about how to read Week 3-4 outlook