KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, November 15, 2019
8:30 AM ET. November Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (expected 5.0; previous 4.0)
Employment Idx (previous 7.6)
New Orders Idx (previous 3.5)
Prices Received (previous 6.3)
8:30 AM ET. October Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous -0.3%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous -0.1%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0%)
8:30 AM ET. October Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (expected -0.2%; previous +0.2%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -0.1%)
Petroleum Prices (previous +2.3%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 487.9)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1807.4K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 360.6K)
9:15 AM ET. October Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (expected -0.5%; previous -0.4%)
Capacity Utilization % (expected 77.0%; previous 77.5%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous -0.4)
10:00 AM ET. September Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (expected +0.1%; previous +0%)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was higher in overnight trading after a senior American official signaled progresson a trade deal between the U.S. and China. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8135.01 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 8308.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8135.01. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7947.10.
The December S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally into uncharted territory. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3056.87 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3110.60. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3088.21. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3056.87.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were lower overnight as they consolidate some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 158-23 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off October's high, the 62% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 153-06 is the next downside target. First resistance the 20-day moving average crossing at 158-23. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 160-13. First support is the 50% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 155-25. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 153-06.
December T-notes were lower overnight as they consolidate some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 129.091 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off October's high, the 50% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 127.171 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 129.091. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 129.275. First support is the 50% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 127.171. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 126.122.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
December crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The aforementioned trading range indicates that U.S. inventories along with new production elsewhere indicates that global supplies remain comfortable at the present time. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 58.25 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 55.59 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 57.88. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 58.25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 55.59. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 52.46.
December heating oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off the late-October low, the September 19th high crossing at 201.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 185.94 would open the door for a possible test of October's low crossing at 181.51. First resistance is October's high crossing at 197.99. Second resistance is the September 19th high crossing at 201.38. First support is the reaction low crossing at 185.94. Second support is October's low crossing at 181.51.
December unleaded gas was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 158.85 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 171.96 is the next upside target.First resistance is November's high crossing at 168.43. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 171.96. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 158.85. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 154.17.
December Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at 2.570 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above Monday's gap crossing at 2.755 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is Monday's gap crossing at 2.755. Second resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 2.905. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 2.570. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2.413.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the October 15th high crossing at 98.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.62 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the October 15th high crossing at 98.38. Second resistance is the October 8th high crossing at 98.96. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.62. Second support is October's low crossing at 96.88.
The December Euro was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, the October 8th low crossing at 109.92 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.16 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.16. Second resistance is the the 50% retracement level of the June-October-decline crossing at 112.48. First support is the October 8th low crossing at 109.92. Second support is October's low crossing at 109.38.
The December British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.3161 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off October's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2649 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.2958. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.3161. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.2782. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2649.
The December Swiss Franc was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1.0182 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off October's high, October's low crossing at 1.0029 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.0182. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 1.0205. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.0045. Second support is October's low crossing at 1.0029.
The December Canadian Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, October's low crossing at 74.96 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.03 would confirm that a short-term bearish outlook.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.03. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 76.26. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 75.35. Second support is October's low crossing at 74.97.
The December Japanese Yen was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0928 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off August's high, April's low crossing at 0.0907 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0928. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0929. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 0.0915. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.0907.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1497.10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 50% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1426.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1543.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1566.20. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1446.20. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1426.60.
December silver was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.547 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.664 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.664. Second resistance is the October's high crossing at 18.350. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.547. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 15.859.
December copper was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 257.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 266.45 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 273.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the July-September-decline crossing at 276.34. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 261.30. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 257.30.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-days.The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, the September 18th low crossing at 3.80 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.92 1/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.07 3/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.20 3/4. First support is the September 18th low crossing at 3.80 3/4. Second support is September low crossing at 3.65 3/4.
March wheat was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off October's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.06 3/4 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.44 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 5.39 1/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.44 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.06 3/4. Second support is the October's low crossing at 4.92 1/4.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down 2 1/2-cents at 4.22 1/4.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.14 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.70 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-declinecrossing at 4.53 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.70 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.14 3/4. Second support is the October 31st low crossing at 4.10.
March Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, the 75% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 5.18 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.41 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.43 1/2. Second resistance is October 24th high crossing at 5.63. First support is the 75% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 5.18. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 5.09 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
January soybeans were lower in overnight trading.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off October's high, the 62% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 9.00 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.32 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.32 1/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 9.59 1/2. First support is the 50% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 9.12. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 9.00 3/4.
January soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 309.00 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the September 27th low crossing at 296.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level crossing at 315.50. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 320.70. First support is the September 27th low crossing at 296.30. Second support is September's low crossing at 293.80.
March soybean oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 30.66 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 31.72 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 32.44. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 32.45. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 30.66. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 30.04.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
December hogs closed down $0.38 at $62.75.
December hogs closed lower on Thursday as it extends the August-November trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple close above the 50-day moving average crossing at 66.71 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 57.75 is the next downside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 72.73. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-September-decline crossing at 73.89. First support is today's low crossing at 62.67. Second support September's low crossing at 57.75.
December cattle closed up $0.98 at 119.08.
December cattle closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 117.46 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at 120.85 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 120.33. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at 120.85. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 117.46. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.92.
January Feeder cattle closed up $1.23-cents at $144.05.
January Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 143.46 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If January extends the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 151.31 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 146.85. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 151.31.First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 143.46. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 139.02.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are poised to turn neutral to bearish with additional weakness. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of the July-October-decline crossing at 11.26 is the next upside target.
December cocoa closed higher on Thursday as it extends this week's rally to a new high for the month. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the May 2018 high crossing at 28.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.03 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March sugar posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, October's high crossing at 12.93 is the next upside target. Closes below 50-day moving average crossing at 12.39 would confirm that a top has been posted.
December cotton closed slightly higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 67.19 is the next upside target. If December extends the decline off this month's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.63 is the next downside target.
Thanks tallpine!
Good weather for grains and coffee.
Cold for natural gas but models are changing alot.